Royals All-Star closer’s Opening Day ramp-up hasn’t brought ease of mind at all

The Royals have a lot riding on this season. After a trip to the ALDS in 2024 and missing the postseason in 2025, the Royals think they have the right team to get back to playing October baseball again.

Royals closer Carlos Estévez is an instrumental part to the Royals postseason formula. Estévez led the league in saves with 42, something a Royals closer hadn’t done since Greg Holland in 2013.

Estévez tied a career-high with a 2.45 ERA in 66 innings in 2025, and those 42 saves were a career-high.

His appearances were more like adventures, but he got the job done more times than not, and the Royals are counting on him to be that premier closer once again.

Those plans haven’t looked as rock solid as they did when the Royals first arrived in Surprise, Arizona, for spring training.

Estevez walked three in his second-most recent outing on March 19, and his velocity has dipped to below 90 mph, topping out at 89 mph.

The nine-year vet is known for a slow ramp-up to speed throughout his career, but should the Royals be in panic mode about their All-Star closer?

Carlos Estévez’s slow ramp-up in spring training is certainly a concern

While the dip in velocity is concerning, his 30.4% zone rate is the most alarming number. It’s not new for Estévez to deal with decreased 4-seam velocity early in the year. This has been a trend for him throughout his career.

Here’s a look at Estevez’s mph on his fastball by year, with the number on the left is the average 4-seam speed during spring training, and the number on the right represents the average 4-seam speed during the regular season.

He always has to build up his fastball through the early portion of the season. It’s not unique to Estevez, of course, but it is a big deal to lose even one mph off your fastball.

General Manager J.J. Picollo talked about Carlos Estévez’s dip in velocity with the Kansas City Star and had some honest answers to what he’s seeing.

“It’s hard not to notice it, but we also had the experience of last year, and we went through the same thing,” Picollo said. “And I think last year we were a little bit more nervous about it, because we hadn’t been with him before.

“But not only did he tell us that this is how he always starts in spring training, but the other clubs he had been with, our coaches called their coaches and asked, ‘Is this normal?’ And they confirmed it for us. “So while you would like to see him more in the 91-92 range right now, this is exactly where he was last year.”

Estévez has not looked like himself this spring. It’s not just the fastball velocity, he’s missing the zone more than he typically does with his fastball and his changeup.

As mentioned earlier, that 30% figure has no choice but to improve. For his career, his zone rate lives in the mid to high 50% range for his 4-seamer.

Out of the 28 pitches he threw in his outing on March 18, only nine of them were strikes.

He fared better in his most recent start on March 20 where he pitched a scoreless inning and didn’t allow a run. He even eclipsed 91 mph on the fastball.

With Opening Day less than a week away, the Royals have a decision to make. I don’t see how you can throw Estévez in high-leverage situations, given how his fastball looks and how badly he’s missing the zone.

It could be something mechanical, or it could be Father Time. Estévez is 33 and isn’t getting any younger (You have no idea how painful it was to type this as a 34-year-old).

He’s gradually lost velocity from his fastball, but has still found ways to get guys out. His track record and salary most likely let him hold on to the closer role for now.

The Royals will need to be smart with how they play him. If he’s still down in velocity and blowing games in April, it’s hard to imagine him keeping the closer job.

The Royals made the bullpen a priority in the offseason, and it looks like that depth could be tested right away. If Estévez has a bad start to his campaign, Erceg and Strahm would be the next man up.

If it were me managing the team, I’d call Luinder Avila and tell him to pack his bags and see him in Kansas City first thing in the morning. The Royals’ No. 9 prospect is dripping with potential as a a fireball-throwing late-inning guy, but they already optioned him to Triple-A Omaha.

Rats.

Since you or I won’t be managing the team this year, the best we can do is hope Estévez can spin life back into his fastball sooner rather than later.