One of the Royals’ most productive hitters lately has been Isaac Collins, who was acquired this offseason in the Angel Zerpa trade with Milwaukee (along with reliever Nick Mears).
For the season, Collins is hitting .246 with a .324 wOBA and 104 wRC+ in 343 plate appearances with the Royals. After a slow start, the 29-year-old outfielder has posted wRC+ marks of 98 in June and 162 in July after marks of 85 in March/April and 91 in May. While he hasn’t been a huge source of power, he’s shown a strong ability to generate walks and limit strikeouts, as evidenced by his 0.51 BB/K ratio for the year.
The former Creighton product has been primarily locked in since Memorial Day, as Joel Penfield of KC Sports Network noted on Twitter.
The nice thing about Collins is that the Royals have him under control for a good while after this season. He isn’t arbitration eligible until 2028, and he doesn’t become a free agent until 2031. Thus, Collins could be a foundational piece that the Royals can depend on going forward, even if Kansas City decides to upgrade their outfield even further this offseason via trade or free agency.
That said, the Royals are 43-62. Bobby Witt Jr. just went on the IL due to a lower-back injury, and Maikel Garcia is still out for an indeterminate amount of time. Thus, the Royals really aren’t playing for anything beyond pride and player development, and at nearly 30 years old, one has to wonder if Collins truly is a long-term piece for Kansas City.
Lane Thomas and Starling Marte seem to be for-sure trade chips for Kansas City at the Trade Deadline. It makes sense since they are both on one-year deals and likely won’t be part of the Royals’ plans in 2027 or beyond. That said, what about Collins, who could perhaps get a better trade package than Thomas or Marte due to his long-term flexibility?
Let’s break down his trade candidacy, some possible fits, and whether the Royals should trade Collins by the August 3rd Deadline.
Collins Doesn’t Chase, But Has Questionable Batted-Ball Metrics (And Baserunning and Defense)
The issue with Collins is that he has some obvious strengths as a hitter, but some glaring concerns that limit his ceiling. Those are evident in his Statcast percentiles summary via TJ Stats.
On a positive note? Collins ranks well in O-Swing% (96th percentile), BB% (76th percentile), Z-Contact% (66th percentile), bat speed (66th percentile), and whiff% (62nd percentile). However, his barrel rate ranks in the 29th percentile, and his LA Sweet-Spot% and average EV rank in the 23rd percentile. Thus, it’s not a surprise that his wOBA (35th percentile) outpaces his xwOBA (29th percentile), which is a sign that regression could be coming for Collins, especially after a strong July.
It would be one thing if Collins were a patient hitter. His walk and whiff rates seem to suggest that. That said, he’s actually quite free-swinging. That’s illustrated in his 39.9% Swing%, which ranks in the bottom fifth percentile. That makes Collins prone to more strikeouts, and thus, a stunting of his ultimate ceiling.
Hence, while Collins has been more-than-serviceable this year, Kansas City may be tempted to add a free-agent outfielder this offseason. Baltimore’s Taylor Ward is not hitting for a ton of power this year, but he’s dealt with lingering injuries, and if healthy, he could be a 20+ HR candidate.
The Royals have been tied to Ward in the past when he was a member of the Angels. So Picollo may be aggressive and go after him now that he’s a free agent.
Another option could be Seiya Suzuki, who’s having another banner year (17 home runs; .827 OPS), but will be a free agent, and the Cubs may not want to give him a long-term deal.
The Royals have Jac Caglianone in right field and Kyle Isbel in center field. Those players seem less expendable than Collins, especially with Cags (1.4 fWAR) and Isbel (0.4 fWAR) combining for nearly two fWAR this year. The former Brewers outfielder only has a 0.5 fWAR, despite an above-average wRC+. The primary reason for that is his lackluster defense and baserunning.
According to Fangraphs, Collins has been -2.4 BsR (baserunning runs) below average and has been caught five times on stolen base attempts in 11 tries. On the defensive end, he has a -3 OAA and FRV. His defense has been better after a sluggish start, but he’s still been below-average overall.
Isbel, on the other hand, has been a solid defensive player and baserunner in his Royals career. Cags’ range has been questionable, but his arm strength makes him an intriguing right fielder who can limit runs on the basepaths. Collins doesn’t share any of those qualities, and while his bat is good, it’s not enough to merit playing time over a Ward or Suzuki in 2027.
What Teams Could Be Fits for Collins?
An interesting fit for Collins could be the Boston Red Sox, who seem to value former Brewers. They acquired Caleb Durbin this offseason, and he’s overcome a slow start, producing a 90 wRC+ and 1.5 fWAR. Thus, Boston may want Collins, who can play both corners and draw walks.
The Red Sox may be tempted to trade Jarren Duran to the Royals, a player that the Royals have coveted in the past. Duran has a 58 wRC+, has a -0.1 fWAR, and has seemed to rub the Boston media the wrong way, as evidenced by his latest incident with Tyler Milliken, who covers the Red Sox for the Section 10 podcast.
data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAPABAP///wAAACH5BAEKAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAICRAEAOw==
Duran could get a fresh start, and he doesn’t become a free agent until 2029. Thus, Boston and Kansas City would be trading similar assets.
For the Red Sox, they get a more versatile outfielder in Collins who doesn’t carry the same number of headaches as Duran. As for the Royals, they get a player with some All-Star upside who may play better in a smaller market and with less “social media noise”.
The results haven’t been good for Duran this year. However, the bat speed, exit velocity, and barrel rates illustrate that he could see a bounce-back, especially if he can take advantage of Kauffman’s new hitting dimensions.
Another option could be the Phillies, who have struggled to get productive outfield play beyond All-Star Brandon Marsh. Beyond Marsh (115 wRC+), only former White Sox outfielder Derek Hill has a wRC+ over 100 (106). That said, he has only 62 plate appearances, and his K% is 43.5%. Safe to say, he’s going to fall back to earth soon, so they need to have another outfielder in the mix if they want to make a run in the postseason.
Collins could fit in right field for the Phillies, and the Royals could maybe get a package that could include one of the Phillies’ top-five prospects. That includes Andrew Painter, Aidan Miller, Aroon Escobar, and Gage Wood. Painter, the Phillies’ No. 1 prospect, has struggled in his brief MLB tenure (7.06 ERA in 65 IP), but the stuff is solid, and he could thrive with less pressure in Kansas City.
Even though the Royals would lose Collins, they would get an arm with top-of-the-rotation upside. That would make trading Michael Wacha or Seth Lugo a lot easier at the Trade Deadline or in the offseason.
While that seems like a steep price to pay from the Phillies’ perspective, Phillies president Dave Dombrowski has proven, not just in Philly, but in Boston and Detroit as well, to be willing to trade prospects for proven veterans at the Deadline.
What Will the Royals Do?
The Royals probably believe that they have a chance to rebound and be competitive again in 2027. Thus, I think they are looking at preserving a core at the Deadline that can help get them back to 2024 and 2025 levels, when they won 86 and 82 games, respectively. That’s why I see the Royals trading Wacha or Lugo, but not both. The Royals can’t go into 2027 with Luinder Avila as their Opening Day starter and expect to make the postseason.
However, while Collins has been decent and has years of team control, I think Picollo should deal Collins if they get the opportunity, with Boston and Philadelphia as the primary targets.
With the Red Sox, the Royals could get a proven MLB vet with team control that has All-Star upside and could be due for a bounce-back in new surroundings. It would be a similar situation to Mike Yastrzemski last year, but in this case, the Royals would have Duran for two more seasons (unlike Yaz, who became a free agent after 2025).
With the Phillies, Kansas City could get a flawed but talented pitcher who makes more sense on a developing Royals team than a Phillies team that is flush with veteran starting pitching. Painter could be Cole Ragans 2.0, but with a better health track record. Wood could also be a nice piece if the Phillies aren’t willing to part with Painter, especially with Wood pitching well in Double-A Reading.
The Royals keeping Collins would be fine, especially since he’s done enough to prove that he can be counted on in the lineup for not just 2027, but perhaps 2028 and beyond.
That said, Kansas City needs to look at trade scenarios for all their players, and if they get good value on Collins, they need to pounce quickly. The last thing they want is to hold onto a player like Collins too long, and he not only has tanked his trade value, but they’re just designating him for assignment and releasing him in 2028 or 2029.
View our top trade candidates list, up to nearly 70 names and updated regularly!
‘ The preceding article may include information circulated by third parties ’
‘ Some details of this article were extracted from the following source royalskeep.com ’
