To start June, the Royals won two series on the road against Cincinnati and Minnesota then lost the next three series against Houston, Texas, and Washington. They got back on track in their last series agaisnt the Cardinals winning two of three games at Kauffman. With eight games left in June, the Royals will look to finish strong with a four game road set against the Tampa Bay Rays. Here are the probable starters and some trends and stats to keep an eye on.
Probable Starters
Game One: Michael Wacha (4-5, 3.64 ERA) vs. Drew Rasmussen (6-3, 2.59 ERA)
Game Two: Luinder Avila (2-3, 5.50 ERA) vs. Shane McClanahan (6-4, 3.33 ERA)
Game Three: Noah Cameron (4-4, 4.20 ERA) vs. Griffin Jax (2-5, 3.67 ERA)
Game Four: Seth Lugo (3-4, 3.69 ERA) vs. Ian Seymour (3-1, 4.99 ERA)
Royals Offense One of the Best in June
For once this season, the Royals aren’t just Bobby Witt Jr and a ragtag group of hitters, they are now a scary offensive unit. In June, the Royals have been one of the best offenses in the whole league, currently third best, with many different bats playing well. As a team, they have a combined wRC+ of 123, good for a tie in fifth place, are tied for third in fWAR accrued at 4.7, and have 110 runs in June, good for fourth.
If we switch to a focus on the players, Jac Caglianone is having a month where he could get AL player of the Month honors with his 1.4 fWAR along with a slash line of .379/.468/.742 for an OPS of 1.210. That is also good for a 228 wRC+, which is the third best in the league and best in the AL in June. He is taking that next step for the Royals when they need him most this month. He is also doing this playing both right field and first base with Vinnie Pasquantino down with an injury.
Bobby Witt Jr. was his usual self before he got hurt, having a slash line of .323/.429/.431 for an OPS of .859. The power was starting to get back into his bat as well before the injury as he was slugging .526 over the last two weeks. He accrued 1.2 fWAR in June, continuing to show off his stellar defensive prowess.
Other key bats with at least 100+ wRC+ and at least ten plate appearances include, Michael Massey, Lane Thomas, Carter Jensen, Nick Loftin, Vinnie Pasquantino, Starling Marte, Kameron Misner, and John Rave. The offense is rolling with a majority of the team contributing despite the injuries plaguing them.
Pitching, however, is One of the Worst in June
Nothing ever seems to be fully in form for the Royals this season. The pitching is good for most of the season, the bats are cold, and now that is swapped with the bats hot as can be and the pitching going cold. In terms of fWAR, the Royals have accumulated -0.1 fWAR which is second to last in June behind the Nationals. They have struck out the second least batters with a 6.80 K/9, in front of Arizona’s 6.63, are 26th in FIP with a 5.02, and are tied for second with five blown saves.
On an individual basis, the only starter that has performed well is Noah Cameron, who leads the pitching staff in fWAR with 0.5 in June. In this month, he is 2-0 with a 3.22 ERA while also getting a fair number of strikeouts with a 8.81 K/9. That cannot be said about the rest of the rotation, however, as they have struggled in various ways.
Both Michael Wacha and Seth Lugo have not had their best stuff in June and they are struggling to miss bats. Wacha has a K/9 of 3.38 and Lugo has a K/9 of 3.77 in June and that has led to unfavorable results. Lugo has been allowing 1.88 HR/9 in this stretch, while Wacha is getting BABIP’d to death allowing a .324 BABIP.
Stephen Kolek would have had a great June if not for his start in the series finale against the Cardinals where he allowed nine runs in 1.2 innings pitched. Before that he had 19.1 innings of work allowing four runs (three earned) while striking out 15 batters. Luinder Avila is having a similar month to Kolek with three really solid starts and a massive blow up against the Astros. Taking that game out, he had 15.2 innings pitched allowing three earned runs.
Then we get to the bullpen, where there hasn’t been much success. Alex Lange has been the best reliever for the Royals, saving five games so far with a 2.00 ERA. Only issue he has had in June is his 6.00 BB/9. Steven Cruz has put together a solid June with a 3.38 ERA, with his only bad outing being in the series finale against the Cardinals where he allowed three earned runs in 1.2 innings pitched.
John Schreiber continues to be a reliable arm after a poor start to the year with a 2.08 ERA in June, while Beck Way has shown glimpses of his potential in his first major league playing time with a 3.86 ERA in 9.1 innings of work. That rounds out the positives in the arm barn.
Daniel Lynch IV struggled in June with his effectiveness as he put up a 4.15 ERA so far. He just hasn’t been able to strike anyone out with a 3.12 K/9. Lucas Erceg has had a 2.45 ERA, but the underlying numbers are very worrying (specifically a 6.52 FIP). Mason Black has been pretty much as advertised as a long reliever, a 4.50 ERA with a FIP at 7.31. Then the least valuable pitcher in baseball takes center stage.
Matt Strahm is putting together a nightmare month with a 12.27 ERA. He has been worth -0.7 fWAR in June and the wheels have fallen off for him. He has a K/9 of 1.23, a HR/9 of 6.14, and has a FIP of 12.92. In the month of June, Strahm has had two scoreless appearances in nine appearances and has a whopping one K.
Rays Starters Dominate Royals Historically
This shouldn’t surprise anyone as it seems the Rays pitching machine always seems to dominate the Royals. In this series, however, they face Drew Rasmussen, Shane McClanahan, and Griffin Jax who all have ERA’s below 3.08 against the Royals. They have never faced Ian Seymour, if he even is the starter in game four. Rasmussen has the best numbers against the Royals with a 2.38 ERA and is 4-1 against them. The only Royal batters to get some success against him are Bobby Witt Jr (3-for-11) and Maikel Garcia (2-for-4).
McClanahan hasn’t pitched much against the Royals in the 2020s, only three games, but he has been good against them. He has a 2.30 ERA against them, but he has not faced many current Royals batters. Only BWJ, “Salvy,” Lane Thomas, and Maikel Garcia have seen him to varying levels of success. BWJ is 1-for-4 against him with a home run and a walk, Thomas is 0-for-1 with two walks against him, and Garcia is a perfect 2-for-2 against McClanahan. Salvy is 1-for-7 against him with four K’s.
After being a solid reliever for most of his career, Griffin Jax has returned to starting pitching with the Rays. The Royals mainly saw Jax as a reliver when he was with the Twins, and they got dominated more often than not. The only time the Royals saw him well was in his 2021 season where he was a starter still, and he had a 5.63 ERA against the Royals. Since that season, however, he has had an ERA of 1.13 since 2021. The current Royals don’t see him well either as BWJ, Salvy, and Garcia have an OPS below ,700 against him. The only Royal to have some success against him is Thomas, who is 1-for-2 against him.
The Royals have treaded water recently and will look towards their high powered offense, at least in June, to finish the month strong.
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