Leonardo DiCaprio will lead Paul Thomas Anderson’s film to career-best box office

Paul Thomas Anderson is no stranger to Oscar buzz, but he’s never had a box-office breakout quite like the one expected this weekend. His latest epic, One Battle After Another, starring Leonardo DiCaprio, is projected to top the Sept. 26–28 frame with a domestic debut between $20 million and $25 million, plus another $25 million overseas for a potential $50 million worldwide launch. Even a softer start in the high teens would still mark Anderson’s biggest opening, easily surpassing 2007’s There Will Be Blood, which ultimately grossed $40.2 million domestically and $76.4 million worldwide.

At a reported $140–$150 million budget, One Battle After Another is the most ambitious project of Anderson’s career. Warner Bros. has positioned it as an event film — shot in 70mm VistaVision and marketed aggressively with trailers across NFL broadcasts, CinemaCon, and tentpole releases like Superman. The studio is fresh off an unprecedented winning streak (A Minecraft Movie, Sinners, Final Destination: Bloodlines, F1: The Movie, Superman, Weapons, and The Conjuring: Last Rites) and is now aiming to cap off the year with a serious Best Picture contender.

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Positive reviews — it’s sitting at 98 percent on Rotten Tomatoes — should only help the film’s momentum. Loosely inspired by Thomas Pynchon’s Vineland, the story follows DiCaprio’s Bob Ferguson, a former revolutionary living off the grid with his daughter (newcomer Chase Infiniti) until an old enemy (Sean Penn) resurfaces. But the film’s overtly political tone, including a provocative opening sequence at an ICE holding facility, may stir controversy in red states.

Rounding out the top five, Universal’s family-friendly Gabby’s Dollhouse is expected to draw up to $17 million, while Lionsgate’s horror sequel The Strangers: Chapter 2 should scare up $7-9 million. Anime holdover Demon Slayer: Infinity Castle is projected to land in the $7 million range, with Warner Bros.’ The Conjuring: Last Rites close behind at $6 million.

New releases:

One Battle After Another
Director: Paul Thomas Anderson
Distributor: Warner Bros.
When their evil enemy resurfaces after 16 years, a group of ex-revolutionaries reunite to rescue one of their own’s daughter. The action thriller has a running time of two hours, 41 minutes, and is rated R. One Battle After Another is certified “fresh” with a 98 percent score per the aggregated critic reviews at Rotten Tomatoes; “universal acclaim” reviews compiled by Metacritic resulted in an overall score of 96 percent.

Gabby’s Dollhouse: The Movie
Director: Ryan Crego
Distributor: Universal
Gabby and Grandma Gigi’s road trip takes an unexpected turn when Gabby’s prized dollhouse ends up with eccentric cat lady Vera. Gabby embarks on an adventure to reunite the Gabby Cats and retrieve her beloved dollhouse before it’s too late. The family adventure has a running time of one hour, 38 minutes, and is rated G. Gabby’s Dollhouse is certified “fresh” with an 80 percent score per the aggregated critic reviews at Rotten Tomatoes.

The Strangers: Chapter 2
Director: Renny Harlin
Distributor: Lionsgate
On the final day of their cross country road trip, a couple’s vehicle breaks down, forcing them to take refuge in a remote Airbnb. As night falls, three masked strangers terrorize them until dawn. The horror sequel has a running time of one hour, 36 minutes, and is rated R. The Strangers: Chapter 2 is certified “rotten” with a 14 percent score per the aggregated critic reviews at Rotten Tomatoes; “generally unfavorable” reviews compiled by Metacritic resulted in an overall score of 33 percent.

Here are Gold Derby’s predicted box-office rankings for the top five over the Sept. 26-28 weekend:

1. One Battle After Another
2. Gabby’s Dollhouse: The Movie
3. The Strangers: Chapter 2
4. Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba Infinity Castle
5. The Conjuring: Last Rites

Do you agree or disagree with those rankings? Make your predictions right now — it’s fun and easy!

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