One of my favorite things that happens on Royals Review is Suff76’s Path to 90 wins. Now that we’re at the quarter-point of the season, I wanted to check in on that. If the Royals were following that path, they’d have been 19-19 entering this series, and would want to be 21-20 exiting it. Instead, they entered it 17-21 and are now 18-21. If they at least split tonight’s game and tomorrow’s, they’ll be 19-22, only two games off the pace they’d need for 90 wins, assuming they can follow the path the rest of the way. Especially considering the 8-game losing streak, they’ve made up a TON of ground already.
One of the things I preach but don’t always practice is trying to view the season in homestand/away trip chunks rather than on a game-by-game basis. Going game by game, that Cleveland series was disappointing, but looked at from a series perspective, it was solid. Going series by series, the Oakland series was disappointing, while the Mariners series was terrific; from a road trip standpoint, a 4-2 trip was fantastic.
If we look at it from a homestand perspective, after the Royals take at least two out of three from the Tigers, that would be a good homestand. Win more games on a homestand/road trip than you lose, and you’re always making up ground, even if you lose individual games or even individual series.
What that means is the Royals have a chance to guarantee themselves a good homestand and give themselves a chance at a terrific homestand tomorrow with a win tonight. But that also means if they do win tonight and lose tomorrow, that’s not a lost opportunity, that’s a successful homestand. Baseball is, famously, a marathon rather than a sprint. But we fans so often treat individual games as if they will make or break a season.
The Royals, on paper, should have an excellent opportunity in front of them tonight. Michael Wacha will take the mound for KC, and five of his seven starts to begin the year have been of the above-quality version. A quality start is, of course, six innings and three runs. All five starts were that good, but all of them saw him allow fewer than three runs, and multiple saw him go more than six innings. He did have a couple of rough starts against Baltimore and the Athletics, but he rebounded with seven innings of two-run ball against the Guardians earlier this week in one of the Royals’ wins.
Wacha hasn’t faced the Tigers this year, but he faced them in every series the two teams played last year. He had two quality starts, one start where he allowed only 2 runs in 5.1 innings, and a final start that was a bit of a dud where he gave up 4 runs in 4.2 innings, but had some terrible sequencing luck as he only allowed 5 hits and 1 walk. Hopefully, he’ll pitch something more like the seven shutout innings he gave KC on May 31 last year, when the Royals won 1-0.
The Tigers had originally planned to throw Tarik Skubal in this one. Unfortunately for them, he had a loose body removed from his elbow earlier this week so he’s unavailable. As Rex might say, the Royals won’t be sending any sympathy cards. Instead, the Tigers will use old friend Burch Smith as an opener and likely follow him with bulk reliever Ty Madden.
Smith has had a rough time since pitching for KC, he bounced around the majors for a couple of years before spending 2022 in the NPB and then even took a stab at the KBO in 2023. He returned to the states in 2024 and pitched a few subpar innings for the Orioles and Marlins. Last year, he pitched exclusively for Pittsburgh’s AAA affiliate before signing a minor league deal with Detroit over the offseason. They recalled him on April 22, and he’s been pretty good with a 1.59 ERA in 11.1 innings. He can be hard to hit, but when he does get hit, he gets hit hard.
Ty Madden is a rookie who pitched a handful of big league innings for the Tigers in 2024, though he remained in the minors all of last year. He came into the season ranked 27th among the Tigers’ prospects by FanGraphs. He was pretty mediocre in 2024, but his bulk relief appearance against the Red Sox earlier this week saw him pitch five shutout innings with seven Ks and no walks. He had trouble finding the zone in that start, though; the Red Sox just kept chasing. If the Royals can be more patient, they ought to find more success.
The Tigers have put their dangerous lefties back in the lineup. Things won’t be easy for Wacha. On the other hand, Quatraro has actually removed Isaac Collins in favor of Lane Thomas. I’m not sure why, but hopefully it will pay off.
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