The Detroit Tigers have opened up a 11.5-game lead in the AL Central by winning five games in a row, and they’ll aim to close out their series with the Kansas City Royals with a win on Sunday afternoon.
Kansas City is in second in the division, but its best chance to make the playoffs is by way of the wild card. The Royals are three games out of the third and final wild card spot in the American League, as they sit at 66-64 in the 2025 season.
They’ll turn to righty Seth Lugo on Sunday with a chance to steal this series finale and pick up a game on Detroit.
The Tigers will counter with Jack Flaherty (4.51 ERA), who has struggled in the 2025 season.
Here’s a breakdown of the odds, players to watch in the prop market and my prediction for Sunday’s matchup.
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
Run Line
Moneyline
Total
Royals Best MLB Prop Bet
Looking for a home run prop bet for this game? In today’s Daily Dinger – SI Betting’s best home run picks – I shared why Pasquantino is a great target against Detroit:
Kansas City Royals first baseman Vinnie Pasquantino has been one of the hotter hitters in baseball as of late, posting a .321 batting average with five home runs over his last seven games. Not only that, but the Royals slugger has eight homers (and a .300 batting average) over the last two weeks (13 games).
So, I’m betting on him staying red hot in a solid matchup against Detroit Tigers righty Jack Flaherty.
This has been a rough season for Flaherty, who has a 4.51 ERA and has given up 20 homers in 25 appearances.
Pasquantino has crushed right-handed pitching this season, hitting .278 with 22 of his 27 homers. He’s worth a look at +400 on Sunday afternoon.
This may seem crazy with the Tigers playing some of their best baseball of the season right now, but I love the Royals to pull off the upset on Sunday.
Detroit has not fared well in Flaherty’s starts this season, going 8-17 overall, and the righty has a pair of outings this month where he allowed at least five runs.
Meanwhile, Kansas City is 13-11 when Lugo is on the mound and while he’s also had two bad outings this month, the Royals have won six of his nine outings since July 1.
The Tigers have done the exact opposite, going 3-6 in Flaherty’s starts over the last two months. While I am worried about the weaker KC offense putting up enough runs in this game, I can’t look past the Tigers’ record with Flaherty pitching.
Let’s bet on an underdog to get a win on Sunday.
Pick: Royals Moneyline (+122 at DraftKings)
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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