Kansas City Royals at New York Mets prediction, pick for Wednesday 7/8/26

Most of the time, discourse surrounding MLB concerns teams. However, with next week’s All-Star break fast approaching, there are a few elite players on struggling teams who will get the chance to take the spotlight. Juan Soto and Bobby Witt Jr. certainly qualify as those.

Soto’s New York Mets will host Witt’s Kansas City Royals tonight in the second game of a three-game set, with first pitch scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET at Citi Field. Kansas City won a thriller last night, 16-12, including a seven-run seventh inning.

The Mets will turn to Christian Scott for some redemption, while the Royals will use Steven Cruz as an opener ahead of Randy Dobnak.

Let’s break down this clash with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Royals at Mets Best Bets

New York Mets -0.5 (+103): New York isn’t a very good team, ranking among the league’s worst on both sides of the ball, but Christian Scott is a decent pitcher and Kansas City long reliever Randy Dobnak is not. For that matter, neither is any Royals reliever.
Juan Soto 2+ Total Bases (+101): Much like Bobby Witt Jr. in Kansas City, Soto’s tremendous season has been overshadowed by his team’s struggles, but he leads the National League in on-base percentage, slugging percentage, and OPS, and he’s had two or more total bases in four of his last five games.

Kansas City Royals at New York Mets prediction, preview

Kansas City finished last season over .500 and has made the playoffs as recently as 2024, but this season has been a disaster from the start. The Royals were last over .500 on April 1, had a stretch of 11 losses in 13 games, and they have the second-worst run differential and record in the American League. To be fair, Kansas City’s offense hasn’t been at fault; it has been a solid unit this season, ranking 15th in OPS, and Witt has contributed with an .824 OPS and an American League-leading 30 stolen bases. He’s also been helped by a solid sophomore season from Jac Caglianone, who will participate in the Home Run Derby during All-Star weekend. However, the Royals’ pitching staff has fallen apart; after finishing seventh by both rotation and bullpen ERA in 2025, the bullpen has been baseball’s second-worst this season and the rotation its seventh-worst. Only two pitchers with at least 20 innings pitched (starter Michael Wacha and reliever Daniel Lynch IV) have an ERA better than 3.50.

New York has had a similar story in 2026, though its expectations were surely higher, given its exorbitant payroll and aggressive offseason moves. The Mets lost 12 games in a row early in the season, eventually grew short on patience and fired Carlos Mendoza with the team at 34-47, and they’ve continued losing since replacing him with Andy Green. New York ranks third-to-last in OPS despite Soto’s leading the National League in that stat because all of its other offseason moves were disastrous; free agency signing Bo Bichette has just a .686 OPS and trade acquisition Marcus Semien was worth negative WAR before being put on the IL. To make matters even worse, the Mets’ starters have been baseball’s fourth-worst, and their 12th-ranked bullpen hasn’t been good enough to save them. Scott, Huascar Brazobán, and Luke Weaver aside, basically every New York pitcher has been an unmitigated disaster.

Cruz has made one prior appearance as an opener, pitching 1.1 innings of scoreless work against the Chicago White Sox on June 26 in a game that Kansas City ultimately lost, 22-1. Cruz’s stats don’t look good this season because he had two blow-up outings in April, but since returning from Triple-A Omaha at the start of May, he’s been solid, pitching to a 3.09 ERA. He should be able to pitch a scoreless inning or two before turning it over to Dobnak, who allowed two runs in four innings of work in his first appearance of the season and has had a 4.35 ERA across two minor league stops this season. But whether as a reliever or a starter, there’s little reason for the Royals to have faith in Dobnak; in his most recent complete MLB season (2021), he posted a 7.64 ERA and ranked in the bottom two percentiles in six different Statcast categories, and his average spin rates and velocities, by and large, haven’t increased significantly since then. To make matters worse, Dobnak has been worse on the road this season in the minors, and the Mets’ offense has been slightly less atrocious at home.

Scott should have a significant edge in the pitching matchup. He’s been pretty solid this season, pitching to a 3.49 ERA in his 11 starts and giving up three or fewer earned runs in all but one of them. While his advanced numbers are a mixed bag, he has his strengths; he strikes out batters at an 84th-percentile rate, which should present Kansas City with more problems than usual, given its contact skills. Additionally, Scott has been good at preventing hard hits, allowing him to mitigate the Royals’ power (they rank second in hard-hit rate). While Scott has issued a few too many free passes, he’s allowed two or fewer in all but two of his starts since his five-walk season debut, and Kansas City walks at a below-average rate as is. It wouldn’t be a massive surprise to see him give up a homer, since he has really struggled to induce ground balls and the Royals have been baseball’s second-best team at getting the ball in the air, but he should be able to put together a reasonably effective outing otherwise. The splits are mixed; Scott has been somewhat worse on the road this season, but Kansas City has baseball’s seventh-worst road offense.

Kansas City Royals at New York Mets pick, best bet

Best Bet: New York Mets -1.5 (+103)

Perhaps this is putting more faith in Scott and in New York’s offense than either deserves, but his weaknesses align pretty well with with the Royals’ weaknesses and his strengths with theirs, and Dobnak hasn’t been a very effective pitcher at any level.

Strong Lean: Juan Soto 2+ Total Bases (+101)

Soto has been spectacular, and the start of July has been no exception; he has at least two total bases in four of his last five games, including a homer in three of them. Overall, he leads the National League in slugging percentage and ranks fifth in total bases.