What’s The Business Outcome? 01/12/2026

Financial “prediction”
platforms, such as Kalshi and Polymarket, are growing. Here is where people make money buying and selling “event” contracts.

What type of events? It could be specific business activities, sports,
politics, high-profile/social content. Kalshi is regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Polymarket is somewhat similar but it is based on blockchain technology using
cryptocurrency. It is not currently regulated.

Now comes one just focused on the entertainment business: Mogul. Billing on its site calls it “the first fantasy league for entertainment.”

Want to make a prediction about next summer’s big theatrical hit? How about the next high-profile bomb of a longtime movie franchise?

What about the next big TV show on Netflix? This
could be the place.

Mogul is positioned to appeal to all data-obsessed audiences.

Stacy Spikes is heading up the business. He was formerly a
co-founder/CEO for the failed theatrical movies subscription business MoviePass.

But some of its heritage remains: Mogul is part of the umbrellas MoviePass company. For its part, the MoviePass
business is still around but with a more low-key business plan. For example, a $33-a-month subscription gives consumers credits for around four theatrical films a month (depending on specific
showtimes.)

Going forward, Mogul will have some competition. Kalshi already does some of this entertainment prediction work.

Currently it has a contract for Best Picture for the Oscar
of the upcoming Academy Awards.

To a great extent, the prediction — essentially wagering/betting — started a year ago when companies like DraftKings and FanDuel ramped up a growing sports
wagering business.

What’s next? Not sure. Perhaps media-buying “predictions” niches will start up? Care to gamble on whether AT&T, GEICO, Ford Motor all hit all their “business
outcomes” for their next respective media campaigns?

Maybe there should be some savings on fees for those who also want to buy a MoviePass subscription: Go to the movies and wishfully drive up
your contract value! After all, subscription bundling is all the rage, yes?