Sean Barnard provides his prediction and pick for Saturday’s Detroit Tigers at Kansas City Royals matchup.
The Kansas City Royals will host the Detroit Tigers tonight at 7:15 p.m. ET. The Tigers lead the AL Central with a 79-57 record, while the Royals are 9.5 games back and in second place in the division. Kansas City is currently three games out of the final Wild Card spot and will be intent on finishing strong to give itself the best chance to make the postseason. These teams opened the series yesterday with Detroit winning 5-3.
The Tigers are -120 favorites on the moneyline and hold +134 odds on tonight’s -1.5 run line on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Royals have -102 odds of winning the outright victory, with the run total set at 9.
Here’s my prediction and pick for Saturday’s Tigers vs. Royals matchup.
Tigers at Royals prediction
Jack Flaherty will be on the mound for the Tigers tonight and is making his 27th start of the season. The 29-year-old has a 7-13 record on the season with a 4.87 ERA. He’s allowed 21 home runs and struck out 165 across 136.2 innings pitched. He made his previous start against this same Royals team just over a week ago. Flaherty allowed a season-high 10 hits and eight earned runs in just five innings pitched. The Tigers’ bullpen is posting a collective 3.86 ERA, which ranks 11th in MLB.
The Tigers rank 14th in batting average, 14th in on-base percentage and 10th in slugging percentage. Detroit has tallied the 12th-most hits and eighth-most runs while ranking 10th in total bases. Left fielder Riley Greene leads the team with 136 hits, 32 home runs and 101 RBIs. His 169 strikeouts also lead the entire American League. Gleyber Torres, Spencer Torkelson and Zach McKinstry all tallied 100+ hits on the season.
Stephen Kolek will be making his first start of his Royals career tonight. The 28-year-old arrived in Kansas City at the trade deadline in the Freddy Fermín trade. Kolek made 14 starts with the Padres this season, as well as making 42 appearances out of the bullpen last year, and posted a 4-5 record and 4.18 ERA. He has struck out 56 and allowed just eight home runs across his opening 79.2 innings pitched. Kolek has not pitched against the Tigers before, nor any individual member of the Detroit roster.
The Royals rank 17th in batting average, 23rd in on-base percentage and 19th in slugging percentage across MLB. Kansas City has the 18th-most hits, but ranks 20th in total bases and 27th in total runs. Bobby Witt Jr. headlines the production with 156 total hits, an MLB-best 41 doubles, 19 home runs and 74 RBIs. Vinnie Pasquantino leads the team with 28 home runs and 94 RBIs. Maikel Garcia, Salvador Perez and Jonathan India all eclipsed 100 hits on the season.
Tigers vs. Royals pick, best bet
The Tigers picked up a victory in the series opener, but the uncertain pitching matchup clouds the outlook for this game. Kolek has just 126.1 career innings in the majors and has never faced any members of this Tigers team. Flaherty has a more significant sample size, but he will be looking to bounce back from his worst start of the season. The 10 hits and eight earned runs allowed each marked season-highs, with this coming against the same Royals team.
While my lean is toward the Tigers finding a way to win the second straight matchup of the series, my favorite bet is over nine runs. Detroit has hit the over in 60 of its last 108 games and has the fourth-best percentage of hitting the over on the season. Kansas City has not been as much of a cash cow, hitting the under in 55.6% of its games this season thus far. But it has tallied 10+ runs twice over its past five games and will enter confident following its previous outing against Flaherty. The game total went over nine runs in two of the three games in the previous series between these two teams, with them averaging 12 combined runs overall.
Expect the uncertain pitching matchup to be the story here and for both teams to have some difficulties shutting down their opponent. The nine-run total is a shade too low for my liking, and I expect the bats to come alive and push past this in the matchup tonight.
Best Bet: Over nine runs (-113)
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