The Bobby Witt Jr. contract extension, two years later

It was immediately obvious even in Bobby Witt Jr.’s rookie season that he had immense talent. The tools were all there: he was fast, he hit the ball hard, he played exceptional defense, and he seemed by all accounts a hard worker and impeccable clubhouse presence.

Sure enough, Bob emerged from a sort of developmental cocoon in July 2023 to ascend to his final form, a form which he has maintained to this day. Per Fangraphs’ version of Wins Above Replacement, Witt has been the second-most valuable player in baseball since then. And just about two years ago, the Royals signed Witt to a gigantic contract extension.

So, how’s that extension going?

In one word: great. The extension is going great. In 2024, Witt led the Royals to the playoffs for the first time in nine years and was voted MVP runner-up to Aaron Judge. Last year, Witt came in fourth in MVP voting and won the Platinum Glove award.

In a few more words: well, that’s why I’m writing this, right?

To understand Witt’s extension and its implications, it is important to understand how the deal functions in the first place. In short, there are three parts to the extension. The first part is guaranteed, where Witt will make $148.7 million through 2030. The second part is a series of player options at $35 million each, which Witt can trigger or decline each year. If he selects them all, the contract will reach $288.7 million through 2034. Finally, the Royals have a $89 million club option for 2035 through 2037, which can bring the contract up to $377 million.

Kansas City inked Witt to the deal after his 2023 season, a season in which he put up 5.9 WAR. Since then, Witt has been even better, with last year’s 8.0 WAR season somehow his least productive in the pair since he signed that contract.

Witt has been so good, in fact, that the first part of his extension looks like a steal. Just look at Juan Soto, just about the only other mid-20s baseball player with comparable production to Witt. Soto signed a 15-year, $765 million contract, at an average annual value of $51 million. To secure the same kind of player for $16 million less per year at his most expensive? Whew.

As a result, the chances that Witt picks up any player option year are getting slimmer by the day. Witt will reach free agency for his age-31 season, and those options are only at $35 million apiece. Considering that Aaron Judge signed a nine-year contract at $40 million in average annual value for his age-31 season, and that he did so over three years ago, Witt will almost certainly be able to get a significantly larger contract in free agency.

So the Royals really shouldn’t be thinking of Witt as being locked up until 2037, because the reality is that it is going to be extremely difficult to retain him past 2030. The good news is twofold: that Kansas City will be getting Witt’s best years, and that they still have him for another five seasons.

The bad news, such as it is, is also twofold: that there is immense pressure to win with Witt over the next few years, and that Witt has been so good as to play himself out of Kansas City’s price point when the time comes. That last part, at least, is a little bit of “my steak is too juicy, my lobster too buttery.” That’s a good problem to have, and you’ll take that conundrum every time if it means watching a Hall of Fame level talent play for your team for a decade.