Going into the 2025 season there was a large chorus of people saying that the pitching could not be as healthy as it was in 2024. That is been very, very true. Cole Ragans didn’t even make it to 50 innings, though he might sneak one or two starts in at the very end. Kris Bubic made the All-Star team, but then was shut down for the year. Kyle Wright and Alec Marsh, who were supposed to be depth for the rotation, have not made it to the majors at all. Both Seth Lugo and Michael Lorenzen have spent time on the IL too. It has not been an easy year for the rotation. And now, with only 25 games left, it seems like there may not be enough left in the gas tank to get to the finish line.
It is not just the injuries that are a problem at this point, or at least not the specific injured list stints. Currently, the rotation theoretically consists of Lugo, Lorenzen, veteran Michael Wacha, rookie Noah Cameron, and newly-acquired yan Bergert. I would be surprised if those five were the only starters we see for the Royals in September. Seth Lugo is the biggest concern of the five. Toward the end of July, his command seemed to abandon him and has not really come back to anything resembling normal. His first three starts of August were all short, and he walked more batters than he struck out. Then on the 19th, he looked a little more like his old self, going six innings and giving up just wo runs before having the last two starts flame out very early. He has only made it through the fifth inning once in the month and posted a 9.11 ERA. He is clearly not right, and starting him every fifth game seems like pure folly.
If Lugo were the only concern, then maybe they could paper over it, but Noah Cameron has also seemed to run into a bit of a wall. Cameron has had an exceptional rookie season, and no matter what happens in this final month, it will go down as one of the best for a Royals starter in their first time at the pro level. However, he is now up to just over 140 innings across AAA and MLB games this season. It is not a large jump from last season’s 128.2, but with a month remainin,g it will be if he makes five more starts. Teams are hitting him a lot harder the last five starts, to the tune of .217/.333/.421 and 5.27/5.50 FIP and xFIP. Fatigue might be setting in.
Finally, Michael Lorenzen has not really gotten deep into a game since returning from injury and his last two games have been a little rough, giving up a lot of hits. I am less concerned about him than the other two overall, but I also expect less of him as a fifth starter. That leaves just Wacha and Bergert as still looking pretty solid and Bergert has not been allowed to go very deep into games.
All of this is putting a lot of pressure on a bullpen that is fine, but not spectacular. It is going to crack under the strain if starters are not even getting to the sixth inning pretty much every night. Over the last 30 days, they have thrown 101.1 innings vs. 374.1 over the first four months. I am afraid they will have to throw even more in the coming month. There are at least a few factors that might help with all of these issues.
The roster expansion has added an extra arm – Luinder Avila is back on the roster. He can carry some of the load, and if starters need a rest, a bullpen game with Avila and Lynch each taking multiple innings might be enough to buy a start or two. Stephen Kolek’s first start also gives some hope of having another starter who could step in and take a couple of starts. No one should expect him to throw six innings of one-run ball each time, but he is at least capable of that based on the start he had over the weekend.
All of this is set to a backdrop of a team that desperately needs to win some ball games to catch back up to the Mariners. That playoff spot is slipping away, and playing .500 ball is not good enough. If the starters average less than five innings per game in September, you can pretty much forget about the playoffs. The offense has been better, but not enough better to carry that kind of load as the bullpen becomes more taxed and the runs pile up on the other side of the ledger.
Of the group of Lugo, Cameron, and Kolek, one or two of them have to be good each time through the rotation. Of the Wacha, Bergert, and Lorenzen group, they need to be roughly what they have been this season to give some stability. Without that, I think this team is going to fall off in the last month.
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