While the Major League Baseball season winds down, the National Hockey League is getting ready to drop the puck. Over at The Athletic, which is my go-to website for hockey, they’ve been previewing the upcoming season in a myriad of ways, including re-drafting several recent drafts.
Interestingly, with only slight variations, the tops of the drafts have been consistent with what actually took place.
My brain connected these re-drafts with Baltimore’s recent extension of their young catcher/first baseman, Samuel Basallo. Now, Basallo wasn’t drafted—he was an international signing—but the Orioles notably took another catcher, Adley Rutschman, with the No. 1 pick in the 2019 draft, one spot ahead of the Royals selecting Bobby Witt Jr.
I don’t know what the plan is in Baltimore, whether Basallo is going to permanently supplant Rutschman behind the plate in 2026. Right now, Basallo’s making those starts as Rutschman has been on the Injured List for over a month. With the Orioles well out of contention, there’s no need to rush him back, either.
But the fact that, six seasons later, there’s even a question of replacing Rutschman while Witt posts yet another MVP-like season illustrates that the Orioles made the wrong pick to start the 2019 draft, much to Kansas City’s gain.
At the time, selecting Rutschman over Witt wasn’t in the least bit questionable. I recently found my copy of that year’s draft preview from Baseball America, and it featured Rutschman on the cover and then prominently throughout the pages. And for good reason.
Rutschman starred at Oregon State. During his time there, the Beavers finished third in the nation in 2017 before capturing the College World Series the following season. Over three seasons, in addition to playing stellar defense at catcher, Rutschman, a switch-hitter, slashed .352/.473/.559. Impressively, he walked 39 more times than he struck out. He’d just turned 21 when the Orioles drafted him.
For the first two-and-a-half seasons of his Baltimore tenure, Rutschman looked like the real deal. He finished second in American League Rookie of the Year voting in 2022 while also receiving downvotes for the MVP. He followed that up with his first All-Star appearance in 2023 as he raised his OPS three points to .809 as he finished with 20 home runs to go with 92 walks. The first half of 2024 went just as well.
Since then, though, something’s gone wrong. During the second half of last season he slashed a mere .207/.282/.303. Then this season, appearing in a career-low 85 games, those numbers have improved, but are still below league-average: .227/.310/.373. Notably, unlike Basallo, Rutschman is not signed long-term.
Compare that to Bobby Witt Jr. and, well, there’s no comparison, really.
After figuring it out during his rookie season, Witt’s rocketed to stardom as the face of the franchise. But for Aaron Judge, Witt would’ve secured his first MVP award last season as a 24-year-old. Instead, he finished second, his second top-10 finish in the MVP race. Expect a third such finish for 2025. Additionally, he’s made two All-Star games and earned a Silver Slugger (as has Rutschman, I’ll note) and a Gold Glove. He should add more hardware for his performance this season.
To boot, he’s more than two years younger than Rutschman.
Before that 2019 Draft, over at KC Kingdom, I wrote about multiple scenarios regarding the first two picks. One seemed most likely, and it happened: Baltimore goes with Rutschman, Kansas City takes Witt. Another possible outcome: Baltimore takes Witt. Then surely the Royals would’ve selected Rutschman. The third, and least likely, scenario had the Orioles taking a third player and then leaving the Royals to choose between Witt and Rutschman. Who would the Royals have selected between the two?
In a re-draft occurring today, the Orioles nab Witt, and the Royals would probably take a different Baltimore Oriole, one who fell to the second round of that draft—shortstop Gunnar Henderson.
Realistically, selecting Rutschman and then Henderson probably eases the Orioles’ pains over passing over Witt at No. 1. Bobby Witt Jr. versus Gunnar Henderson will be a storyline to follow for many seasons. Still, I’m sure the Orioles would love a left side of the infield that consists of Henderson and Witt.
Some other notes about the 2019 MLB Draft:
- Both the Nos. 3 and 4 picks, Andrew Vaughn (White Sox) and JJ Bleday (Marlins), are already with different teams. Vaughn struggled in Chicago before moving to Milwaukee. Bleday posted 2.1 bWAR last year for the Athletics before dropping back down to a replacement-level player this season.
- With the N0. 5 pick, the Tigers selected the second high-school player of the draft in outfielder Riley Greene. While he strikes out a lot, Greene’s power has come alive the past two seasons. While his OPS has dropped a bit this season, he’s surpassed 30 home runs and 100 RBIs.
- Yet another burgeoning superstar went to Arizona with pick No. 16: Corbin Carroll, who won the National League Rookie of the Year in 2023 while finishing 5th in MVP voting. This year his OPS+ is higher than that season.
- Perhaps the strangest career of any 2019 first-rounder belongs to Alek Manoah, the pitcher selected by the Blue Jays out of West Virginia with pick No. 11. In 2022, his second full season, Manoah pitched lights out, going 16-7 with a 2.24 ERA, 3.35 FIP, and 0.992 WHIP en route to finishing third in Cy Young Voting. Since then, he’s made only 24 appearances in the Majors, none this season.
- Other Royals draft picks that year include Alec Marsh (second round), Michael Massey (fourth), John Rave (fifth), Vinnie Pasquantino (11th), and Tyler Tolbert (13th). Not bad.
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