After a series win over the Seattle Mariners, the Royals welcomed the New York Yankees for a Memorial Day game to kick off a three-game series. The Royals held a 4-3 lead going into the ninth inning, meaning Lucas Erceg was called upon to close the game out. He did not close the game out. It started with a single from Paul Goldschmidt, then a double from Jazz Chisholm, and finally a two-RBI single from Anthony Volpe. The Yankees would win the first game 4-3.
That outing for Erceg has been the epitome of his season so far when things go bad. It has been tough sledding recently for Erceg as in his last five outings, he has allowed seven runs (six earned) and seen his ERA rise from 3.31 to 5.06 on the year. Now, a couple of bad outings can make numbers for relievers look bad, so let’s dive into the profile of the 2026 version of Lucas Erceg.
The Basic Numbers Paint Part of the Issue
As noted earlier, Erceg currently carries an ERA of 5.06 and a WHIP of 1.69, which is not ideal as a core part of the Royals’ arm barn. Looking at the rate stats, Erceg doesn’t have particularly great numbers for a guy who has shown a ton of closer potential. His K-rate stands at 19.4%, his walk-rate is at 14.0%, and he has yet to allow a long ball this season. To make matters a tad worse, his left-on-base rate (LOB%) lies at 61.1%. Only one of those numbers is great, while the other three are major concerns for Erceg.
There are some standard numbers that give Erceg the benefit of the doubt; however, as his FIP (fielding independent pitching) stands at 3.21, mainly due to the long ball prevention. Erceg also has the second-best fWAR value in the Royals bullpen at 0.4, behind Daniel Lynch IV at 0.6.
The basic numbers give us a foundation to work with, so let’s dive just a little deeper.
Back of the Bullpen Relievers Need Chase and Whiff
When fans think of the top bullpen arms throughout baseball history, what/who do they think of? Starting with the obvious of Mariano Rivera dominating with his cutter, Trevor Hoffman with his changeup, or even Craig Kimbrel and his fastball. They also think relievers in those high-leverage roles can get strikeouts when they need them. Issue is, Erceg isn’t really doing that.
Currently, his chase rate is at 26.7%, good for the 22nd percentile, and His whiff rate stands at 20.7%, good for the 19th percentile. That makes sense given the elevated walk rate and lower strikeout rate. There is another issue for Erceg as well with his pitch repertoire that also helps explain the lack of strikeouts.
To put it bluntly, it is hard to get strikeouts when batters are hitting most of your pitches. Per the Baseball Savant run value chart, Erceg has one pitch that has a positive value, his sinker at +3. The other pitches, the 4-seam, slider, and changeup, are at -2 or -3. On the 4-seam, batters are hitting for both average (.333) and power (.476 slugging). The slider is being hit at a .259 rate, but not being slugged at a high rate at .333. His changeup has been his worst pitch allowing batters to hit .455 and slug it at a .636 rate.
His best whiff pitch has been his slider at 30.2%, but batters have been able to hit it for a decent average. The reason for that probably lies with his absurdly high .371 BABIP. To put how high that number is, in 2004, Ichiro Suzuki hit for a .372 clip to claim that season’s batting title. Pretty much if the ball is in play, opposing batters are hitting at a similar rate to batting champs from 20 years ago.
The numbers so far haven’t painted Erceg in the brightest of lights, but he does do a good job of missing barrels and getting groundballs. Now, time to dive deeper into a trend that began last season.
2026 Erceg is a Worse Version of 2025 Erceg
Now, some readers might raise their eyebrows after that subheader. Erceg was one of the better setup men in baseball behind closer Carlos Estevez. How can this season be similar to last? Well, looking at his 2025 savant percentile to this season the only things that change are his walk, whiff, and chase rates, which are more league average in 2025.
The plate discipline numbers also tell a similar tale. In 2025, Erceg had a contact rate of 77.2% and a zone% of 50.9. Both numbers are pretty solid. This year, he has a contact rate of 81.5% and a zone% of 46.1%. Both are not ideal for someone of his caliber. That is a big concern, but it might not be the biggest one in the chart.
His called strike-swinging strike rate (CSW%) lies at 21.5% this season compared to 26.0% last season. That is due to an absurdly low swinging strike rate of 8.9%. It also doesn’t help that Erceg isn’t getting as many first pitch strikes this season at 58.1% compared to 64.3% last season. In laymens terms, batters are waiting for Erceg to come into the zone and they don’t miss often.
2025 was an odd season in general for Erceg as he became more of a groundball pitcher rather than the powerhouse he was when the Royals picked him up at the 2024 deadline. Since 2024, his K-rate has been below 20% despite not losing significant velo or stuff+. 2025 was a season where Erceg used his defense a ton while not relying on his stuff to get batters out, and in 2026 it is the same except worse.
Conclusion
Lucas Erceg has been both unlucky and slightly worse in a fair number of statistical categories. The issue lies in the fact that in his career, he has been able to strike out over 25% of batters outside of 2025 and 2026. That stems from the lack of swing and miss in his game since 2025. Erceg is having a weird season that could qualify as just bad luck, but a closer with little to no whiff ability shown this season was bound to have hiccups like this, and it leaves the Royals with another issue to add to the list.
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