The Kansas City Royals are coming off a series split against the Detroit Tigers, which continues the trend of solid play for the team since the All-Star break. That series also saw Salvador Perez take the home run crown away from George Brett, and he has a chance to continue building his throne atop the mountaintop of Royals power hitting against the Twins. It will be a three-game set, so here are the probable starters and some stats and trends to keep an eye on.
Probable Starters
Game One: Seth Lugo (4-6, 4.36 ERA) vs. Taj Bradley (9-4, 3.69 ERA)
Game Two: Randy Dobnak (0-0, 1.42 ERA) vs. Joe Ryan (6-6, 3.39 ERA)
Game Three: Noah Cameron (5-8, 4.93 ERA) vs. Bailey Ober (7-3, 4.56 ERA)
Salvador Perez Can Continue Building Franchise Home Run Lead
It is very well known that “Salvy” hits Twins pitching historically and with the burden of the franchise home run record gone, he could start going on a tear. While he hasn’t hit the Twins well since 2023, his OPS has been below .665 from 2024-2026, he has a trend to keep building on against them. In his 15-year career, he has hit at least one home run against the Twins in 13 straight years. His only seasons without a round tripper against them were in his rookie season in 2011 and this year.
In this series, he also gets to face two starters whom he has hit home runs off of in Bailey Ober and Joe Ryan. He also has a home run off Taylor Rogers in the bullpen and good splits against a handful of the Twins’ bullpen arms. Another trend Salvy is hoping to continue is his good start to the second half of the year. He is slashing .200/.349/.571 for an OPS of .920 and a wRC+ of 147 since the break.
If there was a series to continue building the franchise home run lead, this would be one of the better series for Salvy to do it. Next up, a revenge start and surprising production.
Randy Dobnak has been a Pleasant Surprise, Looks to Continue Strong Pitching against Former Team
In a year where the rotation has had at least one starter on the IL, the Royals have had their fair share of oddball starters this season. One of those starters has been former Minnesota Twin Randy Dobnak. In 19.0 innings of work in Royal blue, Dobnak has surprised many with his play. He currently holds a 1.42 ERA both as a starter and as a bulk reliever.
While the ERA is eye-popping, the peripheral numbers are concerning; he has a FIP of 4.85 and an xERA of 5.06. That is because he is living up to his title as a groundball specialist, as he is not striking anyone out (12.5% K-rate) and walking as many batters as he strikes out (11.3% walk rate). This will be his first start against the Twins after spending the first five seasons of his career with them.
Noah Cameron’s Dominance against the Twins
Cameron is coming off an appearance that saw him be the bulk reliever against the Tigers, and he put together arguably his best appearance. He went seven innings, allowing no runs, two hits, striking out eight, while walking three batters in a 2-1 loss. It has been the definition of a rollercoaster year for Cameron, but if he is to stabilize the Twins are the team to do it against.
In four starts against the Twins, Cameron has compiled a 0.77 ERA and a 3-0 record. He has 24 K’s to four BBs, and the only Twins batters who have a good track record against him are Ryan Jeffers and Austin Martin. Those two are a combined 7-for-16 with two doubles and one walk.
Maybe the Home Run Derby Effected Jac Caglianone
While the Royals as a team have been playing good baseball, a core part of the lineup has struggled since his Home Run Derby appearance. Jac Caglianone has been mired in a slump to start the second half of the year, as he is slashing .143/.143/.321 for an OPS of .464 and wRC+ of 14 since the break.
To make matters worse, he is 0 for his last 16 plate appearances and has yet to draw a walk. It looked like he was bound for a second-half surge, as in the Padres series he went 4-for-12 with a double and a home run, but since that point he has slumped. Similar to Salvy, “Cags” has looked good against the Twins and could break out of his slump. He has an OPS of .907 in his limited plate appearances against the Twins.
The Royals have been putting together a good start to the second half and these are some of the key stats and trends to keep an eye on if they want to continue that good play.
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