What is the state of the Royals rotation in 2026?

Going into the trade deadline, adding depth in the starting rotation was the Royals’ number one priority after the injury bug struck three of the five opening day starting pitchers. Kansas City added Ryan Bergert and Stephen Kolek from the Padres and added Bailey Falter in a deal with the Pirates. Doing this gave the Royals three pitchers under 30 with control at least through 2028, giving their rotation plenty of depth in 2025 and beyond.

Entering 2025, the Royals appeared to have one of the best five-man rotations in baseball. Cole Ragans and Seth Lugo were Cy Young candidates in 2024, Michael Wacha and Michael Lorenzen signed new deals with the team, and Kris Bubic made his highly anticipated return to the starting rotation. But the injury bug struck this year, and Cole Ragans, Kris Bubic, and Michael Lorenzen all will be out for significant time in 2025.

Now, after these trades, the Royals have plenty of depth as they begin to make a push for the postseason. The question now becomes… What happens in 2026? The Royals now seem to have the opposite problem, with at least 8 guys who (when healthy) could hold a role in a starting rotation in 2026. Today, I will take a look at all of their potential options next season.

Cole Ragans entered 2025 as the Royals’ ACE, after a breakout year in 2024 where he established himself as one of the best strikeout pitchers in all of baseball. His power fastball, combined with an elite changeup, made life impossible for hitters. This, along with a great slider and curveball, made him impossible to catch up with.

The issue for Ragans has always been health, which is the primary reason the Royals were able to acquire him from the Rangers in 2023. Back in 2019, tests revealed that Ragans needed a second Tommy John procedure, a major setback that is seen as a major red flag for a young pitcher like him. The Royals took the risk when they dealt Aroldis Chapman to the Rangers in 2023.

Ragans stayed healthy in his first two seasons with the Royals, but 2025 has been a brutal year for him to stay on the field. After dealing with a groin issue at the beginning of the year, Ragans was put on the injured list after having some shoulder discomfort and being diagnosed with a rotator cuff strain. The Royals can’t be too careful when dealing with Ragans, and keeping him healthy is priority one. But if he is good to go, you can assume he will be the ACE again in 2026.

Seth Lugo was viewed as one of the top potential free agents going into the offseason, but the Royals did not let it get that far, signing him to an extension just before the trade deadline. Since joining the Royals, Lugo has become one of the best pitchers in baseball, throwing over 200 total innings in 2024 and finishing second in Cy Young voting.

Lugo has become well known for his insane pitch mix that features just about every pitch grip imaginable. His calling card pitch is his massive curveball, consistently getting 3000+ RPM and is one of the hardest pitches in baseball to square up. But it plays even better because he has at least 10 other offerings he can pair it with consistently.

Lugo has been a staple of consistency in Kansas City and has only missed a couple of starts in his entire tenure with the Royals. Barring any crazy occurrences, it is a safe bet to say that Lugo will be near the top of the Royals’ rotation for years to come.

Michael Wacha was teammates with Seth Lugo with the Padres, and joined him, leaving San Diego to come to Kansas City in the 2023 offseason. The two veteran pitchers deserve a ton of recognition for their role in helping turn around the Royals’ pitching staff so quickly. Wacha ended up signing an extension in the 2024 offseason in a deal that could tie him to Kansas City through 2028.

Wacha is known for his killer changeup that dives at the plate and (I think) is the single best pitch any pitcher has in the Royals organization. He has a firm fastball that won’t blow hitters away but pairs very well with his killer changeup. The addition of his slider since coming to Kansas City has been huge for his success as of late.

Wacha has remained healthy for the most part since joining the Royals, and the consistency of him and Seth Lugo in the middle of a rotation has provided stability over the last two seasons. The Royals hope that over the next 2-3 years, Wacha and Lugo can be consistent anchors in the rotation with their veteran presence and feel for the game. Similar to Lugo, barring anything crazy happening, you can expect to see Wacha in the rotation over the next few years.

Noah Cameron has had one of the best rookie seasons the Royals have seen from a pitcher in several years and will almost certainly be in the 2026 starting rotation.

Despite never really being a highly touted prospect in the Royals organization, Noah Cameron took several huge development steps over the last two years. In 2024, Cameron was looked at as the 15th-25th prospect in the Royals organization, with many people suggesting his ceiling was just as a fringe MLB starter. His Double-A struggles in 2023 limited the expectations for Cameron, but his dominant year in 2024 shot him through the organization.

Now Cameron is having a breakout year at just 26 years old. He is posting a 2.68 ERA over 15 starts and 87.1 innings. His stuff (movement/velocity) will not blow you away, but hitters simply cannot square him up. He has an over-the-top delivery with a low-90s fastball, and despite their lack of spin, his breaking pitches are up there with the best in baseball. It is a safe bet that Cameron will be in the 2026 starting rotation.

Kris Bubic made his big return to the rotation this year, after getting Tommy John surgery in 2023 and only pitching out of the bullpen in 2024. Bubic got off to a hot start and was one of the best pitchers in the MLB this season. He had an ERA of 1.43 in his first 12 starts (75.1 innings), and this season, we saw Bubic at his best.

His fastball was at 92 MPH, but despite the lack of velocity, it was one of the best pitches in all of baseball. Bubic gets great extension down the mound, and the fastball has elite carry through the zone with 2400 RPM on the pitch. His changeup was also a dominant pitch, and when he had a feel for his sweeper and slider, he was unhittable.

But the injury bug struck right before the deadline, when Bubic had the worst start of the year. He looked uncomfortable on the mound, and while he is known to expand the zone and try to force swing and miss, he was nowhere near the zone, and it was clear that something was wrong. It was later announced that his shoulder tightened up, and he was suffering from a rotator cuff strain, and the team will shut him down for the rest of the year.

While I have not heard any legitimate rumblings of a trade for Bubic, it is a possibility that the team moves on from him this offseason. The Royals need bats, especially in the outfield, and with both Randall Grichuk and Mike Yastrzemski hitting free agency, they may get desperate. The team would prefer to keep Bubic, but if they are blown away, it could force their hand. But if he is not traded and is healthy, Bubic has earned a spot in the rotation for 2026.

Michael Lorenzen is an interesting case for the Royals, with the most likely scenario being that he becomes a free agent this offseason. Lorenzen resigned with the Royals this offseason after his great season in 2024, when the team added him at the trade deadline from the Rangers. He signed a one-year, $7 million deal with the Royals, with a $12 million mutual option in 2026.

It feels safe to say that the Royals will let Lorenzen walk and will roll with the guys they currently have under control for 2026, but that is also what we said last offseason. After Brady Singer was traded and Alec Marsh went down with an injury, the team needed pitching depth, and so the team called up Lorenzen and offered him a new deal.

I think Lorenzen would opt into the deal, and if he hit the open market, his value would be closer to 10 million. If the Royals felt they had an open spot in the rotation, it may be worth it for the Royals to opt into the deal, but with the depth of pitching they have, I would consider that unlikely.

Ryan Bergert was the top player the Royals added at the trade deadline and will be the top name to watch this offseason. With the Padres, he bounced between AAA and the major league team, but a promising season this year has allowed him to kick the door down on a major league rotation. If his success this season continues, it will be tough to leave him off the opening day rotation in 2026.

Bergert has a great fastball that sits 93-94, but similar to Kris Bubic, relies on great spin and carry to be successful with it. His slider and sweeper are solid offerings, but play even better because of the carry on his fastball. Right now, he is more of a three-pitch guy, but if he can refine his changeup and can throw it consistently, he will be hard to square up.

Bergert is a rookie and will be under team control through 2029, and the Royals have high hopes for what he can provide down the line. He had a great first start with the Royals against the Red Sox on Tuesday and looked as advertised. The Royals will be able to option Bergert next season, but his incredible play this season has made him stand out, and he could force Matt Quatraro’s hand going into next year.

You can see my Ryan Bergert scouting report here

Alec Marsh is the wild card. He won the starting job in Kansas City over Daniel Lynch IV in 2024 and held on to it almost the whole year. His 4.53 ERA may not look great, but Marsh was a great fifth option for the Royals, who attacked the zone and gave some of his best starts when the Royals needed him most. Marsh has missed all of 2025 with a right shoulder injury, something that is concerning as he has had major injuries in the past. If healthy, he could compete for a fifth starter spot or could move back to the bullpen, where he started his career.

Stephen Kolek was the other pitcher the Royals acquired in their trade with the Padres for Freddy Fermin at the 2025 trade deadline. While the headline of the trade was Ryan Bergert, Stephen Kolek is in his second year of major league service and has found some real success in the past. Kolek attacks the zone horizontally with a great sinker slider mix.

Kolek spent all of 2024 with the Padres after they selected him in the Rule 5 draft out of the Dodgers organization. Kolek has been moved between the rotation and the bullpen several times, but is likely to stick as a starter for the Royals. Kolek could make an appearance in 2025, but will start in Omaha as a starting depth, which is the same role I think you can expect him to serve in 2026.

Bailey Falter was also added at the trade deadline in a deal with the Pirates. Falter is currently serving as the fifth starter in the Royals’ rotation and is a very unique pitcher who has worked with pitching coach Brian Sweeney in the past. Falter struggled in his first start, giving up five runs in the first inning. Falter was solid in Pittsburgh and could bounce back and prove to be a valuable starter down the stretch. Falter has the talent to be an MLB starter, but with the depth in the Royals organization, he may struggle to break into the rotation. If the Royals tender him a contract, they’ll likely have to pay him around $4-5 million. He seems unlikely to crack the rotation, but an injury and/or a trade could leave an opening for him.

You can see my scouting report on Bailey Falter here

My prediction for the 2026 rotation (If healthy)