Phillies vs Royals Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today

• The Phillies are -155 favorites vs the Royals
• Phillies vs Royals Over / Under today: 9 Runs
• Phillies / Royals TV Channel: RYTV | NSPA

The Philadelphia Phillies (-155) visit Kauffman Stadium to take on the Kansas City Royals (+125) on July 4, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10 pm in Kansas City, MO.

This season, the Phillies are 49-39 against the spread (ATS), while the Royals are 37-48 ATS.

Phillies vs Royals Starting Pitchers Today:

• Phillies starting pitcher: Jesus Luzardo 6-4, 3.89 ERA
• Royals starting pitcher: Michael Wacha 5-5, 3.38 ERA

Phillies vs. Royals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 57.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today:

• Trea Turner has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 4 games (+17.80 Units / 445% ROI)
• J.T. Realmuto has hit the Singles Under in 21 of his last 25 games (+15.85 Units / 49% ROI)
• Bryce Harper has hit the RBIs Over in his last 8 games (+11.40 Units / 142% ROI)
• J.T. Realmuto has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 25 games (+11.15 Units / 44% ROI)
• Trea Turner has hit the Runs Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+8.50 Units / 49% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Royals Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Carter Jensen has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 20 games (+16.95 Units / 43% ROI)
• Nick Loftin has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 10 games (+13.50 Units / 135% ROI)
• Carter Jensen has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 19 of his last 25 games (+12.85 Units / 44% ROI)
• Nick Loftin has hit the Singles Under in 17 of his last 20 games at home (+12.60 Units / 44% ROI)
• Lane Thomas has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 20 games at home (+10.05 Units / 29% ROI)

Phillies Best Bets Today:

• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 18 of their last 25 away games (+10.40 Units / 38% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 20 of their last 30 away games (+10.30 Units / 28% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 31 of their last 50 away games (+9.75 Units / 16% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Over in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.85 Units / 32% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 16 of their last 30 games (+4.45 Units / 9% ROI)

Royals Best Bets Today:

• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 28 of their last 45 games (+8.60 Units / 16% ROI)
• The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 19 of their last 30 games (+6.65 Units / 19% ROI)
• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 19 games (+6.35 Units / 30% ROI)
• The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 6 of their last 14 games (+0.10 Units / 1% ROI)

Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Phillies are 33-54 against the Run Line (-25.2 Units / -24.6% ROI).

• 49-39 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.3 Units / 0.23% ROI
• 38-46 when betting on the total runs Over for -12.5 Units / -12.88% ROI
• 46-38 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.55 Units / 4.71% ROI

Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Royals are 37-48 against the Run Line (-23.6 Units / -19.17% ROI).

• 35-53 when betting on the Moneyline for -21.2 Units / -21.31% ROI
• 43-44 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.15 Units / -5.32% ROI
• 44-43 when betting on the total runs Under for -3 Units / -3.1% ROI

Royals vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today

Royals vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Royals vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Royals

The Phillies are 9-0 (1.000) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .783.

The Phillies are 11-34 (.244) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .139.

The Phillies are 5-36 (.122) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .055.

The Phillies are 35-1 (.972) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .861.

Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies

The Royals are just 27-8 (.771) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .900.

The Royals are just 27-6 (.818) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .945.

The Royals are just 32-43 (.427) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .536.

The Royals are just 3-38 (.073) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .139.

Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends

Phillies hitters have an OBP of just .281 (1,574 PA’s) on the road this season — lowest in MLB.

The Phillies are batting .255 with two outs this season — 2nd best in MLB.

The Phillies are batting just .219 on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

Phillies hitters have an OBP of just .225 (1,790 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB.

Royals Hitting Stats & Trends

Royals hitters are slugging just .222 with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB.

The Royals have a winning percentage of just 40% this season — lowest in MLB.

Royals hitters are slugging just .357 on the road this season — lowest in MLB.

Royals hitters are slugging just .364 with runners on base this season — lowest in MLB.

Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends

Phillies pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.5 MPH (2,163 batted balls) this season — best in MLB.

The Phillies pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.5 MPH this season (2,163 balls in play) — best in MLB

Phillies pitchers have walked 7% of batters this season — 3rd best in MLB.

Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes this season — 2nd best in MLB.

Royals Pitching Stats & Trends

Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% this season — 4th lowest in MLB.

Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 18% in close and late situations this season — lowest in MLB.

Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes this season — 5th lowest in MLB.

Royals pitchers have an ERA of 4.87 (776.2 IP) this season — 3rd highest in MLB.

More MLB Reading:

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