Royals first-half grade cards | Royals Review

Following back-to-back winning seasons, the Royals had designs on contending this year. Much of the season hinged on the development of young hitters Carter Jensen and Jac Caglianone, and those two seem to be coming around as key parts of the lineup. Bobby Witt Jr. continues to play at an MVP level, and Michael Wacha was an All-Star. With those developments, you would think the Royals would be right in the mix.

Instead, it has been a disaster of a season. The Royals enter the second half tied for the worst record in baseball. Injuries have taken their toll this summer, but the losing began well before the roster was decimated. The organization’s lack of depth has been exposed, and the team will have a lot of work to do before next spring to get back on track.

Failing students have to show their report cards to their parents, so let’s hand out Royals first-half report cards for fans to see.

The offense has actually improved from last year, with the team averaging 4.23 runs per game, a 5 percent increase over 2025. The development of young hitters like Caglianone and Jensen has fueled the improvement, although the team still ranks 21st in baseball in runs scored. The team lost the disappointing Jonathan India to injury early on, but the struggles of Salvador Perez and Vinnie Pasquantino have had the biggest impact.

Bobby is on track to test whether a player on a last place team can win MVP. He leads the league in fWAR (4.8) and steals (30), ranks fourth in hits (103), third in doubles (22), and leads all of baseball defensively in Outs Above Average (+18). He has increased his walk rate and cut down on his strikeout rate. He is everything you want in a ballplayer, and the Royals are absolutely wasting one of his prime seasons.

A hot June propelled Cags into the Home Run Derby and gave Royals fans some hope for the future. He has cut down on his groundball rate, and his Baseball Savant page is covered in red, particularly in hard-hit rate and exit velocity. He still chases a bit, and his defense is a work in progress (although better than I think some expected), but Jac is starting to look like the 30+ home run threat the Royals saw when they drafted him.

Collins was brought in to get on base, and he is second behind only Witt on the team in on-base percentage at .345. He’s been a bit rough defensively in left field, but he has pretty much done what the Royals asked him to do, although he may be a bit stretched too thin in such a prominent role.

His numbers are down from last year’s breakout performance, and his baserunning leaves something to be desired at times. But his OPS is still around league average and his defense has been outstanding at third. You’d like his numbers to be better after he signed a long-term deal last offseason, but his numbers have been pretty good this year.

Isbel’s offensive numbers are substantially similar to his stats the last two seasons. He is what he is – a terrific defender with little power who should hit ninth in your lineup. He’s out the last month with plantar fasciitis, something that could hamper him the rest of the season.

Jensen was a bit of a dark horse Rookie of the Year pick before the year, and while he hasn’t lived up to that, he has been solid enough to consider him a fixture for the next few years. The power has been as-advertised, and he shows a patient approach the plate. His immaturity showed earlier this year when he overslept for a game, and his defense has been a mixed bag, but Jensen has put together a solid rookie performance.

The former first-round pick may be escaping his status as a AAA player by posting strong walk and strikeout rates at the big league level and becoming an offensive asset. His defense at third has been brutal, but perhaps he could improve with more playing time at second.

Massey struggled last year, but has rebounded this year to put up very similar numbers to what he did in 2024. He’s got some pop for a second baseman and plays good defense, but struggles to get on base at a consistent clip. His salary will go up under arbitration next year, so this is a big year for him to prove he is worth keeping.

Thomas was a bit of a whipping boy for Royals fans to begin the year, but overall his numbers are…fine? His power is down a bit, but he’s on pace to post his best on-base percentage since 2021, and he’s been most effective against left-handers. He has stayed healthy and has done what was expected of him, the question is whether the Royals needed more from an acquisition.

What a weird season for Tolbert. He was hitting .200/.275/.200 through 41 plate appearances, then went 12-for-13 with two home runs over three games, and suddenly he has the highest OPS on the team. He’s a speedy bench player, but with this being a lost season, perhaps the Royals should explore whether he’s worth having an expanded role.

Marte seems like a good clubhouse guy, and you could do worse with your bench options, but it is clear the 37-year-old veteran is at the end of the line.

Vinnie hit a career-high 32 home runs last year, and with the fences moving in this year, there were thoughts of a huge power season. He has hit two home runs at the K this year. He battled lower back tightness, then missed nearly a month with a hamate bone injury. His saving grace is that his walk rate has spiked to a career-high 11 percent, but otherwise he has been a dud at the plate.

Salvy has held off Father Time for years, but age seems to have caught up with him this season. Nearly every Baseball Savant metric is trending in the wrong direction. He ranks as the second-worst qualified hitter in baseball with a 58 wRC+, and his -1.5 fWAR is the lowest among all position players. He’s hitting better in July, but he’ll need a strong second half to avoid entering the final year of his contract in 2027 as an albatross.

Pitching was expected to be the strength of this club entering the season, but it has largely been a disaster. The Royals have allowed the fourth-most runs per game in baseball. They have surrendered double-digit runs in ten games, including a 22-1 beatdown at the hands of the White Sox. They entered the season with a lot of supposed pitching depth, but injuries to Carlos Estévez, Kris Bubic, and Cole Ragans have exposed them.

Wacha may be one of the best free agent signings in Royals history. He has been a workhorse, leading the league in innings pitched, and he gives the Royals a chance to win each time out with 12 Quality Starts. He has some of the worst run support in baseball, which is the only reason why he has a losing record.

Lynch has been used in more high-leverage roles this year and has met the challenge, improving his strikeout and walk rates. He has become the most trusted arm in the bullpen.

Kolek was a model of consistency until one awful nine-run start against the Cardinals. He throws strikes and gets ground balls and is a perfectly acceptable back-of-the-rotation starter.

Schreiber has been getting outs despite a drop in strikeout rate, but a 4.94 FIP suggests a second-half regression. The Royals should probably be aggressive looking to move him at the deadline for anyone that needs bullpen help.

Bubic was looking pretty solid until he gave up five runs in his last start, then hit the Injured List with a shoulder injury. He suffered a setback in his rehab and it is looking increasingly unlikely he will be healthy enough to be moved at the trade deadline.

It has been a bit of an up-and-down season for Cameron. The knock on Cameron last year was that he didn’t miss enough bats. He has significantly improved his strikeout numbers this year, and while his 4.89 ERA ain’t great, his 4.03 FIP will play.

Lugo hit a wall last year that resulted in a terrible second half and he may be hitting a similar wall this year. He had a 3.69 ERA through his first 15 starts, but has given up 21 runs in 19.1 innings over his last four outings.

Way was called up out of desperation and has been fine, although it has come in low-leverage situations and his FIP is 5.39.

I like Avila’s stuff and I think he has a bright future, most likely in the bullpen. The Royals were not counting on him being fourth on the team in innings pitched, but here we are. He needs to throw more strikes to have success in the big leagues, but he has shown some glimpses of promise.

Lange was looking like a decent reclamation project until he gave up ten runs over his last four appearances. His walk rate is still awfully high, and he has struggled to strike hitters out the last few weeks.

Before the season, Black was put in a “break glass in case of emergency” box, and it turns out the Royals have needed him 12 times. He has done fine pitching mostly in losses, but he probably shouldn’t be someone the Royals count on in the second half.

Mears seemed like a shrewd pickup for the bullpen when the Royals got him from Milwaukee, but he struggled with walks and has been out over a month with a shoulder injury.

Cruz is a hard thrower who has trouble throwing strikes at times. His cutter has been a lot better than his straight fastball, and I still feel like he could be a really good reliever with some tweaks.

The very definition of “replacement level player.”

Erceg’s drop in strikeout rate was a red flag last year, and the chickens have come home to roost this season. He has the third-worst strikeout-to-walk rate among relievers. The Royals really needed him to step up after the injury to Estévez but his six blown saves are the most in baseball.

It has been a frustrating two seasons for Ragans, who was an All-Star in 2024. He made eight starts, showed some flashes of brilliance with high whiff rates, but went down in early May with an elbow injury that required surgery. We probably won’t see him again until mid-2027.

Strahm was one of the best relievers in baseball last year, and it seemed like a coup when the Royals acquired him last winter. Instead he has been a disaster for the Royals with the second-worst home run rate in baseball. Worse yet, Jonathan Bowlan, who the Royals traded away to acquire Strahm, has been very good for the Phillies.