Contains spoilers for “A House of Dynamite”
Kathryn Bigelow’s movies over the past two decades have mostly been reflections on war and politics. This includes “The Hurt Locker,” which earned her the best director Oscar, and “Zero Dark Thirty,” both of which are among the best female-directed films of all time. Her latest work definitely falls into that camp with its nuclear-tinged thriller vibes. If you missed Looper’s “A House of Dynamite” rundown, it sees American officials respond to a rogue nuke heading toward Chicago. They try to knock it out of the sky with a Ground-Based Interceptor, and things turn murky when people begin to discuss the chances of a GBI actually being successful.
In the film, it’s stated that the GBI only has a 61% chance of hitting the nuke and saving Chicago. This is driven home when Secretary of Defense Reid Baker (Jared Harris) exclaims, “It’s a f***ing coin toss? This is what $50 billion buys us?” Of course, 61% is slightly better than a coin toss. Regardless, this statistic clashes with the running theme of the movie’s second chapter, which is titled “A Bullet Hitting a Bullet.” This invokes the image of two moving bullets somehow colliding with one another, which has a nearly 0% chance of happening. So, which is it? Are the odds of the United States’ defense system knocking out a nuke 61% or 0%? 61% doesn’t exactly help you sleep at night, but it’s far preferable to the other option. The muddling of this plot point makes the stakes a little unclear.
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The 61% figure in A House of Dynamite seems to be accurate
Major Daniel Gonzalez kneeling on a road in A House of Dynamite – Eros Hoagland/Netflix
“A House of Dynamite” drives home the idea that, in the nuclear age, we’re all just one button-push away from total annihilation. It’s sobering to think that the odds presented in the movie (the 61% chance that is, not that 0% chance confusingly implied by the bullet analogy) are apparently pretty realistic. CBS News spoke with Lt. Gen. Dan Karbler about the missile defense system portrayed in “A House of Dynamite,” to which he said, “That kill vehicle will go and basically run itself into the incoming missile. That closing velocity can be in excess of 30,000 miles an hour. I think the movie has it pretty accurate when they talk about 61% chance of killing it.”
Other figures seem to back up the “coin toss” perspective that these missiles have about 50/50 odds of successfully destroying a nuke in transit. Of course, there are many factors that can influence the likelihood of success, such as how many missiles are airborne and how far away they’re coming from. Whatever the actual odds are, the overarching message of Kathryn Bigelow’s film remains clear. The ending of “A House of Dynamite” leaves some lingering questions, but one thing is certain: If a country ever attacks another with a nuclear device, the world changes forever for the worse. Even if there were a 100% guarantee of knocking a nuclear missile out of the sky, there’s still the question of what to do next…
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Read the original article on Looper.
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