Final Actor Awards Predictions: ‘One Battle After Another’ Poised to Break the All-Time SAG Nomination Record With 7

The Screen Actors Guild Awards may have a new name, but their importance in the Oscar race is as vital as ever. Now called the Actor Awards, nominations will be announced Jan. 7. With more than 122,000 SAG-AFTRA performers eligible to vote — the largest voting body of any major awards show — the results often reflect populist tastes and broad mainstream appeal.

This year’s eligibility window covers performances released between Jan. 1 and Dec. 31, 2025, setting up what appears to be a competitive field across all categories.

Since the ensemble category was introduced in 1995, only four films — “Braveheart” (1995), “The Shape of Water” (2017), “Green Book” (2018) and “Nomadland” (2020) — have gone on to win best picture at the Academy Awards without earning a SAG ensemble nomination. Since the Academy expanded the best picture field in 2009, 61 of the 80 films nominated for SAG ensemble — a 76% success rate — have also received best picture nominations,…