Garion Thorne gives you a preview, prediction and pick for tonight’s game between the Toronto Blue Jays and the Kansas City Royals.
Look, I’m not trying to get dramatic here, but it would probably be wise for the Blue Jays to win tonight. Toronto comes into Friday night with a three-game lead in the AL East and the tie-breaker over the second place Yankees. FanGraphs currently gives the squad a 90.5% chance taking the division crown. Still, the Jays have scored a single run over their last two contests — both losses in Tampa. The standings are probably closer than they have to be!
Can Toronto get things back on track in Kansas City? Let’s preview this important September matchup with the help of some of those odds and lines on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
Blue Jays vs. Royals prediction, preview
Max Scherzer will make what will likely be his penultimate regular season start on Friday night in Kansas City. It’s been a middling campaign for the 41-year-old. Limited to just 79.1 innings due to a lingering thumb issue in the year’s first-half, Scherzer has been plagued by the home run ball when available. To wit, Scherzer has conceded 1.82 opponent long balls per nine in 2025 and a fourth percentile opponent barrel rate (12.1%). That’s how you end up with a 4.79 FIP and only an outside shot at making a postseason start despite a first-ballot Hall of Fame track record.
Still, if there any place to take the mound as an extreme fly ball pitcher, it’s Kauffman Stadium, which has been the fifth-hardest venue to hit a home run at in 2025, per Baseball Savant’s Park Factors. It also doesn’t hurt that the Royals don’t really produce all that much power, currently sitting in the lower-third of MLB in both home runs (148) and ISO (.148). Things haven’t been much better in September, either. Though Kansas City has actually struck out less often than any AL club in the month (17.6%), the team is slashing a paltry .223/.291/.373 with an 82 wRC+. Scherzer should be able to take advantage.
On the other side of this veteran pitching matchup, you’ll find Michael Lorenzen. In an unusual twist, tonight will already be Lorenzen’s second appearance of the week, as 33-year-old threw a scoreless inning of relief in Wednesday’s win over the Mariners. That’s been the most positive outing for Lorenzen in some time, as the RHP is in possession of a ghastly 6.93 ERA dating back to August 21. It’s a span where opposing LHBs have crushed Lorenzen to the tune of a .426 average and a .477 wOBA. That means the Blue Jays should be expecting nice games from the likes of Nathan Lukes, Addison Barger and Daulton Varsho.
Blue Jays vs. Royals pick, best bet
Best Bet: Blue Jays ML (-142)
Scherzer is pitching on an extra day’s rest and Toronto needs this win to secure its standing in the division.
Strong Lean: Addison Barger 1+ Home Run (+528)
Lorenzen has struggled with LHBs and Barger is in possession of a 91st percentile hard hit rate (51.2%).
‘ The preceding article may include information circulated by third parties ’
‘ Some details of this article were extracted from the following source dknetwork.draftkings.com ’
