Surprises, snubs, and what it all means for awards season

The 35th edition of the Gotham Awards has planted its flag in the upcoming Oscars season. Traditionally the first award show of the season, the Gotham nominations include 40 feature films and 25 performances across 10 categories. This year’s clear frontrunner, One Battle After Another, led the pack with six nominations, a strong start for the Paul Thomas Anderson film in the awards race.

MIA… but don’t call it a snub

Still, as is often the case with the Gothams, the nominations paint only part of the picture. There are several notable absences from the list, among them Josh Safdie’s Marty Supreme, starring Timothée Chalamet, and Bradley Cooper’s Is This Thing On?, featuring Will Arnett and Laura Dern. Both films premiered to strong acclaim during the final week of the New York Film Festival, but sources close to the productions tell Gold Derby that neither was ready in time for the Gotham nominating deadline, making them ineligible for consideration.

More from Gold Derby

While the Gothams don’t always forecast Oscar success directly, they do serve as a key platform for indie and international titles seeking momentum. A nomination here can boost a film’s visibility and strengthen its campaign narrative. And although some of the season’s biggest Oscar hopefuls — like Marty Supreme or Is This Thing On? — sat this one out, their absence leaves space for smaller, more idiosyncratic films to step into the spotlight. History shows that early Gotham love can translate into lasting awards-season presence — Past Lives, Moonlight, and Everything Everywhere All at Once all saw their momentum begin here.

Predicting a breakout

This year’s Best Feature lineup includes Bugonia, East of Wall, Familiar Touch, Hamnet, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, Lurker, One Battle After Another, Sorry, Baby, The Testament of Ann Lee, and Train Dreams. Notably missing are Sinners — currently second among predicted Best Picture Oscar nominees in Gold Derby odds behind One Battle After Another — and Sentimental Value, which sits in fourth place.

Best Picture

Contender

Odds

1.

One Battle After Another

97.5%

2.

Sinners

97.5%

3.

Hamnet

96.8%

4.

Sentimental Value

95.4%

5.

Marty Supreme

93.5%

Could Yorgos Lanthimos’s Bugonia use this moment to climb? The film, starring Emma Stone and Jesse Plemons, currently hovers around the 10th spot on the Gold Derby Oscar leaderboard and recently saw a slight 2 percent dip following its limited theatrical release. The Gotham nomination could provide exactly the awards-season boost it needs. Similarly, The Testament of Ann Lee and Train Dreams — ranked 16th and 17th in current predictions — could gain valuable traction from the exposure.

A stunning omission in the directors field

In Best Director, the Gothams leaned heavily international, honoring Jafar Panahi (It Was Just an Accident and Oliver Laxe (Sirāt); Mary Bronstein (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You), Kelly Reichardt (The Mastermind), and Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another) round out the list. One shocking omission was Hamnet‘s Chloé Zhao, who currently ranks second to Anderson in our predicted Oscar nominees for Best Director. (The film and star Jessie Buckley both earned Gotham nominations, however.)

The surprising acting slate

The Outstanding Lead Performance category, which combines male and female actors, delivered a few jaw-droppers as well. Absent were Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another), Michael B. Jordan, and Jeremy Allen White, all considered Best Actor Oscar frontrunners. Instead, the spotlight turned to Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon), Lee Byung-hun (No Other Choice), Josh O’Connor (The Mastermind), and Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent). Moura, currently sitting at No. 5 on Gold Derby’s predicted Best Actor nominees, could see a meaningful bump from the nomination — his stock already jumped 8 percent in recent days. Standing on the Gothams’ stage statue in hand could help solidify his standing in the awards race.

While Buckley’s nomination for Hamnet comes as no surprise; her portrayal of Shakespeare’s wife has held the top spot on Gold Derby’s Best Actress chart for weeks, a win at the Gothams could lift on-the-bubble Oscar contenders like Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You) or Amanda Seyfried (The Testament of Ann Lee), who are jockeying for a slot in the Best Actress field. The Testament of Ann Lee currently holds a 92 percent score on Rotten Tomatoes and continues to build word-of-mouth strength, momentum that the Gothams could amplify.

A family affair in supporting

Among Best Supporting Performances, One Battle After Another secured nods for Teyana Taylor and Benicio Del Toro, while Jacob Elordi scored for Frankenstein. And in a rare awards twist, the father-son duo Alexander and Stellan Skarsgård both earned nominations — for Pillion and Sentimental Value, respectively.

And while the Gotham Awards may not make or break an Oscar hopeful, for many on the long road to the Academy Awards, a win can deliver the kind of buzz that allows a quieter film to make some real noise.

Best of Gold Derby

Sign up for Gold Derby’s Newsletter. For the latest news, follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram.

Click here to read the full article.