The Tampa Bay Rays and Kansas City Royals wrap up a four-game set on Thursday afternoon, and Tampa Bay is looking to salvage a split after losing on Monday and Tuesday.
The Royals are in last place in the AL Central and 10 games under .500 on the road, but oddsmakers only have them as +119 underdogs in this series finale with Seth Lugo (3.69 ERA) on the mound.
Lugo’s advanced numbers are pretty shaky this season – he ranks in the 15th percentile in expected ERA – but the Royals have won seven of his 15 outings.
Meanwhile, Tampa Bay is going with a bullpen game on Thursday with Casey Legumina (3.45 ERA) getting the start.
Let’s take a look at the betting odds, a player prop to consider and my prediction for this series finale on June 25.
Royals vs. Rays Odds, Run Line and Total
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
Run Line
- Royals +1.5 (-185)
- Rays -1.5 (+152)
Moneyline
Total
- 8.5 (Over -107/Under -113)
Royals vs. Rays Probable Pitchers
- Kansas City: Seth Lugo (3-4, 3.69 ERA)
- Tampa Bay: Casey Legumina (2-1, 3.45 ERA)
Royals vs. Rays How to Watch
- Date: Thursday, June 25
- Time: 12:10 p.m. EST
- Venue: Tropicana Field
- How to Watch (TV): Rays.TV/Royals.TV
- Royals record: 34-47
- Rays record: 44-33
Royals vs. Rays Best MLB Prop Bets
Royals Best MLB Prop Bet
- Seth Lugo UNDER 4.5 Strikeouts (-138)
This season, the Rays are averaging just 7.31 strikeouts per game, which is good for the second-best mark in MLB.
So, this is a tough matchup for Lugo, who has not been great when it comes to racking up punchouts in 2026. The Royals right-hander has just 66 K’s in 85.1 innings of work, ranking in the fourth percentile in whiff percentage and the 25th percentile in strikeout percentage.
Lugo has failed to pick up five or more punchouts in each of his three starts in June, and he didn’t pick up a single K in six innings his last time out. Overall, the veteran has failed to clear this line in eight of his 15 starts. I think he’s an easy fade candidate against this Tampa Bay offense.
Royals vs. Rays Prediction and Pick
I targeted this game in today’s edition of Walk-Off Wagers – our daily MLB best bets column – as the Rays have been dominant at home in 2026:
The Rays need a win to split their four-game set with the Royals, and they’re rolling with a bullpen game on Thursday afternoon.
While Tampa Bay’s ‘pen (4.59 ERA) has struggled a bit in the 2026 season, I still think the Rays are deserving favorites at home against this Royals team with Seth Lugo on the mound.
Kansas City is 7-8 in Lugo’s starts this season and he has a 3.69 ERA. However, the right-hander’s advanced numbers are much shakier than that. Lugo has an expected ERA of 5.20 (which ranks in the 15th percentile) and he ranks in the 11th percentile in expected BAA, fourth percentile in whiff percentage and the 19th percentile in barrel percentage.
Tampa Bay has been pretty dominant at home (27-12) so far this season while the Royals are 10 games under .500 on the road and currently in last place in the AL Central. Even though Kansas City took the first two games of this series, I think Tampa Bay is a no-brainer bet on Thursday afternoon.
Pick: Rays Moneyline (-143 at DraftKings)
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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