Sam Connon takes you through his preview, prediction and pick for Thursday’s game between the Los Angeles Angels and Kansas City Royals.
Neither the Los Angeles Angels nor Kansas City Royals are alive in the MLB playoff race, but there is still a series rubber match on the books for Thursday. Veteran Michael Lorenzen will take the mound for Kansas City, facing off against Los Angeles’ rookie left-hander Mitch Farris.
The Royals are -119 moneyline favorites, while the run total is set at 9.5. Here is a preview of the Thursday night showdown at Angel Stadium featuring odds and lines from DraftKings Sportsbook.
Angels vs. Royals prediction, preview
The Angels took two out of three against the Royals earlier this month, all of which were lower-scoring contests. The series featured two six-run games and a seven-run game. Kansas City took game one of the next series by a score of 8-4 on Tuesday, only for Los Angeles to battle back and win 3-2 on Wednesday.
Farris’ MLB debut actually came against the Royals – in Kansas City – back on September 2. He gave up just three hits, two walks and one earned run that night, pitching five innings and getting the win. Lorenzen pitched that night, as well, getting stuck with the tough-luck loss after allowing four hits, one walk and two earned runs in six innings.
Lorenzen then proceeded to give up 10 earned runs in 8.1 innings between his next two starts. He got back on track with a scoreless relief outing, though, and the righty tossed 7.2 innings of one-run ball against the top-seeded Toronto Blue Jays his last time out. Farris, on the other hand, has been trending in the other direction as of late. The rookie posted a 2.45 ERA and 0.82 WHIP between his first two big league starts, only to a put up an 11.88 ERA and 2.28 WHIP in his last two. The 24-year-old southpaw wasn’t ranked among the Angels’ top 30 prospects when he got called up, and it’s starting to become clear why.
The Royals are attempting to finish above .500 in consecutive seasons for the first time since they won an American League pennant and the World Series in 2014 and 2015, respectively. They have managed to remain a mediocre club in spite of their offense that is tied for 26th in MLB with 626 runs scored this season. Over the last 10 contests, however, Kansas City is averaging 6.50 runs per game, scoring double-digits twice.
The Angels, meanwhile, are one loss away from being locked into last place in the AL West for the second year in a row. The franchise hadn’t finished last in the division since 1999, and they hadn’t done so in consecutive seasons since 1974 and 1975. Their offense ranks 24th in MLB with 662 runs in 2025, all while averaging 2.04 per game over their last 11.
Angels vs. Royals pick, best bet
Best Bet: Angels vs. Royals o9.5 (+102)
Farris’ downward trend, Lorenzen’s volatility and the Royals’ propensity to explode at the plate makes Thursday’s game ripe for an all-around offensive eruption. Angel Stadium is the eighth-most hitter-friendly park in the majors, per Statcast. Los Angeles has the worst bullpen ERA in the AL at 4.85, so even if Farris gets an early hook, Kansas City should have no problem running up the score. A series-clinching victory for the Royals – which would also even up the season series at three wins apiece – also seems likely, but there is more value in taking the over.
Strong Lean: Bobby Witt Jr. 3+ Total Bases (+143)
Witt was batting .333 with a 1.007 OPS in the eight games leading up to his 0-for-4 showing on Wednesday. Considering he hasn’t put up back-to-back hitless performances since his 0-for-15 slump between June 11 and June 14, the All-Star is more than likely to get back on track Thursday. Witt is averaging 2.08 total bases per game since June 27 and 2.56 since September 14, on top of averaging 3.40 total when coming off a hitless performance this month. And when the two went head-to-head a few weeks back, Witt had a triple off of Farris.
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