Will ‘Black Rabbit’ be the latest limited series to snag double Best Actor bids at the Golden Globes?

Netflix’s buzzy crime drama Black Rabbit is filled with suspense, but the real nail-biter will be at the Golden Globes, where both Jude Law and Jason Bateman are vying for Best Actor in a Limited Series or TV Movie.

Law plays Jake Friedken, an NYC restaurateur whose life is upended by the arrival of his estranged brother, Vince (Bateman), whose return is accompanied by troubles from the past that could destroy the family business. The actors’ onscreen sibling rivalry dynamic could play out during awards season, as Bateman and Law will be contending against each other in the lead acting categories.

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First up is the Golden Globes, where the Gold Derby odds are predicting Bateman and Law to join recent Emmy winner Stephen Graham (Adolescence), Charlie Hunnam (Monster: The Ed Gein Story), and Brian Tyree Henry (Dope Thief) in the field, with Law recently edging past Paul Giamatti (Black Mirror) to enter the top five. While it might seem unlikely for two actors from the same series to get nominated in the same category, it happens more often than you’d think — especially for Best Limited/Movie Actor.

TV Limited/Movie Actor

Contender

Odds

1.

Stephen Graham

Adolescence

97.9%

2.

Charlie Hunnam

Monster: The Ed Gein Story

92.4%

3.

Brian Tyree Henry

Dope Thief

91.5%

4.

Jason Bateman

Black Rabbit

85.6%

5.

Jude Law

Black Rabbit

41.2%

6.

Paul Giamatti

Black Mirror

40.9%

7.

Michael Shannon

Death by Lightning

23.8%

8.

Matthew Rhys

The Beast in Me

10.3%

9.

Jacob Elordi

The Narrow Road to the Deep North

6.2%

10.

Jason Clarke

Murdaugh: Death in the Family

5.9%

In 2016, Riz Ahmed and John Turturro went head-to-head at the Golden Globes for The Night Of, splitting the vote in favor of The Night Manager‘s Tom Hiddleston. (Ahmed did at least win the Emmy.) In 2014, two pairs of costars — Fargo’s Martin Freeman and Billy Bob Thornton and True Detective‘s Woody Harrelson and Matthew McConaughey — took up four out of five slots in Best Limited/Movie Actor, with Thornton prevailing.

Back in 2013 — the last halcyon days of the TV movie — Steven Soderbergh directed Michael Douglas and Matt Damon to Best Actor nominations for Behind the Candelabra, with Douglas winning. A similar dynamic played out five years prior when Kevin Spacey and Tom Wilkinson found themselves competing against each other for 2008’s Recount; they both lost to John Adams star Giamatti. (Wilkinson won the supporting TV actor prize that same year for his performance in John Adams.)

Going further back, the 2000 limited series Nuremberg reaped bids for Alec Baldwin and Brian Cox, with the prize going to Brian Dennehy for Death of a Salesman. In 1986, James Woods beat out costar James Garner for his performance in the TV movie Promise. Anthony Andrews similarly bested Jeremy Irons for the 1982 television adaptation of Brideshead Revisited. In 1981, Peter O’Toole and Peter Strauss found themselves in competition for the limited series Masada, with both losing to Mickey Rooney in Bill.

So what does that mean for Law and Bateman, both of whom are extremely popular at the Golden Globes? Law has competed four times, three times for films (The Talented Mr. Ripley, A.I.: Artificial Intelligence, Cold Mountain), and once for TV (The Young Pope). Bateman, meanwhile, won the Best TV Comedy Actor prize for Arrested Development, contending once more for that series and three more times for Ozark.

So you might want to think twice about predicting that just one of these brothers will be going for the Globe.

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