Overreacting to the Royals’ end of season press conference

One of my favorite things about the Royals since General Manager J.J. Picollo took over from his mentor, Dayton Moore, has been how he handles the end-of-season press conferences. In direct contrast to the man he replaced, Picollo has generally been more honest with fans about where the team is, where it needs to go, and how it might get there. This year, he played it a bit more coy, but if you pay close enough attention, he still gave several promising tidbits to tide us over until the postseason ends and the Hot Stove can light up.

Hitting coaching changes are coming

The headline for almost everyone, everywhere, immediately during and following the press conference was that Alec Zumwalt was going to continue to be the head guy over the major league hitting coaching staff in 2026. People are, to put it mildly, pretty upset about that. But let me show you a few numbers.

Some of you will have figured this out already, but Player A is Adam Frazier with the Pirates this year, and Player B is Adam Frazier after the Royals traded for him. Players C and D are Mike Yastrzemski with the same split but regarding the Giants.

We all knew heading into the season that Cavan Biggio, MJ Melendez, Hunter Renfroe, Drew Waters, John Rave, Kyle Isbel, and Nick Loftin weren’t good hitters. How much should we really blame the hitting coach that they continued to be who they have all been since long before Zumwalt came near them? Meanwhile, Maikel and Vinnie Pasquantino both had career seasons at the plate. Bobby Witt Jr. had another fantastic year and credits the coaching staff for helping him identify and repair a mechanical flaw that plagued him in June.

I’m not arguing that everything is A-OK with the hitting coaching staff and nothing needs to change. But, crucially, Picollo isn’t either.

Picollo indicated there may be other changes to the coaching staff, including changes in Zumwalt’s support staff on the hitting side. The Royals finished with the fifth-fewest runs in baseball.

That’s from Max Rieper’s breakdown of the press conference, and I think he buried the lede a bit there. They’re keeping Zumwalt, but they’re adding or swapping some guys out below/around him. That could be sufficient. I’ve argued repeatedly on the Royals Rundown podcast that I wasn’t convinced the Royals’ hitting philosophies were the problem. Even when I argued back in June that the Royals had run out of other options, I was careful to be clear that I thought the current coaches had positive attributes and should be kept around somehow. I wrote in August – and still believe – that the Royals’ problems, once they jettisoned the dead weight, came from players becoming tilted. Here’s what I said then:

The Royals were in a tailspin, and they got tilted. (Being tilted is a term that comes from Poker and means a player gets so frustrated that they become overly aggressive.) The hitting coaches didn’t cause that […] they just weren’t able to get through to the players.

I think it’s especially easy to recognize this in Jac Caglianone, who came up and hit the tar out of the ball, but saw outfielders make excellent plays. Quickly, his swing decisions and body language degraded until his process was as abject a disaster as his results. I don’t mind if the Royals don’t replace any of their hitting coaches, as long as they find someone who can help players avoid prolonged periods of tilt that wreck a season the way they did in June.

Hitting philosophy changes are being evaluated

Beyond the implied promise that the Royals won’t enter 2026 with the exact same hitting coaching staff, Picollo also expounded upon the idea that the Royals may need to adjust their hitting philosophies. I don’t want to get too into the weeds on this because other people are already doing a better job with that. For example, I recommend you check out this post by David Lesky at Inside the Crown ($).

What I will say is that I appreciate the acknowledgement that the Royals might not already have all of the answers and that it makes sense to keep looking for more. It feels a contrast to what we’ve seen in previous Royals eras and even with other clubs today. This is your semi-regular reminder that Moneyball wasn’t about OBP; it was about looking for ways to improve beyond the accepted standards. In that sense, the Royals are still exhibiting the approach of a Moneyball team, and I have to appreciate it.

The Royals aren’t promising to improve the roster, but that doesn’t mean they won’t

Check out this clip from Star Trek III: The Search for Spock:

Scotty is exhibiting a classic business technique, “Underpromise and over-deliver.” And J.J. Picollo is very familiar with the concept. Take a look at these quotes from our summary of his press conference following the 2023 season:

“Next year’s starting rotation will include Brady Singer, Cole Ragans, and Jordan Lyles, according to Picollo.”

“Whatever the rules of engagement are, it’s our job to get the most out of it. Whether its $100 million, $120 million, or $80 million, its our job to get the most out of it. Teams have won with lesser payrolls. So that can’t be what I wake up thinking about every day.”

Jordan Lyles was not in the starting rotation in 2024. He was barely in the bullpen. Additionally, the Royals spent much closer to $120 million than $80 million that season. OK, so that’s one press conference. What about last year?

The Royals have yet to set a payroll number for next year, but Picollo expected owner John Sherman to take a flexible approach toward spending as he did last year.

The Royals blew 2024’s roster spending out of the water this year. FanGraphs’ Roster Resource has them at nearly $140 million.

Now, what did he say this year?

Ownership has not given a firm payroll number, but Picollo said they would operate in the same vicinity of this year’s payroll, around $140 million.

Here’s one more thing that really gets me excited based on that quote. The Royals made a serious effort to spend well over that $140 million number this year. At one point, they had an offer out to Anthony Santander that would have guaranteed him an annual average value (AAV) of more than $20 million. When they missed out on him, they signed Carlos Estévez at about $11.5 million AAV instead. The Royals were clearly willing to spend at least $10 million more this year than they ended up handing out.

Picollo has a history of underpromising and overdelivering when it comes to payroll. There’s every reason to believe that pattern will hold true this offseason as well. I don’t know if the Royals will be in on the biggest free agents, but they’ve been doling out large contracts at a much higher rate since Picollo took over the team. Witt has the largest contract in franchise history; Salvador Perez has the second-largest. Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha signed contracts in the top five of AAV all-time.

If the Royals add a coach who can help “untilt” hitters and add a significant bat to their lineup, they should easily be in line to have a third straight winning season in 2026. Hopefully, one that will also include their second playoff berth in three years.