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“Where do the Red Sox go from here?” To the upper echelon of starting rotations, that’s where. Plus: Ken on the Mets’ odd fit with Kyle Tucker, Nolan Arenado is (finally) on the move and the Royals are tinkering with their park’s dimensions. I’m Levi Weaver, here with Ken Rosenthal — welcome to The Windup!
Big Deals: Ranger Suárez to Red Sox
In our last Windup, we mused how Boston might pivot after Alex Bregman signed with the Cubs.
A lineup upgrade is still possible, but for now, the signing of Ranger Suárez (five years, $130 million) gives the Red Sox a rotation that is starting to look more hydra than human: Garrett Crochet, Suárez, Brayan Bello, Sonny Gray and one of: Kutter Crawford/Johan Oviedo/Payton Tolle (23 years old)/Connelly Early (23)/Kyle Harrison (24).
That’s a lot of competition for the fifth spot, but remember teams like to have about 10 options these days (maybe you heard arm injuries are an epidemic). Well, good news: They also have Patrick Sandoval and Tanner Houck expected back at some point. That’s 11 pretty solid starting pitchers.
As for the 30-year-old Suárez, he has one of the more interesting Baseball Savant pages:
Fastball Velo: seventh percentile.
Hard-Hit percentage: 98th percentile!
To clarify, that’s good. That’s a pitcher who is being paid handsomely to plant persistent seeds of doubt in the minds of big league hitters.
So, what’s next? Bo Bichette is still out there, but Matt Gelb tells us why Philadelphia might have the inside edge. Maybe the Red Sox could upgrade their infield by trading some of that starting pitching depth?
Ken’s Notebook: Mets’ pursuit of Tucker raises questions
From Ken Rosenthal’s latest notes column:
Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns told the team’s beat reporters Tuesday that after the season, opposing coaches and executives shared with him a common sentiment: “Your defense wasn’t close to good enough.”
So how is it that the Mets are offering star free agent Kyle Tucker a three-year deal that is at least in the range of $40 million to $47 million per season, per The Athletic’s Will Sammon, and as high as $50 million, per FanSided’s Robert Murray?
Tucker, who turns 29 on Saturday, surely would deepen the Mets’ lineup. He was a Gold Glove finalist in 2020 and ‘21 and a winner in ‘22. But he has since declined in right field, and according to Outs Above Average, was a worse defensive outfielder last season than Brandon Nimmo. By the same metric, the Mets’ current $51 million per year man, Juan Soto, was the worst defensive right fielder in the game.
If the Mets sign Tucker, either he or Soto will need to move from right to left field. Perhaps the Mets could get more defensively out of both, to the point where they are at least average. But Tucker would be a curious choice for a team supposedly hellbent on improving its defense. His low-key personality might not be an ideal fit for the New York market, either.
Sagas: Arenado (finally) traded — to Arizona
Last offseason, the Astros thought they had a deal in place to acquire Nolan Arenado. But after they traded Tucker, the Cardinals third baseman decided he didn’t like Houston’s direction and invoked his no-trade clause. The Astros went with Isaac Paredes instead — trade dead.
This year, a similar situation played out, but with the opposite results. After dragging it out for weeks, the Diamondbacks decided not to trade second baseman Ketel Marte after all. Shortly after that, Arenado waived that no-trade clause, and the Cardinals swapped him for 22-year-old RHP Jack Martinez — the D-Backs’ eighth-round pick in last year’s draft.
St. Louis will also be paying $31 million of the remaining $42 million on Arenado’s contract, which runs through 2027. That’s a pretty good deal for the Diamondbacks. No, Arenado is not in his prime, when he finished in the top 10 in NL MVP voting from 2015-2019 (and again in 2022). And yes, he’s a 10-time Gold Glover, but won his last one in 2022, and his last All-Star appearance was in 2023. Over the last two years, he has hit .257/.310/.387 (.697 OPS).
That’s certainly not “$42 million over the next two years” good, but it’s probably better than “$11 million over the next two years” mediocre — especially when the name recognition should help sell some tickets.
- Best-case scenario: The 34-year-old rebounds, resulting in a playoff run or a deadline move to a contender (ideally for a better prospect than the D-Backs gave up).
- Worst-case scenario? I mean … injury? Even worse hitting? A freak accident that leads to him forgetting how to play baseball, but now he can suddenly play piano and speak French? (Even in the worst scenarios, there might be an unforeseen bright side.)
But the most likely scenario is fairly boring: Arenado gives the D-Backs solid defense at third base, and they sell a few more tickets.
From the Cardinals’ perspective: Sure, why not? You save $11 million, and the next generation gets a shot. The only surprise was that it wasn’t to Boston, which already traded for the aforementioned Sonny Gray and Willson Contreras this winter, but is recently down a third baseman.
This is the nature of a rebuild, though. Eventually, you eat money and trade away the guys you acquired in the good times, back when you were … um … a combined 0-3 in playoff games during Arenado’s five-year tenure in St. Louis.
Baseball is hard.
Geometry: Royals moving fences in
The Royals finished 27th of 30 teams in home runs hit at home (70) last year.
Citing “competitive reasons,” the Royals decided to metaphorically lower the rim so they could finally do that sick 360-degree windmill dunk. The Kauffman Stadium outfield walls are coming in about 10 feet in left and right field, and they’re being lowered by about 18 inches basically everywhere.
It’s easy an incredibly difficult and rare skill to make jokes in a newsletter, but there are actually some fascinating ramifications to this move. First, while it might increase home runs, it might end up decreasing batting average — Kauffman Stadium has always been known to have a lot of space for outfielders to cover.
It’s also known for being a low-strikeout park. Eno Sarris (of course) has a numbers-first look at what the wall moves will mean, and it includes one interesting theory on the soon-to-be former dimensions:
“The pitchers know they won’t give up homers,” Tommy Pham of PhamGraphs fame once told me, “So they live in the zone without being scared.
The last time a team moved its walls, the Orioles pretty quickly decided, “Oops, too far,” and moved them back in a bit. We’ll see how it shakes out in Kansas City.
Handshakes and High Fives
Sam Blum spoke to Rio Foster, the Angels prospect who was severely injured as a passenger in a drunk driving accident last season. Recovery — to the extent it’s even possible — will be on the scale of years, not months. But the Angels have yet to decide if they’ll keep him on a minor-league roster so he doesn’t lose his health insurance.
On Tuesday, the Hall of Fame’s 2026 class will be revealed. Here’s how (most of) our voters voted, with explanations, and here’s Jayson Stark’s ballot column.
Jim Bowden has an overview of some of the more perplexing storylines of this offseason. What are the Tigers thinking?
Brendan Kuty has the latest on the standoff between the Yankees and Cody Bellinger, but Chris Kirschner says a reunion feels “inevitable.”
After playing its inaugural season in Rosemont, Ill., the AUSL (softball) is spreading out — the league has announced homes for each of its six teams.
On the pods: “Rates and Barrels” has begun its positional previews, starting with shortstop and third base.
Most-clicked in our last newsletter: The story on all nine remaining MLB teams leaving Main Street/FanDuel. Well, there’s an update.
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