In today’s playoff games, we have the two NLDS matchups.
In Game 1, we have the Dodgers vs. Phillies, in which the Dodgers have a 1-0 series lead. That game starts at 5:08pm US Central. You can watch on TBS or HBO Max (really?). The Dodgers will start Blake Snell, while the Phillies will counter with Jesús Luzardo.
Luzardo just turned 28 years old and turned in 32 starts and 5.3 fWAR this season. His BABIP/LOB% are a little off league norms, leading to a high ERA of 3.92 compared to his 2.90 FIP. His strikeout/walk/homer rates are stellar.
Snell had a shortened-but-excellent 2025, with only 11 starts but 1.9 fWAR. Snell gave up only two runs in seven innings of work against the Reds on September 30th.
In Game 2, we have the Cubs vs. Brewers at 8:08pm US Central. You can watch on TBS or HBO Max. The Brewers hold a 1-0 lead in the series. The Cubs will start Shota Imanaga, while Aaron Ashby makes the start for the Brewers.
Imanaga has a concerning rate of home runs allowed, but he does not walk many guys. He is an extreme fly ball pitcher with a microscopic 29.2% GB% in the regular season. He has a very low BABIP/LOB%, leading to the opposite as Luzardo (much higher FIP, lower ERA).
Ashby has pitched mostly in relief for his career. He technically made just one start in 2025 on August 27th, but he pitched only two innings. The Brewers will probably use him to get through the Cubs’ top hitters before going to their bullpen. However, Ashby’s two longest outings of the season (3.2 and 3.1 innings) were *both* against the Cubs. They may rely on him for more. Ashby is a tough pitcher to face, with a high strikeout rate, low homer rate, and high ground ball rate. His ERA and FIP are both under 3.
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