Predictable Royals trade deadline mistake has backfired in record time

Seth Lugo’s name was a fixture in trade rumors leading up to the July 31 deadline. The Kansas City Royals, however, decided against trading the 35-year-old on an expiring contract. Instead, the Royals handed him a two-year, $46 million extension, which ties Lugo to the organization through 2027.

This move was met with mixed reactions. Most Royals fans were happy to keep a fan favorite who has delivered results with impeccable consistency over the last five years. He was the No. 2 finisher in AL Cy Young voting a year ago, lest we forget. But others were a bit worried about the advanced stats, which said Lugo’s sub-3.00 ERA leading up to the deadline was nothing but a lucky mirage.

Well, as fate would have it … yeah, re-signing Lugo was probably a mistake. He has allowed 19 earned runs over his last five starts leading up to Wednesday’s game, which he began by coughing up a first-inning grand slam to Nationals slugger Nathaniel Lowe.

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Royals already living to regret Seth Lugo extension

Nobody could have predicted how sharply Lugo’s production would decline after the deadline, but it was, to a certain extent, inevitable. Lugo’s expected ERA, per Baseball Savant, was well over 4.00 before the deadline. Now he’s up to a 5.05 xERA. That puts him in the 14th percentile for all MLB pitchers.

FanSided’s Chris Landers eloquently laid out the breadth of the concerns with Lugo’s stat profile before the deadline.

“Lugo’s BABIP right now sits at .244, which would be his career low as a starter by more than 30 points,” Landers wrote. “His strand rate — the percentage of runners on base that he doesn’t allow to score — is a whopping 86.3%, way above the league average of 70-75. Put simply: Lugo’s numbers should look much worse than they do based on how he’s been pitching, and he’s survived mostly because of some very fortunate timing that isn’t likely to continue moving forward. (Neither BABIP nor strand rate are sticky stats, meaning they tend to regress to the mean over time.)”

Flash forward to August and the bad numbers are spiking up while the luck numbers are spiking down. Lugo was due for the crashing-to-earth moment, but it feels a bit extreme.

Now, is Lugo just the worst pitcher in MLB now after years of steadfast positive impact? Of course not. He will eventually level out somewhere in the middle between Cy Young candidate and punching bag. But the Royals extended Lugo at a price point that his production will not back up.

Can Seth Lugo return to All-Star form for Royals?

Lugo was utterly sensational in 2024 and he looked great (at least on the surface) for much of 2025. Can he return to that level? Conventional wisdom says no, that he’s a 35-year-old reaching the tail end of his career. Not many pitchers can extend successfully into their late 30s or early 40s like Chris Sale or Justin Verlander.

That said, Lugo is an unconventional pitcher who does not necessarily subscribe to conventional wisdom. The man throws at least eight pitches — and he claims “a few more” than that. Lugo has never been a huge strikeout guy. He’s attempting a delicate tightrope act each and every at bat, peppering all areas of the strike zone with different speeds, different breaks.

Lugo has never relied on velocity, and thus he should in theory be able to pitch deeper into his career without losing his special sauce. If this recent stretch is any indication, however, the Royals ought be be a little bit worried about Lugo’s long-term outlook. They had a chance to sell higher on him than his baseline skill level reflected, but instead chose to double down.