The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week, for the upcoming Billboard 200 dated Sept. 21, we look at the chances for KPop Demon Hunters to finally take its victory lap on the albums chart, if it can hold off a pop superstar’s surprise new release-slash-re-release.
KPop Demon Hunters Soundtrack (Visva/Republic): It’s remarkable both that we’re still talking about KPop Demon Hunters as a chart-topping contender nearly three months after its initial Netflix release — and also somewhat remarkable that after owning pop culture for close to the entire summer, the soundtrack still hasn’t reached the Billboard 200’s top spot. For most of that time, of course, it was stuck behind Morgan Wallen’s 13-week No. 1 I’m the Problem, but it finally snuck past that behemoth on last week’s chart — only to then get lapped by a pair of 300k-plus-bowing albums in consecutive weeks: Stray Kids’ Karma and Sabrina Carpenter’s Man’s Best Friend.
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Will next week’s chart finally mark HUNTR/X and Co.’s takedown of the Billboard 200? Well, the timing certainly would line up, as the set is getting a clear extra push for this week. For one thing, it’s finally getting its wide retail release on CD, with exclusive variants available at Target, Walmart and Barnes & Noble, each with a poster and a randomized photo card. A deluxe version of the album was also released digitally and to DSPs, featuring two additional tracks from the film (“Prologue (Hunter’s Mantra)” and “Jinu’s Lament”) as well as new singalong, instrumental and a cappella versions of the album’s seven big original hits.
Meanwhile, the real-life artists who provide the singing voices of the HUNTR/X trio have also been on the promotional trail. EJAE, Audrey Nuna and Rei Ami made a live in-store appearance at a Barnes and Noble in Manhattan on Saturday to sign CDs and take some photos. The trio also made its television debut on Sunday when they appeared at the MTV Video Music Awards at UBS Arena in Long Island, presenting best album to Sabrina Carpenter (though for 2024’s Short n’ Sweet, not the album that held them at No. 2 on the Billboard 200 this week).
Could it add up to the album at long last reaching No. 1 in its 12th week on the chart? It should post its strongest overall numbers yet, at the very least, as the songs are all still doing very well on streaming — though they’re maybe finally starting to slip a little in the daily rankings, so the KPDH cast would be well-served to really seize this week as their moment.
Justin Bieber, Swag (ILH/Def Jam): While the lane has finally opened for KPop Demon Hunters on the Billboard 200, another “Speed Demon” from the Republic family is zooming in from out of nowhere to try to pass it. Two months after first mixing it up with the KPop Demon Hunters cast on the chart with his surprise Swag release — both fell behind I’m the Problem at the time, though Swag got the edge for No. 2 — Justin Bieber is back with 23 new tracks’ worth of the stuff, with another new surprise release called (wait for it) Swag II.
While a 23-track brand-new Justin Bieber project would always be a release to take seriously on the Billboard 200, Swag II throws an extra wrench into the proceedings: On DSPs and at digital retailers, the 23 new songs merely comprise disc one of Swag II, with a second disc also containing the 21 songs originally released as Swag the First. So Swag II is essentially less a totally new album than a super-mega-deluxe reissue of its predecessor, akin to how SZA’s Lana release at the very end of 2024 was actually an expanded redo of her SOS.
A combined 44-track Bieber release seems like it could be a Morgan Wallen-sized blockbuster on the Billboard 200 — especially since Swag now comes with a standard CD release and two CD boxed sets, each with a branded T-shirt and a copy of the standard album, all without the 23 new songs.
However, while “Daisies” and “Yukon” from the original Swag are still performing quite well across streaming, the newly released songs have not had much streaming impact thusfar: None of the new cuts even cracked the top 40 on Spotify’s Daily Top Songs USA listing, and as of Tuesday, only “Love Song” still even appeared in the top 200, in the bottom half. (They’ve fared slightly better on Apple Music, where “Speed Demon” is still lingering around the top 50 on the real-time listing.) Even with 44 tracks in total, it’ll be tough for Swag to outperform KPop Demon Hunters if the songs from the latter continue to be among the most-streamed in the country, and only a couple Swag tracks even come close to comparing.
Sabrina Carpenter, Man’s Best Friend (Island/Republic): Count out Sabrina Carpenter this week at your own peril. Man’s Best Friend had one of the year’s best debut tallies with its 366,000 units moved — though 224,000 of that was in sales, which is likely to recede dramatically in week two. Still, the set’s streaming performance has remained strong, with new songs like “My Man on Willpower,” “When Did You Get Hot,” “Nobody’s Son” and particularly new single “Tears” (which she also performed at Sunday’s VMAs) all continuing to fare very well on Spotify and Apple Music. Short n’ Sweet ended up being a four-week No. 1 on the Billboard 200 in 2024, so even if Man’s Best Friend can’t hold on top for a second frame, expect it to be a regular contender in the weeks to come.
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