It’s a battle royal between vampires and far-left revolutionaries
You’d think this would have been set in stone decades ago.
But no: The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences made headlines last year, by announcing a new rule that requires members to watch all nominated films in a given category, in order to be allowed to vote for one of them.
The resulting brouhaha revealed that plenty of members hadn’t been doing so!
(Which, in hindsight, could explain some of the head-scratching surprises during previous years.)
Unfortunately, the new system still allows cheating. Academy members have the option of viewing films at home, via a special streaming service. But, as several film critics subsequently pointed out, members get “viewed” credit the moment they start watching a film. The system doesn’t know if they quit after 15 minutes (and I’m sure plenty of people are tempted, given the absurd length of many Best Picture nominees).
That eyebrow-lifting detail aside, the big news this year is the neck-and-neck competition between “Sinners” and “One Battle After Another,” both of which are nominated in 10 categories. Both would walk home with a boatload of little statues, if nominated in separate years … but duking it out, against each other?
In numerous cases, it’s very difficult to choose one over the other.
What’s a humble prognosticator to do?
Stall, while hiding behind trivia … and this year’s selections produced plenty of fun facts:
* “Sinners” broke the all-time record for most Oscar nominations for a single film, with 16. The previous record, at 14, is shared by “All About Eve” (1950), “Titanic” (1997) and “La La Land” (2016).
* “Sinners” also gets credit for being the first time a vampire flick sank its teeth into the Best Picture category.
* This is the first time two nominated performances in a single category — Best Actor, in this case — went to somebody playing dual roles. Michael B. Jordan plays twins in “Sinners,” while Wagner Moura plays a father and his son, in “The Secret Agent.”
* With his recognition for “Marty Supreme,” Timothée Chalamet has become the youngest actor since Marlon Brando, and the second-youngest overall, to earn a third nomination for Best Actor.
* Autum Durald Arkapaw is the first Black woman to earn a nomination for Best Cinematography.
* With her Supporting Actress nod for “Weapons,” Amy Madigan has become the actress with the longest gap between nominations: 40 years, after being cited for 1985’s “Twice in a Lifetime.” Judd Hirsch holds the record for actors: 42 years, between “Ordinary People” and “The Fablemans.”
* Steven Spielberg further extended his record of nominations in the Best Picture category (as producer), with “Hamnet” being his 14th. His closest rivals are Scott Rudin and DeDe Gardner, with nine each.
* Ruth E. Carter, nominated this year for Best Costume Design for the fifth time, has become the most nominated Black woman in Oscar history, breaking her previous tie with Viola Davis.
* “Golden,” the hit song from “KPop Demon Hunters,” is the first K-pop song to earn an Oscar nomination.
* With her 17th nomination — and ninth in a row! — Diane Warren now has become the most-nominated (living) individual without having won any. She previously was tied, at 16, with oft-nominated Best Sound artist Greg P. Russell.
But enough delay, I hear you cry; let’s get on with it. OK, fine: Let’s see how badly I screw things up this year…
Visual effects
It’s nice to begin with a no-brainer. Even though James Cameron seems to be making the same film over and over again, one cannot deny the stunning world-building. Expect to see Paul Joe Letteri, Richard Baneham, Eric Saindon and Daniel Barrett rewarded for their amazing work, in “Avatar: Fire and Ash.”
Sound
The Motion Picture Sound Editors’ Golden Reel Awards aren’t always much help, since they divide the spoils within numerous sub-categories. The top feature film winners at their 73rd annual ceremony, held last Sunday, were “Sinners” and “Frankenstein.”
But that’s immaterial, because this category is just as much of a lock as the previous one. I’m expecting to see Gareth John, Al Nelson, Gwendolyn Yates Whittle, Gary A. Rizzo and Juan Peralta share statues, for “F1.” (John won last year, for “Dune: Part Two.”)
Production Design
The 30th annual Art Directors Guild Awards, presented Feb. 28, were divided into three branches, for fantasy, period and contemporary; the winners were, respectively, “The Fantastic Four: First Steps,” “Frankenstein” and “One Battle After Another.” The latter two also are up for this category’s Oscar, but “One Battle After Another” hasn’t a prayer. Nobody can argue against the magnificent look of Guillermo del Toro’s horror thriller. That means Tamara Deverell and Shane Vieau will take the stage, for “Frankenstein.”
Makeup and Hairstyling
This category was an eyebrow-lift, when the nominations were announced, because I’d never even heard of three contenders.
The 13th annual Make-Up Artists and Hair Stylists Guild Awards, which took place Feb. 14, gave its top awards to “Sinners” (period and/or character makeup) and “One Battle After Another” (contemporary makeup), with a secondary award to “Frankenstein” (special makeup prosthetics). That’s ridiculous; “Frankenstein” should have taken the first category, full-stop.
Bearing that in mind, it’s a shoo-in for this Oscar, so I’ll go with Mike Hill, Jordan Samuel and Cliona Furey, for “Frankenstein.”
Costume Design
The 28th annual Costume Designers Guild Awards, presented Feb. 12, also are divided into the same three branches: period, fantasy and contemporary. The winners were, respectively, “Frankenstein,” “Wicked: For Good” and “One Battle After Another.” Only the first one’s also nominated in this category, and Malgosia Turzanska could be a surprise winner, for “Hamnet.” But, at the risk of repeating myself, the winner once again seems obvious.
Kate Hawley, for “Frankenstein.”
Original song
Goodness, we seem to be on a “these are too easy” roll … which, going by Academy Award history, is a dangerous feeling
But what can I say? This film was more than popular; it was a phenomenon … and I’ve no doubt this will be the first of its two Academy Awards.
I’ll go therefore with “Golden,” music and lyrics by EJAE, Mark Sonnenblick, Joong Gyu Kwak, Yu Han Lee, Hee Dong Nam, Jeong Hoon Seo and Teddy Park, in “KPop Demon Hunters.” (And I can’t wait to see all of them crowd around the podium.)
Original score
Equally easy. Its eerie score did a lot for this film’s creepy atmosphere. Ludwig Goransson, for “Sinners.”
Animated feature
After seeing “Zootopia 2,” I assumed it would be a lock in this category.
Then its competitor blew away such chances.
Maggie Kang, Chris Appelhans and Michelle L.M. Wong will share trophies, for “KPop Demon Hunters.”
International feature film
For its relevance to the current turmoil in American and world affairs, “The Secret Agent” definitely is the best choice, since its depictions of the atrocities committed during Brazil’s two-decade military dictatorship feel unpleasantly familiar.
But director Joachim Trier is very popular, and his film has the added bonus of also being nominated in eight other categories. Since it’s guaranteed to lose most (all?) of the others, I’ll go with Norway’s “Sentimental Value.”
Casting
A brand-new, long overdue category, which honors the individuals who populate a film with the perfect company of actors and actresses.
This debut year — as is the case in several other categories — it feels like a dead heat between “Sinners” and “One Battle After Another.” To borrow an opinion expressed by a friend, however, too many of the characters in the latter were “whackadoodle” burlesques, which raises questions about casting.
I’ll therefore go with Francine Maisler, for “Sinners.”
Editing
Also tough, and the first serious contest between the two top Oscar contenders.
The American Cinema Editors’ 76th annual Eddie Awards, presented on Feb. 27, divide their awards between drama and comedy/musical. The winners, respectively, were “Sinners” and “One Battle After Another.”
Its many excellent qualities notwithstanding, “Sinners” isn’t really an editor’s film.
I’ll therefore go with Andy Jurgensen, for “One Battle After Another.”
Cinematography
The 40th annual American Society of Cinematographers Awards banquet, also held last Sunday, gave their award to Michael Bauman, for “One Battle After Another.”
Many oddsmakers favor “Sinners,” which is no surprise; this one’s truly a toss-up. Alternatively, if those two split the votes, “Train Dreams” could be a dark horse winner; its oblique final act notwithstanding, there’s no denying the beauty of Adolpho Veloso’s camerawork.
Fingers crossed: Autumn Durald Arkapaw, for “Sinners.”
Adapted screenplay
The 78th annual Writers Guild of America Awards, also held last Sunday, gave this award to Paul Thomas Anderson … and, when it comes to the Academy Awards, writers are known for voting in a like-minded block.
Definitely Paul Thomas Anderson, for “One Battle After Another.”
Original screenplay
Equally obvious, as far as the Writers Guild — and I — are concerned. Ryan Coogler, for “Sinners.”
Supporting actor
The 32nd annual Actor Awards (formerly the Screen Actors Guild Awards), held on March 1, gave this category to Sean Penn. Once again, I can’t argue. Sean Penn, in “One Battle After Another.”
Supporting actress
Another category poised to surprise. Teyana Taylor easily could sneak in, for “One Battle After Another.” The same is true of Wunmi Mosaku, in “Sinners.”
But perhaps voting again will split between those two, leading to a win for the woman who took the trophy at the aforementioned Actor Awards: Amy Madigan, in “Weapons.”
Actor
Oddsmakers are deadlocked on this one: a close contest between Timothée Chalamet and Michael B. Jordan.
The Actor Awards trophy went to the latter, and I see the logic. Chalamet’s performance in “Marty Supreme” is all over the map, showing very little of the dramatic heft he has delivered in earlier films. Jordan, on the other hand, excels in two roles.
He’s my choice, as well: Michael B. Jordan, in “Sinners.”
Actress
This one is an obvious lock: Jessie Buckley, for “Hamnet.”
Director
Shoot me now, or take me home and shoot me later.
The 78th annual Directors Guild of American Awards, which took place back on Feb. 7, gave its top award to Paul Thomas Anderson, for “One Battle After Another.”
Momentum seems to be in his favor … but we can’t ignore the possibility of a second trophy for Coogler, for “Sinners.”
Argh … Paul Thomas Anderson, for “One Battle After Another.”
Picture
The Producers Guild of America Awards, also held Feb. 28, also gave its top prize to “One Battle After Another.”
For the same reason “The Secret Agent” might take the International prize — which is to say, relevance to shameful current events in our own country — Anderson’s film is the logical choice.
So, I’ll make it: “One Battle After Another.”
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