Instant Oscar predictions for ‘Michael’: Here’s where the King of Pop biopic could break through

Michael is poised to moonwalk to the top of the box-office charts this weekend. Current projections have Antoine Fuqua’s embattled Michael Jackson movie earning between $65 million and $75 million domestically — which would be a new record for a musical biopic — and upwards of $150 million worldwide.

In other words, the film’s launch won’t be impacted by waves of negative reviews. Virtually every critic acknowledged that Michael is a glossed-over retelling of its subject’s life story, engineered to bounce from one musical highlight to another without dwelling on any of the troubling child-abuse allegations that plagued him later in life. Some reviewers still found elements to enjoy; most thought the sanitized story was too much to forgive.

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When Lionsgate initially hyped Michael two years ago at CinemaCon, the film seemed like it could be a bona fide Oscar contender, perhaps following the path of 21st century Academy Award players like Ray, Walk the Line, Bohemian Rhapsody, Rocketman , and A Complete Unknown — or at the very least be in the initial conversation, like Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere, Bob Marley: One Love, the Amy Winehouse biopic Back to Black, or Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance With Somebody.

Now that Michael has finally arrived in theaters after months of reshoots, a completely revamped third act, and a critical drubbing, we have to ask: does it have any chance to make some noise at the Oscars?

While it’s safe to say Michael has no shot at Best Picture, Best Director, or Best Screenplay, there are some categories where the biopic could be competitive.

Acting

First, let’s acknowledge that the two actors splitting duty as Michael — Jaafar Jackson (Michael’s nephew and Jermaine’s son) plays the older version, while Juliano Valdi portrays Jackson 5-era spark plug — bothhave undeniable charisma and performing chops as they uncannily recreate Michael’s signature moves. Still, neither will be in the Oscar mix; instead, Colman Domingo as fire-breathing father Joe Jackson is the cast member who’s best positioned for a run. A two-time Best Actor nominee and industry favorite, Domingo will likely be the centerpiece of the Michael awards push for Best Supporting Actor.

Crafts

Unlike some of the most successful musical biopics of the 2000s (see: Ray, Walk the Line, Bohemian Rhapsody), Michael won’t be competitive in Best Film Editing. And there’s obviously no new songs, which was Rocketman’s ticket to an Oscar statuette. But there are some other below-the-line races where the movie could shine. With its faithful recreations of vintage 1960s, ’70s, and ’80s set pieces, Michael has a shot in production design, costume design, hair and makeup, and possibly sound — a category where musical biopics have traditionally found traction.

Of course, this year is also loaded with the kind of big-budget event films that tend to stack craft nominations, including Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey, Denis Villeneuve’s Dune: Part Three, Steven Spielberg’s Disclosure Day, David Fincher’s The Adventures of Cliff Booth, Phil Lord and Christopher Miller’s Project Hail Mary, as well as new entries from Marvel and Star Wars. With competition like that, even the King of Pop could fizzle out.

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