OKLAHOMA CITY—Coming to you live this morning (as I write this, that is) from The 405, Oklahoma City, home of the reigning NBA champion Thunder.
I’m here with my wife, who’s here for a continuing education course in her field of study. I spent most of the day yesterday by myself, but at night, she and I walked 12 minutes to Paycom Center to watch the hobbled Thunder face the maimed Golden State Warriors.
It turned into quite the game!
There’s a reason for that. Even though both squads are banged up—no Steph Curry for GSW, no Chet Holmgren for OKC—both are in the thick of the playoff race. For the Thunder, they’re shooting for the No. 1 seed in the West, but are only up a few games on the surging San Antonio Spurs.
Things are much more dire for the Warriors, though. Without Curry and Jimmy Butler (out for the year), they’re just trying to reach the Play-In Tournament for a shot at facing either the Thunder or Spurs in the first round. Last night’s loss drops them to 32-31, only a game up on the Clippers for the No. 8 seed, with the Blazers not that far behind.
The Warriors don’t want to have to win two play-in games to make the playoffs, which means they need to finish No. 7 or No. 8.
And so, both teams came to play.
This is in stark contrast to many other NBA games this time of the season. While the Play-In tournament expanded the playoffs, theoretically, from eight teams per conference to 10 teams per conference, tanking—losing for a higher draft pick—runs rampant. This is also despite the changing of odds for landing that first pick. It’s an issue that’s plagued the league for years but has only increased this season due to a strong upcoming draft class.
Now, NBA commissioner Adam Silver has vowed to make even more changes to combat tanking. Fans await with bated breath.
But they could just look at how Major League Baseball works its draft.
Really, baseball has done such a good job with its recent draft changes that tanking makes little to no sense. This is a rare dubya for Rob Manfred (though one does wonder if this was his doing or someone else’s).
I often look for ways that MLB could borrow from other leagues (i.e., the NFL, NHL, and NBA) to improve its draft, but in this regard, the NBA might take a page out of MLB’s book.
For example, one particular issue promoting tanking in the NBA is trading draft picks with protections on them. (This also occurs in the NHL.) For example, Team A trades to Team B a draft pick that is top-four protected, meaning that Team B gets that pick only if it falls anywhere from picks #5-32. If Team A then starts to have a bad year a shot at the playoffs—or title—look grim, or there’s an especially deep draft class on the horizon, Team A might pivot to tanking to try to land within the top four spots and keep its draft pick.
One idea floating around is eliminating such draft pick protections, at least in the range of something like picks No. 5 through No. 14, which are the last picks of the draft lottery. Another option would be to eliminate draft pick protections entirely, though I don’t think that will happen.
MLB, of course, does not have this problem, because except for specific instances, draft picks cannot be traded. I used to hate this rule as I think that a GM or team President or Baseball Czar (did that title fade with La Russa?) should have handy every tool in the box, including trading draft picks. But watching the NBA deal with something like a dozen teams basically trying to lose their games in the 4-6 weeks of the season shows that MLB has it right with the strict limitations on trading draft picks.
The NBA could also learn from MLB’s handling of teams drafting in the lottery. Sure, the lottery is different between the two leagues—four teams in the NBA to six in the MLB—but it could be adapted.
In the MLB, a team cannot receive a lottery pick in more than two consecutive years. This is why the woebegone Colorado Rockies will pick 10th in the upcoming draft despite finishing with the worst record in baseball in 2025—they’d drafted in the lottery in both 2024 and 2025. They weren’t tanking their way to 43 wins. They just sucked.
The NBA could grow its lottery to, say, six teams, and add a clause that a team can’t pick X number of consecutive years in the lottery—could even be two consecutive years. That would dissuade teams such as the Kings, Wizards, Pelicans, Jazz, etc. from continually employing a destitute roster.
Obviously, I don’t know the answer(s) to fix the NBA’s tanking woes, but I’m confident in saying that it could look to the MLB for help. Before MLB instituted the draft lottery, tanking for the top pick was rare. Now, it essentially never happens. Major League Baseball got it right on its first attempt in implementing the lottery.
Mr. Silver, take a look at America’s pastime to solve your league’s tanking woes. You’ll be glad you did.
‘ The preceding article may include information circulated by third parties ’
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