In sports, 12 years is a long time, and the landscape can change dramatically in that time. That fall, the San Francisco Giants defeated the Kansas City Royals in a seven-game thriller to claim their third World Series title in five years.
Now, no player who appeared in that series is still active besides Salvador Perez, and since then, both teams have come upon bad fortune. The Giants have made the playoffs twice since that magical season, and while the Royals won the World Series the following season, their only other playoff appearance came in 2024.
At 2:10 p.m. ET this afternoon, Kansas City will hope to finish out a sweep of San Francisco in a low-stakes series between two of the league’s worst teams. Landen Roupp will start for the Giants, and Seth Lugo will crest the hill for the Royals.
Let’s break down this clash with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
San Francisco Giants at Kansas City Royals Best Bets
- San Francisco Giants -1.5 (+124): This all comes down to the starting pitching matchup, as Roupp is a solidly above-average starter and Lugo has been rather unimpressive this season. Additionally, San Francisco’s offense is much more dangerous away from Oracle Park.
- Rafael Devers 2+ Total Bases (+110): Devers had a miserable first month and a half of the season, but he’s picked it up. Since the start of May, he’s played like an All-Star, slashing .257/.337/.547. He has a great matchup against Lugo, who’s allowed an OPS 56 points higher to lefties than righties throughout his career.
San Francisco Giants at Kansas City Royals prediction, preview
It was only five seasons ago that San Francisco broke the Los Angeles Dodgers’ stranglehold on the NL West, winning 107 games, but over the following four campaigns, they were almost perfectly mediocre, finishing within four games of .500 in each season. Through 28 games this season, the Giants were 13-15, but once the losing started, it never stopped, and they’re currently 42-59, just two games ahead of the Colorado Rockies for the worst record in the National League. San Francisco has been losing despite having baseball’s 15th-best offense; while Rafael Devers has had one of the worst offensive seasons of his career, he’s still been solid overall, and free agency acquisition Luis Arráez has managed his highest OPS+. However, unlike in previous seasons, the Giants haven’t pitched well, as their bullpen ranks 10th-to-last in ERA and their rotation 12th-to-last. Robbie Ray, Logan Webb, and Roupp are a solid-if-unspectacular top three, but the back end of San Francisco’s rotation has been poor, and closer Caleb Kilian has been relatively unreliable. The Giants will likely be sellers at the trade deadline.
Kansas City has been even worse. The Royals went on an eight-game losing streak early in the season and had another stretch of 16 losses in 19 games. Even though they’ve picked it back up slightly since the start of June, going 20-23 in that stretch, they’re just 42-60 overall, just one game ahead of the Los Angeles Angels for the worst record in the American League. Kansas City has had baseball’s 13th-worst offense despite having perennial MVP candidate Bobby Witt Jr., who leads the AL in both WAR and stolen bases. 2025 All-Star Maikel Garcia has taken a step back, and Perez is no longer serviceable as an MLB starter. Additionally, the Royals have had the fifth-worst rotation and the second-worst bullpen, as their best starter (Michael Wacha) has a 3.66 ERA and three of their five most-used relievers have been worth negative WAR. Daniel Lynch IV has been just about the only bright spot. Lynch could be a trade target for several contending teams at the deadline.
Roupp should have an edge in the starting pitching matchup. He’s been a slightly above-average starting pitcher in each of his three seasons, with a career 104 ERA+, and this season, he’s recorded a 3.98 ERA across 19 starts. Roupp has been solid more often than not, allowing two or fewer earned runs in 12 of his starts, and his ERA has been undone by a few blow-ups. Advanced numbers paint a positive picture of him, though, as he sports a 73rd-percentile expected ERA, a 70th-percentile expected batting average, and 107 Location+. The 27-year-old isn’t great at incentivizing chases, so he ranks in just the 25th percentile in walk rate, but Kansas City has chased at an above-average rate and not drawn many free passes. Instead, Roupp has excelled at limiting hard contact, ranking in the top decile in average exit velocity, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate, which should make him a difficult matchup against a Royals team stacked with mashers. While Kansas City doesn’t hit many grounders, Roupp’s reliance on sinkers and curves should keep the ball in the park. The splits are against him, as he’s been worse on the road and the Royals much better at Kauffman Stadium, but he’s shut down plenty of powerful offenses on the road before.
Lugo hasn’t been as impressive. The Quarterrican broke out as a 34-year-old in 2024, finishing second in Cy Young Award voting after a 33-start, 3.00-ERA season, but he’s since regressed, posting a 4.39 mark across 20 starts so far this season. In fact, he’s in particularly poor form, having given up at least six earned runs in two of his past five starts. Advanced stats really aren’t a fan of his repertoire, as he ranks in the ninth percentile in expected ERA, the seventh in expected batting average, and the fifth in pitching run value. While he has an eclectic pitch mix, none of his offerings have been very valuable, as he has just 89 Stuff+. Lugo ranks in the bottom decile in chase and whiff rate, and while San Francisco does chase frequently, it rarely misses. Additionally, Lugo has been prone to giving up hard contact, ranking in the 15th percentile in hard-hit rate, the 10th percentile in average exit velocity, and the 21st percentile in barrel rate, and though the Giants are a soft-contact team, that’s still a dangerous combination against the likes of Devers and Casey Schmitt. His splits are mixed, as although he’s been better at home, San Francisco’s road offense has been the league’s sixth-best.
San Francisco Giants at Kansas City Royals pick, best bet
Best Bet: San Francisco Giants -1.5 (+124)
To be fair, the Giants haven’t won a game by multiple runs since the first game after the All-Star break last Friday, and Kansas City is 4-1 since the break. However, Roupp will be San Francisco’s best starter in this series, and the difference between a one-run loss and a two-run win isn’t all that huge in a sport as volatile as baseball.
Strong Lean: Rafael Devers 2+ Total Bases (+110)
While Devers has had a rough start to the second half of the season, he ended his first half by posting a 1.043 OPS across a 20-game stretch. Lugo mostly offers some variety of fastball to lefties, and this season, Devers has slugged .591 against righty fastballs.
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