PEORIA, Ill. (WMBD) — The box office is gearing up for a massive weekend and all signs point to one clear winner.
Leading the way is “The Super Mario Galaxy Movie,” which is projected to debut between $130 and $145 million, according to Box Office Pro. If those numbers hold, it would mark the first $100 million opening of the year and one of the biggest debuts of 2026 so far.
Holding strong in the number two spot is “Project Hail Mary,” the Ryan Gosling-led sci-fi hit that continues to show impressive staying power. The film is expected to bring in between $28 and $35 million in its third weekend, proving it still has plenty of momentum with audiences.
Rounding out the top three is “The Drama” from A24, starring Zendaya and Robert Pattinson. The film is projected to open between $10 and $15 million, offering a counter-programming option for moviegoers looking for something different from the big-budget blockbusters.
Still, this weekend clearly belongs to Mario. The only real question is just how big the opening will be.
Jack’s Review: The Super Mario Galaxy Movie
I checked out “The Super Mario Galaxy Movie” on opening night, and going in, expectations were high following the massive success of its predecessor.
Visually, the movie delivers. The space setting, vibrant colors, and imaginative planets are all heavily inspired by the game, creating a world that is exciting and fun to look at. It is big, bright, and visually engaging from start to finish.
However, where the film struggles is its story.
For a movie based on Super Mario Galaxy, it never quite reaches the emotional or narrative heights you might expect. It feels like all the right pieces are there, but the film never fully commits to what made the game so special. There is some heart, but it does not hit as hard as it should.
By the third act, the pacing begins to slow down, and the story starts to drag.
That said, younger audiences will likely have a great time. The movie is colorful, fast-paced, and entertaining, which may be more than enough for its core audience.
But for viewers hoping for a deeper story or a stronger emotional payoff, this one may fall short.
In the end, it is a visual spectacle, just not a fully realized adventure.
Rating: 3 out of 10
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