Sunday’s matchup between the Kansas City Royals and the Seattle Mariners strikes me as a matchup between 2 starting pitchers heading in opposite directions. Bryan Woo is the scheduled starter for Seattle as he is set to make his 11th start of the season. Woo struggled in his final start of April against the Cardinals and his first start of May against these same Royals. In those starts he allowed 6 home runs and 13 total runs. His season-long ERA jumped from 2.25 to 4.61 due to that stretch. Since then Woo has bounced back with 18 innings of 2-run ball in his last 3 starts. He has shut down the Braves, Astros, and White Sox, and what’s most encouraging during that span is his 25 strikeouts. I believe the worst of his season is behind him and I look for Woo to perform better against Kansas City this time around.
Seth Lugo is set to make his 11th start of the year, entering Sunday with a 3.68 ERA across 58.2 innings of work. Lugo is someone I seemingly bet against every start, and the results have been mixed so far. His ERA to this point outperforms his 4.94 xERA and his poor batted ball metrics. Lugo also earns a low strikeout rate and fails to keep the ball on the ground. He does not have a profile I enjoy backing, and his performance has slipped with 20 earned runs across his last 5 outings. At current pricing I side with the Mariners on Sunday.
Seattle Mariners vs Kansas City Royals prediction: Mariners ML (-135) available at time of publishing. Playable to -140 odds.
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