Royals’ biggest flop to begin 2026 MLB season

The Kansas City Royals really thought they could make the playoffs in 2026. After finishing 82-80 in 2025 and just missing the playoffs, GM J.J. Picollo changed the bullpen, fixed the outfield, and hoped that the team’s core players would take the next step. Vinnie Pasquantino, the 28-year-old first baseman who hit.264 with 32 home runs and .798 OPS in 2025, was at the center of that hope.

He firmly established himself as one of the most dangerous power bats in the American League Central. People thought it would be another huge year. The truth is that during the first two weeks of the regular season, he has a .153 batting average, no home runs, and an OPS of just .415, the worst qualified slash line of any Royals player who has had a lot of plate appearances.

In a lineup that desperately needs its middle-of-the-order bats to produce early, Pasquantino’s cold start has been the single biggest individual flop of Kansas City’s 7-9 beginning to the 2026 campaign.

A Drop-Off That Nobody Saw Coming

The numbers aren’t just bad; they show one of the biggest drops in a single season for any established power bat in the league. Pasquantino ended 2025 with a .506 slugging percentage and was expected to hit about his career average of .262 with more than 25 home runs in 2026. His slugging percentage has dropped to .169, and his wOBA has dropped to .212, which is almost 200 points lower than it was in 2025. His Statcast profile tells a similar scary story: his barrel rate is only 2.4%, down from 8.6% for his career, and his hard-hit rate is 28.6%, down from 40% for his career.

What makes this particularly hard to stomach for Royals fans is the contrast with how Pasquantino looked before the regular season started. He put together an outstanding World Baseball Classic run with Team Italy, going 4-for-22 with three home runs, four RBIs, and seven walks across four games, flashing every bit of the locked-in swing that powered his 2025 breakout.

His approach was sharp, his pull-air percentage was trending in the right direction, and all the indicators pointed toward a fast start. The switch has been flipped off since Opening Day, and nobody, not Pasquantino, not manager Matt Quatraro, not the organization, has been able to explain exactly why.

His wRC+ of 48 ranks as the worst among all Royals hitters with 10 or more plate appearances, and his -0.1 fWAR makes him an active below-replacement player at a position the Royals need maximum production from to survive a murderer’s row AL Central schedule.

The Lineup Can’t Absorb the Slack

The Pasquantino problem doesn’t exist in isolation, it’s been compounded by struggles throughout the Royals’ lineup that have turned their early games into a familiar, frustrating pattern. Kansas City opened 2026 with a 6-0 shutout loss to Atlanta on Opening Day, with the bottom third of their order going a combined 0-for-12 with one walk.

Salvador Perez, hitting cleanup directly behind Pasquantino, has offered little help, slashing just .153/.219/.288 through 16 games, with a 38 wRC+ that is worse than Pasquantino’s own mark. When your three and four hitters are both posting sub-.200 batting averages and near-replacement-level production, it becomes almost impossible for even a lineup as talented at the top as Kansas City’s to generate any sustained offensive rhythm.

Bobby Witt Jr., the franchise cornerstone and the engine the entire offense runs through, endured his own early slump before recently finding his footing, leaving the Royals going through entire stretches of games where their middle of the order produced virtually nothing. The result has been a team that leads the AL Central in left-on-base runners, consistently manufacturing opportunities and then letting them die.

Can Pasquantino Right the Ship?

The silver lining, and it’s a real one, is that Pasquantino has historically been one of the slowest April starters in baseball. His career splits are a significant comfort: he is routinely a below-average hitter in March and April before heating up dramatically from May onward, and his September/October numbers over his career hover near the .320 batting average range. Locked On Royals podcast host Jack Johnson noted pointedly that even when Pasquantino’s early-season numbers look ugly, “by June, all of his numbers even out.”

His underlying Statcast data also gives us some reason to be hopeful. His xwOBA of.261 is 49 points better than his actual wOBA, even though it’s still below his career average. This means that the results have been worse than the quality of the contact would suggest. The exit velocity is starting to go back up, and he’s still getting walks at a decent rate even though he’s been in a slump. This means that the approach hasn’t completely left him.

But the Royals are already 7-9 and in fourth place in a close race for the AL Central. Kansas City can’t afford to wait until June for Pasquantino to wake up, since the team thought they could end a two-year playoff drought this season. The hits need to start coming, and they need to start coming soon.