The Cincinnati Reds are two games over .500 in the 2026 season, yet they’re in last place in the loaded NL Central heading into Monday’s series opener with the Kansas City Royals.
The 2026 season has not gone to plan for Kansas City, as it’s already 15 games under .500 and currently on a six-game losing streak. Bobby Witt Jr. and company rank 26th in MLB in Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) on offense, and KC has a 4.54 team ERA (seventh-worst in MLB).
It doesn’t get much worse than that, though the Reds are 27th in MLB in team ERA, which could open the door for the Royals to end this losing streak during this series.
That may not happen as soon as Monday, though. Chase Burns (1.96 ERA) looks to continue his NL Cy Young-caliber season for the Reds in this matchup against Royals opener Luinder Avila (5.06 ERA), who is starting for the second time in the 2026 season.
Here’s a look at the odds, this pitching matchup, a prop bet and my prediction for this series opener on June 1.
Royals vs. Reds Odds, Run Line and Total
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
Run Line
- Royals +1.5 (-116)
- Reds -1.5 (-104)
Moneyline
Total
- 8.5 (Over -117/Under -103)
Royals vs. Reds Probable Pitchers
- Kansas City: Luinder Avila (0-2, 5.06 ERA)
- Cincinnati: Chase Burns (7-1, 1.96 ERA)
Royals vs. Reds How to Watch
- Date: Monday, June 1
- Time: 7:10 p.m. EST
- Venue: Great American Ball Park
- How to Watch (TV): Gray Media, Reds.TV, Royals.TV, WXIX FOX19
- Royals record: 22-37
- Reds record: 30-28
Royals vs. Reds Best MLB Prop Bets
Reds Best MLB Prop Bet
- Sal Stewart to Hit a Home Run (+337)
Sal Stewart has been impressive in his rookie season, and I’m eyeing him as one of my favorite home run props on Monday night:
Cincinnati Reds rookie Sal Stewart has 12 home runs in the 2026 season, and he’s hitting .364 with a pair of homers over the last two weeks.
On Monday, Stewart takes on the Kansas City Royals, who will have Luinder Avila on the mound as an opener. Kansas City’s bullpen has struggled in the 2026 campaign, ranking 29th in ERA (5.14) while allowing 30 home runs.
So, this could be a solid matchup for Stewart if the Royals trot out several bullpen arms on Monday. The rookie has homered eight times against right-handed pitching and four times against left-handed pitching, so I’m not too worried about specific matchups in this contest.
Royals vs. Reds Prediction and Pick
This season, Burns has been lights out for the Reds, ranking in the 84th percentile in expected ERA, the 87th percentile in expected batting average against, the 93rd percentile in whiff percentage and the 87th percentile in strikeout percentage.
Cincy is 8-3 in his starts, and the Reds’ ace has allowed two or fewer earned runs in 10 of his 11 outings. So, it makes sense that Cincy is a sizable favorite at home against this struggling Royals team.
Avila hasn’t been great in the 2026 season, and the Royals’ bullpen has struggled as a whole, ranking 29th in MLB in ERA. The ‘pen is going to be taxed on Monday night, and Cincinnati (21st in wRC+) may be able to get enough run support for Burns to win this game with ease.
Despite falling to last place in the NL Central, the Reds remain one of the best teams on the run line in MLB this season, going 33-25 (covering 56.9 percent of the time). The Royals, on the other hand, are just 23-36 on the run line, which is the third-worst mark in the league.
So, I don’t mind taking the Reds to win by two or more runs on Monday night with Burns on the mound.
Pick: Reds -1.5 (-104 at DraftKings)
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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