Jac Caglianone Is Finally Coming Into Form – Royals

The Royals returned to Kauffman Stadium on Tuesday to begin a three-game series against the Texas Rangers, and Jac Caglianone was back in the lineup after nursing a sore shoulder for the last two games. 

Safe to say, he didn’t look at all injured against the Rangers in the first game of their six-game homestand.

Against Texas starter Nathan Eovaldi and the Rangers bullpen, Cags went 3-for-3 with two home runs and a walk. Below is a look at his batted-ball chart from Tuesday’s 5-3 win over the Rangers, courtesy of TJ Stats.

He got lucky on the single, as Texas second baseman Ezequiel Duran was playing back and couldn’t quite make the play. However, his other two batted balls, both home runs, were absolutely smoked, generating average exit velocities of 107.9 MPH and 105 MPH, respectively. 

As the Royals’ social media team pointed out, Caglianone generated 852 feet of batted-ball distance on his home runs in just two innings.

After Tuesday’s game, Cags is slashing .261/.338/.442 with a .780 OPS in 222 plate appearances. The former Florida Gator has eight home runs, 23 runs scored, 18 RBI, 3 stolen bases, and a 104 TJ Bat+. Suddenly, Cags has become one of the Royals’ most productive hitters in the Royals lineup. According to TJ Stats,  his .358 xwOBA is the second-best mark among Royals hitters with 50 or more plate appearances, and his .321 wOBA ranks second as well.

Has Jac finally arrived as an established hitter after so much hope and prospect hype since being drafted in 2024? Or is this just a hot streak for Cags that will fade soon enough? Furthermore, what does the former first-round pick need to do to continue to grow his profile as a possible star in Kansas City?

Let’s break down those questions regarding the talented Royals slugger.

Caglianone Has Been On Fire in June

In April, Cags slashed .256/.341/.410 with a .751 OPS in 78 at-bats. He also hit two home runs and scored 11 runs in that first full month of play. Thus, it looked like Cags was on his way to having a productive season in 2026 after a strong start.

Unfortunately, he took a big step back in May.

In 90 at-bats, the 23-year-old slashed .222/.271/.367 with a .638 OPS. He hit one more home run in May (3) than in April (2), stole a base, but overall things regressed for Cags in his second full month. Thus, there was some concern that he might be only a semi-regular player or that he needed more seasoning, especially as pitchers adjusted to him. (I talked about three things that Cags needed to work on to solidify his spot in the Royals lineup on May 21st.)

Well, it seems like Cags has made those adjustments and then some in June.

In 21 at-bats this month, he’s slashing .476/.593/.952 with a 1.545 OPS. Cags also has three home runs, five runs scored, seven RBI, and two stolen bases. However, the most impressive development he may have had this month is walking five times and only striking out five times. For context, he had only six walks to 27 strikeouts in May and eight walks to 29 strikeouts in April. That’s a 0.22 BB/K ratio in May and a 0.28 BB/K ratio in April compared to a 1.00 BB/K ratio in June.

Lastly, when it comes to Statcast percentiles this month, he’s been in the upper percentiles in nearly every category, especially when it comes to hard-hit rate, barrels, exit velocity, and launch-angle sweet-spot%, just to name a few.

Cags ranks in the 100th percentile in three categories this month (wOBA, hard-hit rate, and LA sweet-spot rate) and is above the 96th percentile in six others (BB%, Swing%, Z-Swing%, 90th EV, average EV, and xwOBA). Those are characteristics of an elite power hitter, even with the lackluster rankings in O-Swing% (13th percentile) and Z-Contact% (20th percentile). 

The Numbers Overall Are Still Solid

While it’s easy to focus solely on Cags’ performance in June, it’s important to look at the bigger sample when it comes to his performance so far in 2026.

Thankfully, one can say that the Royals outfielder is doing well overall, even with the boost of this hot June at the plate.

In addition to a 104 TJ Bat+, he is also performing very well in many important batted-ball categories. Much like his Statcast percentiles in June, Cags is thriving in categories such as bat speed, exit velocity, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate. That can be seen in his TJ Statcast summary below.

Overall, the top half of his Statcast summary looks quite similar to the top half of his June Statcast summary. The bottom half, unfortunately, looks vastly different.

While Cags has shown improvement in his BB% and K% this month, his BB% ranks in the 40th percentile, and his K% ranks in the 11th percentile this season. Furthermore, his whiff% and Z-Contact%, his lone issues in June, have been poor the whole season. They rank in the 11th and 19th percentiles, respectively. Cags was criticized for an overeager, free-swinging approach at Florida, and it seems that hasn’t improved much at the Major League level.

That said, it’s not as if he hasn’t made any changes since his disastrous rookie campaign in 2025. Two important adjustments Cags has made this year are his improvements in launch angle and pulling the ball in the air. Below is his TJ Statcast summary from a season ago. Notice what his percentiles looked like in those two categories. 

Last season, Cags’ 30.4% LA Sweet-Spot% ranked in the 5th percentile, and his 12% PullAir% ranked in the 30th percentile. This season? His LA Sweet-Spot% is 38.2%, ranking in the 65th percentile, and his PullAir% is 16%, ranking in the 60th percentile. Furthermore, his spray chart shows many more balls pulled this year, especially on home runs.

It’s not like Cags is a hitter without flaws. He strikes out a lot, chases too much, and isn’t consistent when it comes to making contact on balls in the zone. That will likely prevent him from being a .300+ average hitter in his career. 

However, he’s showing a decent eye with a penchant for being aggressive on balls that he can launch for home runs. That has been particularly evident in June, not just with his two home runs on Thursday against the Rangers, but also against the Reds last week.

Even if this is what Caglianone is long-term, that’s a profile the Royals can be satisfied with. He’s finally showing that 25-30+ HR power, which is much needed with this Royals lineup, especially with the sharp regression of Salvador Perez and his offensive production this season (62 TJ Bat+). 

What Are Some Other Concerns?

Offensively, Cags is trending in the right direction, which is a positive development for a franchise that’s currently 28-39 and doing whatever they can to escape the AL Central basement. 

That said, the outfielder has some other areas that he needs to work on, with outfield defense being the primary one.

Now, Cags has demonstrated one of the best outfield arms in the game in his short career. His +1 arm value ranks in the 83rd percentile, and his 97.6 MPH arm strength ranks in the 100th percentile. That’s elite arm strength, which is nice to have in right field regularly. 

Unfortunately, Cags’ range in the outfield has declined significantly after a strong start to the season.

According to Savant, he has a -3 OAA in right field and -4 OAA overall (he is -1 at 1B). His success rate is 86%, two percentage points below his estimated success rate of 88%. 

When looking at his OAA box plot data, Cags has done better on plays going to his right and behind. However, he’s performed much worse on plays to his left and when he has to come in.

The big light-blue box shows that he struggles on plays where he has to decide whether to play it conservatively off the bounce or aggressively by diving. He struggled on such a play on Tuesday, as he misplayed a ball in front of him hit by Joc Pederson, and the slow third baseman ended up getting a triple (anyone else may have gotten an inside-the-park HR). 

Cags has the athleticism to be at least an average defensive right fielder, especially with his arm strength. However, his defensive form and instincts need polishing. Today’s misplay against Pederson’s batted ball didn’t hurt Daniel Lynch IV or the Royals too much. That said, it could be different in the future, especially with Cags’ sloppy form on many flyball outs he gets to. Tonight was an example of that poor form coming to bite him and the Royals in the butt.

Granted, it’s not like he has to be a Gold Glove out there in right field. If he stays a below-average right fielder defensively, Royals fans can live with that as long as he is hitting the ball hard and mashing home runs. 

On the flip side, Cags has the potential to be a special player. He’s running more on the basepaths than he did a year ago, and he’s shown the ability to make sensational defensive plays in right field over the past two years. He’s not Hunter Renfroe or Edward Olivares out there by any means. 

Thus, let’s hope that Cags can continue to work on his form and instincts in the outfield, with the goal of becoming an average defensive outfielder by 2027. That will only improve his chances of becoming an All-Star next year and beyond.