Cardinals send Dustin May to the mound against Royals in a matchup that could favor the under

Happy Father’s Day to everyone out there. It is by far the best thing I’ve ever done in my life, and I hope everyone who gets the opportunity to be a father, dad, stepdad, grandpa, uncle, whatever, recognizes the gift it is and celebrates today. One way I am celebrating is by heading back to the diamond and playing the St. Louis Cardinals and Kansas City Royals game.

The Cardinals were supposed to have another losing year. In the offseason, they traded away their best pitcher, Sonny Gray. They sent away their two best veteran hitters in Nolan Arenado and Willson Contreras. Was it addition by subtraction? I doubt it. I think it is that the youth on the team is finally adapting and hitting the ball well. As a team, they are hitting .247 and have scored 4.5 runs per game. They have lost their past three games, and haven’t been amazing on the road this season. Still, there are a lot of reasons for optimism with the Cardinals.

Sunday, they send out Dustin May, who has been a pleasant surprise for St. Louis. May is 5-6 for the season with a 3.75 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP. His road and home splits are fairly even, but he does have a 5.73 ERA in day starts, which is a concern here.

Part of that can be that he doesn’t have enough time to do his normal routine. He was phenomenal in the last game. It was arguably the best start of his career – he allowed just one hit and one walk in a complete-game shutout against the San Diego Padres. He did face the Royals earlier this year and allowed four hits, three earned runs and four walks in six innings.

The Royals are going to be hitting their heads against the wall if they can’t turn things around this season. They were expected to be one of the best teams in the division, and lucky for them, there aren’t many truly good teams in the division. The bad news is they are 13 games below .500 and will need to get really hot if they want to make a push this season. I like the Royals roster, but they are underperforming. There really isn’t any other way to say it.

SHIRTLESS CARDINALS FANS TAKE OVER EMPTY SECTION IN ELECTRIC SCENE DURING WALK-OFF WIN OVER THE ROYALS

Kansas City Royals pitcher Stephen Kolek pitches during the first inning against the Houston Astros at Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City, Mo., on June 14, 2026. (Jay Biggerstaff/Imagn Images)

Their pitching staff is likely to blame, but the Royals and Cardinals are very similar in stats for hitting and pitching. The Royals do have a higher ERA of 4.48 compared to 4.22. Today, they have Stephen Kolek taking the ball, and he has been one of their better starters this year. He has only made eight starts, but he has a 2.68 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP for the year. At home, he has been great, allowing just four earned runs over 27.1 innings. He faced St. Louis earlier in the year and allowed four hits and one walk over 6.1 scoreless innings.

This should be a game where the total goes under. I think both guys are pitching really well at the moment. Kolek seems locked in, and May hasn’t given up a run in his past 15 innings. I love looking at WHIP because I think it gives good insight into how much traffic is on the bases while they pitch. Neither of them is allowing a lot of players on the basepaths.

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Kansas City Royals’ Bobby Witt Jr. watches his sacrifice fly to score a run during the seventh inning against the Minnesota Twins in Kansas City, Mo., on April 10, 2025. (Charlie Riedel/AP Photo)

I’m going to take the under nine runs in this game. I also will take the Royals. I’ll do a full unit for each of these as I am confident in both. May is pitching during the day, which we’ve seen is a struggle for him this season. Kolek is great at home, and we get him as slight plus money. Give me the Royals and the under.

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