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Tencent Music Entertainment Group has seen its fair value estimate reset from about US$26.92 to about US$17.98, a sizable shift that points to a more restrained view of potential upside at current levels. This change lines up with mixed analyst commentary, where a cluster of downgrades focused on competition and earnings visibility sits alongside at least one upgrade highlighting possible upside if current headwinds ease. Read on to see what is driving this evolving narrative and how you can track it from here.
86 Research upgraded Tencent Music to Buy from Hold with a US$17.40 price target, arguing that monetization is “secure” despite competitive threats and that the recent share selloff looks overdone.
Some research highlights K content as an upside optionality, suggesting that new content categories could offer additional support for engagement and revenue over time.
Macquarie cut its rating to Neutral from Outperform and set a US$14.10 price target, citing emerging competitive pressure from Soda Music that could weigh on ARPPU and user acquisition.
ADVERTISEMENTMultiple firms, including Morgan Stanley, UBS, JPMorgan, Daiwa, Barclays, Mizuho and Benchmark, have issued downgrades or lowered price targets, reflecting concerns around earnings visibility and the impact of more aggressive competition.
Do your thoughts align with the Bull or Bear Analysts? Perhaps you think there’s more to the story. Head to the Simply Wall St Community to discover more perspectives!
We’ve flagged 1 risk for Tencent Music Entertainment Group. See which could impact your investment.
Tencent Music Entertainment Group declared an ordinary annual cash dividend of US$0.12 per share or US$0.24 per ADS for the year ended December 31, 2025, with an expected aggregate payout of about US$368m.
Holders of record on April 2, 2026 are scheduled to receive the dividend on or around April 20, 2026 for ordinary shares and April 23, 2026 for ADSs, with an ex dividend date of April 1, 2026.
The company has scheduled a board meeting for March 16, 2026 to consider and vote on its unaudited results and announcement for the three months and full year ended December 31, 2025.
Fair value reduced from about US$26.92 to about US$17.98.
Revenue growth assumption adjusted from about 15.22% to about 9.83% for CN¥ revenue.
Net profit margin assumption revised from about 29.34% to about 28.26% for CN¥ earnings.
Future P/E multiple moved from about 27.16x to about 20.83x.
Discount rate adjusted slightly from about 9.95% to about 9.87%.
‘ The preceding article may include information circulated by third parties ’
‘ Some details of this article were extracted from the following source finance.yahoo.com ’
