Two struggling clubs square off tonight in the evening window of Monday’s MLB schedule. The San Francisco Giants and Kansas City Royals are both in somewhat similar predicaments — both offenses are respectable in terms of OPS but lack significant run creation, and with pitching staffs that need work on each side, it’s tough to find support from the arms as well. However, this matchup could very well be a fun one as this three-game series gets going at 7:40 p.m. ET at Kauffman Stadium.
Let’s dive in with a preview, prediction and pick for tonight’s Giants vs. Royals game, courtesy of odds and lines on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Giants vs. Royals prediction, preview
For starters, let’s just set some expectations. These two clubs boast a combined record of 82-117, so clearly much has gone wrong in both markets this season. The Giants enter this contest fourth in the NL West at 42-57 with a run differential of -61; as for the Royals, they’re dead last in the AL Central with a 40-60 mark and a -99 run differential that slots in as the second-worst in baseball.
For San Francisco, young RHP Trevor McDonald takes the mound. The 25-year-old has a 3-7 record across his 13 starts this year, amassing a 5.02 ERA with a 1.30 WHIP. His 54 strikeouts in 66.1 IP leave him with a low 18.6% K%, but he makes up for it somewhat with a 92nd-percentile grade in barrel rate and a 95th-percentile mark in ground-ball rate. He’s backed by a bullpen that falls 22nd in ERA at 4.43 with a 1.40 WHIP and an 8.8% K-BB%. Notably, those relievers are just 27th in K% at 19.8%.
For Kansas City, veteran RHP Michael Wacha draws the start. He’s gone 5-7 over his 19 appearances this year but does bring respectable numbers into this outing. Wacha’s ERA is 3.77 and he has a 1.19 WHIP to complement it. Much like his opponent, he has a low K% at 19.7% thanks to 96 punchouts across 119.1 IP, but he has a respectable 7.0% BB% while limiting barrels at an above average rate. However, the Royals’ are 29th in ERA at a paltry 5.42, while a 1.57 WHIP and 7.4% K-BB% are the worst marks among all MLB clubs.
With the poor relief staffs and the elevated ERA from McDonald, there’s certainly room for offense in this matchup. The even better news for that outlook is that both batting orders are respectable, if nothing else. The Giants rank 14th in overall team OPS this season at .727, and against right-handed pitching, the slash line increases to .256/.311/.428 for a .738 cumulative mark. The club has 89 of its 111 home runs in the split with an elevated .172 ISO that ranks seventh in the sport, too. Meanwhile, the Royals maintain a .715 overall OPS that falls 18th. Against right-handers, they have a slash line of .245/.317/.401 for a .718 OPS and a .156 ISO, also hitting 73 of their 101 homers in such matchups.
Giants vs. Royals pick, best bet
On DraftKings Sportsbook, the Royals are slight favorites to win outright at -118 odds on the Moneyline, while the Giants aren’t far behind at -102 odds. The run total is set at 10 combined trips across home plate.
This matchup is mostly built for scoring based on both bullpens. If there’s one line I’m eyeing in particular, it’s the over on 4.5 total runs for San Francisco. The club produces just 4.12 runs per game this season, but that average is dragged down by one of the least hitter-friendly home ballparks in baseball. On the road, the Giants score 4.38 runs per night. Plus, Kauffman Stadium grades out as the 11th-friendliest park for offense, per Statcast’s Park Factors Leaderboard. That’s just an additional bonus. Sure, Wacha may keep the output down through the early stages, but he’s given up at least one home run in 11 of his 19 starts with 14 dingers in total conceded. The Kansas City bullpen behind him is the MLB’s worst by several measures, but a 1.51 HR/9 mark is also dead last among all MLB clubs while ranking 28th in BB/9, too.
By contrast, the Giants are actually seventh in batting average with RISP at .264 and are sixth in slugging percentage on the year at .418. They’re not the best club, but they are built for nights like tonight and should go over 4.5 runs on this team total.
Best bet: SF Giants over 4.5 runs (-140)
‘ The preceding article may include information circulated by third parties ’
‘ Some details of this article were extracted from the following source dknetwork.draftkings.com ’
