Ragans News Should Make Trade Deadline Plan Clearer for Royals – Royals

On Tuesday, before the Royals’ second game against the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field, manager Matt Quatraro shared some deflating news about Opening Day starter Cole Ragans.

Here’s what Quatraro shared with the media, as shared by KC Star Royals beat writer Jaylon Thompson.

It’s been a difficult year for Ragans, who was already coming off an injury-plagued 2025 campaign. 

In eight starts and 35.1 IP this year, the 28-year-old lefty posted a 4.84 ERA, a 1.42 WHIP, and a 6.18 FIP. Once again, Ragans proved to be a strikeout machine with a 29.8% K%. Unfortunately, he struggled with his control, posting a 15.2% BB% and 14.6% K-BB%. He also allowed a 26.3% HR/FB%, nearly double his rate from a year ago.

When looking at his TJ Stuff+ summary from this year, the stuff and whiff rates remained solid, but he struggled to find the strike zone and allowed too much hard contact, as demonstrated by his rough xwOBACON numbers. 

Ragans had a 104 overall TJ Stuff+ and three pitches with grades over 55 (four-seamer, changeup, and slider). He also had a 31.7%, which is excellent (he also had a 30.9% whiff rate on the four-seamer and a 40.4% mark on the changeup). However, Ragans’ 44.4%  zone rate was mediocre, and that command inefficiency allowed hitters to be more selective, which explains the slightly subpar chase rate. Overall, the former Ranger allowed a .428 xwOBACON, with his changeup (.452) and knucklecurve (1.267) getting hit particularly hard. 

For context, it wasn’t just an increase in walks that hurt Ragans. When looking at his Statcast percentile comparison between this year and 2025, he saw massive declines in categories in which he thrived a year ago. That sharp regression illustrated that something was ailing Ragans on the mound.

In 2025, he ranked in the 98th percentile in xwOBA, 70th percentile in O-Swing%, and 69th percentile in Swing%. This year? He ranks in the 30th percentile in xwOBA, 25th percentile in O-Swing%, and 24th percentile in Swing%. Those are massive declines and uncharacteristic for him, even though he could be prone to wildness at times on the mound. 

The data showed that something was wrong with Ragans, and so far, the Royals have seemingly acted accordingly, even though they haven’t been specific about his injury.

A couple of weeks ago, he was pulled from his rehab stint in Omaha after experiencing elbow soreness the day after his start. Less than a week ago, he was moved from the 15-Day IL to the 60-Day IL. Now, he’s en route to surgery and could not just miss the remainder of the season, but perhaps a significant portion of the 2027 campaign.

So what does this latest setback mean for not just Ragans, but a Royals rotation that’s running on fumes?

This Will Be Third Major Surgery for Ragans

Ragans has an extensive injury history, which explains why the Rangers made him available in the Aroldis Chapman trade back in 2023. 

In 2018, as a Minor Leaguer in the Rangers system, he underwent his first Tommy John surgery. In May 2019, he had a second Tommy John surgery after they found out the first surgery didn’t address what had been ailing him initially. While there were two surgeries, many experts felt that Ragans’ situation was better characterized as one “long” surgery because he didn’t pitch much during his rehabilitation after the first unsuccessful surgery.

A full breakdown of his surgery, recovery, and comeback can be found in this piece from Tread Athletics, which supported Ragans in his second rehabilitation process and helped him develop into an “ace” pitcher with the Royals.

It’s unclear if the surgery to repair a VEO impingement will be similar to Tommy John surgery or what kind of timetable it will put Ragans on, recovery-wise. If it is a similar recovery time to Tommy John surgery, then Ragans may miss the entirety of 2027.

The Royals will face an interesting dilemma regarding Ragans’ contract at the conclusion of next season.

In February of 2025, Ragans and the Royals agreed to a three-year, $13.25 million extension. The deal bought out three of Ragans’ arbitration years, and he is due to make $4.583 million this year and $7.583 million next season. However, the deal leaves his final year of arbitration open for 2028, which would be the last year the Royals would have control over Ragans.

As of now, a positive aspect of this injury situation is that the Royals could negotiate a cheap one-year deal with Ragans after his current deal expires at the end of next season. While Ragans hasn’t been healthy the past two years, he showed in 2024 that when he is, he can be one of the best starting pitchers in the league.

In 2024, Ragans posted a 3.14 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 2.98 FIP, and 20.5% K-BB% in 186.1 IP. He demonstrated not just excellent stuff but also posted strong numbers in zone, chase, whiff, and xwOBACON, as evidenced by his TJ Stuff+ summary from that All-Star season. 

The Royals could put their blind trust in Ragans, perhaps extend him after next year on a super-cheap deal, with the hope that he will be 100 percent in 2028 and 2029, at the very least. As much as Royals fans would like to trade Ragans now, especially after two injury-plagued years in a row, the reality is that this latest setback probably kills his trade value.

One has to wonder if the Royals regret not trading Ragans for a package involving Jarren Duran when they had the chance this offseason.

With this latest news, Kansas City may be better served by investing in Ragans, hoping he bounces back and outperforms his contract, rather than trading him for pennies on the dollar after this surgery.

How Does This Royals Staff Adapt?

The Royals have gotten lucky with their pitching depth.

In addition to Ragans, Kansas City has lost Kris Bubic to an extended absence, and his outlook remains murky after he was pulled from a rehab stint due to shoulder soreness. On a positive note, he had a bullpen session last week, so at least he’s in a better spot for an MLB return than Ragans.

Right now, the Royals’ rotation is in decent shape with Michael Wacha, Seth Lugo, Stephen Kolek, Noah Cameron, and Luinder Avila. Even though Avila wasn’t the sharpest in the Royals’ 12-5 win over the Rays, he did a great job of working through jams and minimizing hard contact in the winning effort, as illustrated below in his TJ Stuff+ summary.

That said, while Kansas City may be okay for now, they could be in trouble if someone else gets hurt. Having a contingency plan explains why they acquired MLB veterans Randy Dobnak and Matt Moore. They are guys who could fill in at the MLB level if needed.

Still, it may be worthwhile for the Royals to think about acquiring starting pitching depth at the Trade Deadline, especially since Bubic will be a free agent next year and with Ragans likely out for a majority, if not all, of next season. 

Last year, GM JJ Picollo traded catcher Freddy Fermin to San Diego for Kolek and Ryan Bergert. Kolek has obviously been a success story, but Bergert was on a positive trajectory with the Royals until an early-season injury in Omaha that required surgery. Like Ragans, Bergert’s future for 2027 is questionable, but he holds solid starter potential if healthy, as evidenced by his TJ Stuff+ summary from a year ago.

In 76.1 IP, Bergert posted a 3.66 ERA and 1.26 WHIP with a 105 TJ Stuff+ and 51.5% zone rate. He needs to improve his chase and whiff rates, as well as his xwOBACON, to be a more dependable arm in the rotation. Nonetheless, Bergert proved last year that, if healthy, he could be a No. 4 or 5 starter in this rotation, much like Kolek. 

In fact, Kolek’s TJ Stuff+ metrics have paled in comparison to Bergert’s. And yet, the 29-year-old former Padres pitcher has demonstrated success with the Royals, sans last Sunday’s disastrous outing against the Cardinals. 

The Royals need to be aggressive in acquiring starting pitching this summer, much like they were last summer in the Fermin trade. Even after a second-straight win over the Rays, which improves their record to 34-46, Kansas City is still 7.5 games back in the division and has 5.8% odds to make the postseason, according to Fangraphs. That percentage is the lowest of any team in the AL Central.

Safe to say, Picollo and the Royals front office need to be thinking about 2027, even with this positive stretch in June. 

To acquire pitching to make up for the Bubic and Ragans losses next year, Kansas City could lose some popular players. However, if they trade the right assets, such as Lane Thomas, John Schreiber, or Daniel Lynch IV, just to name a few, they could get the starting pitcher or just general pitching depth they need to feel better about their outlook for 2027 and beyond. 

Losing Ragans for the year is a tough pill to swallow for this organization that has been snakebitten by injury. That said, this is an opportunity for the Royals to mold their organization in-season in the right way and to get a head start for the upcoming offseason as well.