Will ‘The Studio’ get ‘Hack’-ed? How the Best Comedy Series Emmy race breaks down

The Emmy nominations delivered a genuine shake-up, where familiar heavyweights Hacks and The Bear certainly held their ground — but all eyes are on a bold newcomer: The Studio.

The debut Apple TV+ satire scored a staggering 23 nominations, setting a record for a first-season comedy and instantly positioning itself as the frontrunner in this year’s most competitive race. The Studio stars Seth Rogen and Ike Barinholtz as executives navigating egos, dysfunction, and corporate chaos — and the sharp satire about the inner workings of the entertainment industry is a subject Hollywood and Emmy voters can’t resist. Witness the swath of above- and below-the-line nominations — and an unprecedented near-sweep of the Guest Actor category.

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Rogen, a nominee in four separate categories including for directing the standout single-take episode “The Oner,” could potentially walk away with four trophies on Emmy night. Based on the Gold Derby odds, voters are expected to reward Rogen’s range not just as a performer, but as a creative force behind the camera. The Studio’s biggest potential threat for the Best Comedy title is last year’s winner, Hacks.

Comedy Series

Contender

Odds

1.

The Studio

78.2%

2.

Hacks

12.6%

3.

The Bear

2.2%

4.

Only Murders in the Building

2.2%

5.

Abbott Elementary

1.6%

6.

Nobody Wants This

1.4%

7.

What We Do in the Shadows

1.2%

8.

Shrinking

0.6%

Now in its third season, the Emmy darling has amassed 48 total nominations and nine wins. Look for Hacks to triumph in the acting categories: Jean Smart, already a three-time Emmy winner for her portrayal of Deborah Vance, will undoubtedly add a fourth trophy to her collection; her castmates Hannah Einbinder and Julianne Nicholson (a rare double nominee this year for Hacks and Paradise) are also frontrunners in their respective supporting and guest actress races.

Comedy Actress

Contender

Odds

1.

Jean Smart

Hacks

91.6%

2.

Kristen Bell

Nobody Wants This

4.3%

3.

Ayo Edebiri

The Bear

1.6%

4.

Quinta Brunson

Abbott Elementary

1.2%

5.

Uzo Aduba

The Residence

1.2%

But signs of vulnerability for the HBO stalwart have emerged: Notable snubs for Paul W. Downs and Megan Stalter suggest a slight weakening of the show’s once-unshakable hold on voters. Still, there’s some history in Hacks’ favor when it comes to Best Comedy Series. In the past decade, the comedy with the most nominations has gone on to win the series prize only four times. In the Best Actor race, Rogen currently holds the lead in the Gold Derby odds but he’ll have to outshine industry favorite Martin Short, whose performance in Only Murders in the Building earned him the SAG Award earlier this year in a surprise. With his costar Steve Martin snubbed in a tight five-actor race, will that SAG support give Short the edge? As for reigning two-time champ Jeremy Allen White, The Bear star is virtually an afterthought this year. The show’s third season — for which he’s competing — was met with mixed reviews following a creative shift, and the currently airing fourth season did little to reverse the momentum. It doesn’t help that White is seemingly more focused on the upcoming Oscar-aspiring biopic Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere than the Emmy campaign trail.

Comedy Actor

Contender

Odds

1.

Seth Rogen

The Studio

83.5%

2.

Martin Short

Only Murders in the Building

7.9%

3.

Jeremy Allen White

The Bear

5.0%

4.

Adam Brody

Nobody Wants This

2.9%

5.

Jason Segel

Shrinking

0.6%

It’s a much closer call in the supporting actor race, where Barinholtz currently leads in the Gold Derby odds, but he’ll have to beat out Shrinking’s Harrison Ford, the Hollywood legend who has shockingly never won an Emmy or Oscar. The Studio and Barinholtz’s performance are riding an impressive wave of critical acclaim, but Ford may still have the edge. Not simply because of his legendary status, but because of the profound depth he brings to his role as Paul, a therapist living with Parkinson’s. Ford’s portrayal is layered with his trademark sardonic wit blended seamlessly with an emotional vulnerability that gives the character real heart. His spotlight speech in his submitted episode, “The Last Thanksgiving,” was one of the most compelling two minutes of television of the past season.

While Barinholtz and Ford are neck and neck in our odds, don’t sleep on The Bear’s Ebon Moss-Bachrach — who, like White, is undefeated in this category.

Comedy Supporting Actor

Contender

Odds

1.

Ike Barinholtz

The Studio

57.1%

2.

Harrison Ford

Shrinking

33.5%

3.

Ebon Moss-Bachrach

The Bear

3.2%

4.

Bowen Yang

Saturday Night Live

2.6%

5.

Colman Domingo

The Four Seasons

1.6%

6.

Jeff Hiller

Somebody Somewhere

1.4%

7.

Michael Urie

Shrinking

0.6%

The Supporting Actress race is just as fierce. Einbinder could finally clinch her first win thanks to a powerful arc in the fourth season of Hacks. Her performance was especially riveting in the episode “Mrs. Table,” where her character unravels, losing her composure, quitting her job, and storming off the lot in an emotionally charged scene. But she’s up against a tough lineup including Kathryn Hahn and Catherine O’Hara (The Studio), Janelle James and Sheryl Lee Ralph (Abbott Elementary), Jessica Williams (Shrinking), and Liza Colón-Zayas (The Bear).

Comedy Supporting Actress

Contender

Odds

1.

Hannah Einbinder

Hacks

74.1%

2.

Catherine O’Hara

The Studio

13.8%

3.

Liza Colon-Zayas

The Bear

4.4%

4.

Kathryn Hahn

The Studio

3.4%

5.

Janelle James

Abbott Elementary

2.8%

6.

Jessica Williams

Shrinking

1.0%

7.

Sheryl Lee Ralph

Abbott Elementary

0.4%

Guest categories offer further proof of The Studio’s dominance. In a historic sweep, five of the six nominees for Guest Actor hail from the show: Bryan Cranston, Dave Franco, Ron Howard, Anthony Mackie, and Martin Scorsese — leaving The Bear’s Jon Bernthal as the lone outsider. Cranston is hugely favored to take home the statue — while he’s the only Studio star not playing a version of himself, he steals every scene he’s in with his over-the-top antics. Bernthal, though, might have the best chance to pull off an upset, and repeat with the win thanks to a surprisingly heart-rending scene in “Napkins,” showing off a softer side to his emotionally troubled character.

Comedy Guest Actor

Contender

Odds

1.

Bryan Cranston

The Studio

78.3%

2.

Martin Scorsese

The Studio

9.4%

3.

Jon Bernthal

The Bear

6.3%

4.

Anthony Mackie

The Studio

2.8%

5.

Ron Howard

The Studio

2.4%

6.

Dave Franco

The Studio

0.8%

As for Guest Actress, this one is expected to go to Julianne “Dance Mom” Nicholson (also nominated for Best Drama Supporting Actress for Paradise), proving her comedic and dancing chops, over a stacked lineup that includes would-be spoilers in The Bear’s Olivia Colman and Jamie Lee Curtis as well as Zoë Kravitz, riding high (literally) on The Studio.

Comedy Guest Actress

Contender

Odds

1.

Julianne Nicholson

Hacks

78.4%

2.

Jamie Lee Curtis

The Bear

10.2%

3.

Cynthia Erivo

Poker Face

7.6%

4.

Zoe Kravitz

The Studio

3.0%

5.

Robby Hoffman

Hacks

0.4%

6.

Olivia Colman

The Bear

0.4%

This story originally appeared in Gold Derby’s special 2025 Emmy issue.

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