Braves vs. Royals, Game 3

It’s Atlanta Braves baseball! Let’s break down everything you need to know about tonight’s matchup.

• First Pitch: 1:35 PM ET

• Location: Truist Park, Atlanta

• TV: BravesVision

• Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan,

• Weather: 65° and mostly sunny, 9 mph wind

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RF Ronald Acuña Jr. (R)
C Drake Baldwin (L)
1B Matt Olson (L)
3B Austin Riley (R)
LF Mike Yastrzemski (L)
2B Ozzie Albies (S)
CF Michael Harris II (L)
DH Dominic Smith (L)
SS Jorge Mateo (R)

Quick thoughts:

• It’s the lineup debut of Mateo, who was one of Atlanta’s pinch runners on Saturday night in a successful late rally to take game two. He’s also the only Braves starter today to have never seen Seth Lugo.

3B Maikel Garcia (R)
SS Bobby Witt Jr. (R)
1B Vinnie Pasquantino (L)
DH Salvador Perez (R)
C Carter Jensen (L)
LF Lane Thomas (R)
RF Jac Caglianone (L)
2B Nick Loftin (R)
CF Kyle Isbel (L)

Quick thoughts:

• This is the season debut of Nick Loftin, replacing Jonathan India at second base and batting eighth.

• It’s also a new outfield configuration, one that combines the power of Caglianone with the defense of Isbel and the ‘we’re not asking you to play centerfield’ aspect for Lane Thomas.

• Prospect Carter Jensen gets his first start behind the plate for Kansas City. There’s no way he’s as good at ABS challenges as Salvy, right? RIGHT?

Quick snapshot (2025):

• 3.99 ERA / 4.55 xERA / 4.40 FIP

• 25.0 K% / 11.0 BB% / 3.3% HR

• Pitch mix (avg FB velo = 94.5 mph)

  • vs RHH: 45% slider, 35% 4S, 13% cutter, 7% curveball,

  • vs LHH: 31% 4S, 26% slider, 24% curveball, 18% cutter, 2% changeup

What to watch:

• Unlike Chris Sale and Reynaldo López, Holmes was throwing pretty close to last year’s average in spring training. He sat 93.7 with his four-seamer in Grapefruit League play and ran it up to 96.2, a mark he exceeded only twelve times all of last year. Where does his velo come in today?

• Holmes is now on his second season of a kick change instead of a normal changeup…but last season, he threw it only 23 times (and also threw a sinker exactly twice). Is this when he finally makes it a bigger part of his arsenal?

  • If you do, Grant, don’t throw it to either Bobby Witt Jr. (+6 RV) or Vinnie Pasquantino (+4); they’re both pretty good at hitting changeups, although a kick change is a bit of a different beast.

Quick snapshot (2025):

The arsenal (2025):

• Pitch 1 = four-seam fastball, 21.2% usage, 91.7 mph

• Pitch 2 = curveball, 18.2% usage

• Pitch 3 = sinker, 14.7%

• Pitch 4 = cutter, 14%

• Pitch 5 = changeup, 9.5%

• Pitch 6 = slurve, 9.5%

• Pitch 7 = slider, 5.5%

• Pitch 8 = slow curve, 4.8%

• Pitch 9 = sweeper, 2%

• Pitch 10 = split finger, 0.6%

Did I talk about Michael Wacha being the model of a kitchen sink guy on Saturday just so I could double down on the concept today? Maybe.

Because if Wacha’s the platonic ideal of the concept, Lugo is the concept taken to its most absurd conclusion. He legitimately throws ten different pitches, with virtually zero tendencies to be aware or take advantage of. He doesn’t really do anything well except induce swings, but he has the advantage with those swings of you almost never being right if you’re sitting on a specific pitch. It’s fun to watch as an amateur pitching nerd, but must be frustrating as an opposing hitter.

How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher’s arsenal in a given count (color key below). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.

• Another test of pitch recognition out of the hand, which they mostly failed last night against Michael Wacha.

• Some Braves hitters have seen Lugo more than a dozen times and/or have decent track records against him: Acuña is batting .429 w/ an 985 OPS in 14 ABs, Michael Harris is 3-9, Dom Smith is 4-9, and Matt Olson is 4-8 with a homer. On the flip side of this, Austin Riley is batting just .241 in 14 ABs, albeit with a homer, and Ozzie Albies is batting .211 with a bomb in 19 ABs.

Potential limitations:

• Without knowing how much Walt Weiss wants to push his arms, there’s virtually a 0% chance that Dylan Lee pitches today. I’d imagine they want to stay away from Osvaldo Bido, if they can.

Quick takeaway:

• Raisel Iglesias hasn’t yet pitched, but if you assume that both Didier Fuentes and José Suarez are being saved for starts in the next series, than everyone else has at least once. The official rotation for next series only has one TBA, on Tuesday, so one of them might be available for work today if needed.

• How long does it take Atlanta to get Lugo out of the game? They were mostly ineffective against Wacha yesterday (6 IP, 3H, 7 Ks), but had all of their success against the KC bullpen.

• Atlanta’s held slugger Vinnie Pasquantino in check this entire series. Does he make an impact today? He does well against sliders and fastballs, and Holmes’ heater is definitely lacking in shape and performance.

I never want to predict a sweep, but I feel like the obstacle to overcoming Seth Lugo isn’t the quality of his stuff, it’s the sheer number of pitches he throws. His statcast card has a lot of blue on it and there’s not really anything he does well except induce swings. Provided Atlanta’s pitching holds up today, I like them to win this one.

If you want to know what’s about to happen before first pitch, The Scouting Report has you covered.