The Tigers (49-54) are on a roll, having won 11 of their last 15 games. That includes a 4-3 nail biter last night against Friday’s opponent, the Royals (43-61). Detroit, even with its current record, still has a shot at competing in the American League. Can these playoff hopefuls pick up another victory tonight against Kansas City?
The Tigers are favorites (-306) over the Royals, with the over/under set at 7.5 runs. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Friday’s showdown between Kansas City and Detroit on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Royals vs. Tigers pick, best bet today
- Royals vs. Tigers under 7.5 runs (-114): The Royals are a mess offensively, especially with Witt Jr. sidelined. That’s bad news against a bonafide ace such as Skubal. However, the Tigers aren’t exactly a juggernaut at the plate either. The best odds on the board in this one involve fading both of these lineups.
Royals vs. Tigers prediction, preview
In this divisional showdown, it’ll be Beck Way making his first career start. During 18 appearances out of the bullpen this season (22.1 IP), he’s notched a 3.22 ERA, 1.52 WHIP and 21 strikeouts (8.5 K/9). If nothing else, the rookie has two things in his favor: a blazing fastball (97.0 MPH) and a terrific 56.7% ground ball rate. Way comes into this one having allowed two earned runs over his previous 9.2 innings of work. It helps that he gets to pitch half of his games at pitcher-friendly Kauffman Stadium.
As previously mentioned, Way excels at inducing ground balls. That’s an interesting contrast with tonight’s opponent; the Tigers rank last in the majors with a 36.8% ground ball rate. Even if this lineup manages to elevate the ball, this isn’t exactly a star-studded lineup. Although Detroit has been hitting better in recent weeks, the team is only 20th in runs per game (4.24). To boot, they are 22nd in batting average (.239) and 19th in slugging percentage (.403) when playing at Comerica Park.
It’s none other than Tarik Skubal taking the mound for the Tigers tonight. In what might be his last time pitching in Detroit, the southpaw is poised for a stellar performance. Despite missing time due to injury, the two-time Cy Young winner is putting together another excellent campaign. Over 82.2 innings of work (14 starts), he’s recorded a 2.83 ERA, 0.93 WHIP and 98 strikeouts (10.7 K/9). Per usual, the veteran’s Savant page is a work of art. He ranks within the 80th percentile in xERA (3.07), chase rate (36.7%), whiff rate (32.1%), strikeout rate (30.5%) and walk rate (3.4%). In short, good luck scoring any runs against arguably the best pitcher on Earth.
Teeing off on Skubal is a challenge for anyone, especially this Royals offense. They’re averaging a league-worst 3.71 runs per game on the road. That’s without factoring in the absence of superstar shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. (back). To boot, slugging outfielder Jac Caglianone has missed two straight contests due to a shoulder issue issue. If the latter can’t suit up tonight, it leaves an already feeble Kansas City lineup even more vulnerable. Skubal owns a minuscule 1.13 ERA over his last four meetings vs. the Royals.
Best Bet: Royals vs. Tigers under 7.5 runs (-114)
Detroit always has a good shot at picking up a win with Skubal on the mound. Still, -300 odds on the moneyline feels a bit too high even for this matchup. Instead, the best way to back the Tigers might be the under. Way, if nothing else, is good enough to avoid getting shelled against a club he’s seen before. On the other side, it’s difficult to see Kansas City scoring more than a couple of runs at most tonight.
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