Braves vs Royals, Game 1

It’s Atlanta Braves baseball! Let’s break down everything you need to know about tonight’s matchup.

• First Pitch: 7:15 PM ET

• Location: Truist Park, Atlanta

• TV: BravesVision, simulcast on Gray TV

• Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan; Spanish-language broadcast on La Mejor 1600/1460/1130 AM

• Weather: 79° and partially cloudy, 12 mph wind

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RF Ronald Acuña Jr. (R)
DH Drake Baldwin (L)
2B Ozzie Albies (S)
1B Matt Olson (L)
3B Austin Riley (R)
LF Eli White (R)
SS Mauricio Dubón (R)
C Jonah Heim (S)
CF Michael Harris II (L)

Quick thoughts:

• Manager Walt Weiss indicated yesterday that he’d go with Heim as the catcher and Baldwin as the DH. I’m assuming Heim’s 95 wRC+ against lefties in the last three seasons (as opposed to an 80 wRC+ versus RHP in that same span) is the reason why.

• It’s been an open question of whether or not the Braves would let Mike Yastrzemski face lefties as part of the regular lineup. For at least one day, they are not doing that, instead going with White in left. I’d imagine Yastrzemski is the first pinch-hitter off the bench, though.

• I honestly did not expect to see Albies in the #3 hole and then a run of three straight righties later in the order – breaking them up with something like Albies/White/Dubón would have made more sense to me.

3B Maikel Garcia (R)
SS Bobby Witt Jr. (R)
CF Lane Thomas (R)
C Salvador Perez (R)
1B Vinnie Pasquantino (L)
RF Starling Marte (R)
2B Jonathan India (R)
LF Isaac Collins (S)
DH Carter Jensen (L)

Quick thoughts:

• As expected, a heavy platoon lineup here, with lefties Jac Caglianone and Kyle Isbel taking a seat for veterans Starling Marte and Lane Thomas. Might be an opportunity here for Atlanta with regards to balls in play, as neither Thomas in center nor Marte in right grades out to be very good defenders at this point in their careers.

• Perez-Pasquantino-Marte might collectively be the slowest 4-6 hitters playing today.

• Jensen’s struggled with lefties in the minors until last season, when he hit .290 off of them in Double and Triple-A. Don’t know how predictive it is, given it was only 143 PAs, but don’t be shocked if Collins and Jensen end up being pesky down there.

Quick snapshot (2025):

• 2.58 ERA / 2.85 xERA / 2.67 FIP

• 32.4 K% / 6.3 BB% / 2.2% HR

• Pitch mix (avg FB velo = 94.8 mph)

  • vs RHH: 46% slider, 44% 4SFB, 9% changeup, 1% sinker

  • vs LHH: 51% SL, 31% 4SFB, 15% sinker, 2% changeup

What to watch:

• No historical problems for Sale with this Royals lineup – no one has more than 7 at-bats off of Sale in their career but Salvador Pérez, and he’s hitting .265 with a .628 OPS and just one homer/ four RBI in his 68 career at-bats.

• The game plan for Sale doesn’t really change, regardless of handedness: Equal use of fastballs and sliders early, and as soon as he’s ahead in the count, start ripping sliders for whiffs. The only difference is that lefties see a distribution of two parts four-seamers to one part sinkers, while righties are almost exclusively four-seamers.

• Milestone watch: Sale is six strikeouts away from having 50 on Opening Day. 13 of the 18 pitches in MLB history to do that are in the Hall of Fame, and the remaining five are mostly inclusion-worthy names in Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, Clayton Kershaw, Roger Clemens, and Mickey Lolich.

The arsenal (2025):

• Pitch 1 = 4S FB, 49% usage, 95.3 mph

• Pitch 2 = changeup, 19% usage

• Pitch 3 = slider, 14% usage

• Pitch 4 = curveball, 13%

• Pitch 5 = cutter, 5% usage

Ragans was one of the best pitchers in baseball last year at getting whiffs (34.8%, 98th percentile) and strikeouts (38.1%, 100th percentile). He gets an above-average amount of chase (68th percentile mark of 29.8%), but he is willing and able to challenge you in the zone. He’s an Opening Day starter for a reason, folks.

How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher’s arsenal in a given count (color key below). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.

• Ragans lives and dies by the fastball. He loves to go to it to open an at-bat, uses it to get back into the AB if he’s behind in the count, and trusts it whenever he must have a strike. As much as Atlanta’s been working on their patience at the plate, there will be some ambush opportunities if they’re willing to pull the trigger early.

• Know who Atlanta’s three best hitters were against four-seamers last year? Acuña (+16 Run Value), Baldwin (+11), and Olson (+9). Baldwin’s hard-hit rate against lefty fastballs in particular was 80%.

  • An underrated contributor, though, is Eli White – he was +5 RV against four-seam fastballs and that’s an accumulation stat; his rate was 1.8 RV/100, the third-highest on the team.

• Michael Harris II really struggled against lefty heaters last year, coming in at -3 RV, albeit with a 59.1% hard-hit rate.

Potential limitations:

Quick takeaway:

• I’m curious to see if Walt Weiss sticks with Lee/Suarez/Iglesias regardless of handedness, which was one of my peeves with Brian Snitker last year, or if he’s willing to flop Lee and Suarez for specific ‘lanes’ of the lineup that would benefit from a reliever of a specific handedness.

• Who covers bulk innings if Chris Sale exits early? My guess is whoever does that would not be the 5th starter for Tuesday and would rather get the 6th start on Wednesday.

• The top of Atlanta’s order vs Ragans – can they generate traffic and run up his pitch count?

• How does Heim handle Sale behind the plate? We know the veteran lefty won’t shake his catcher off, so Heim has carte blanche to call the game as he sees fit.

• Atlanta’s bullpen deployment if it’s a close game. Are there clearly defined roles, or is Weiss willing to be a bit more ‘fuzzy’ with his usage based on who is coming up to bat instead of a predetermined pitching plan?

It’s finally Opening Day, and the Braves are poised to start the season in the win column. I like Atlanta’s chances of getting to Ragans in the first inning and then handing a lead over to their bullpen.