Twins 5, Royals 1: Bailey Ober Bounces Back, But Byron Buxton Exits with Injury – Twins

Box Score:
Starting Pitcher: Bailey Ober: 5 1/3 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 6 K (85 Pitches, 54 Strikes, 63.5%)
Home Runs: Byron Buxton (30), Kody Clemens (16)
Top 3 WPA: Ober (.206), Clemens (.144), Cole Sands (.097)
Win Probability Chart (Via FanGraphs):

It’s a race to the bottom now for the Minnesota Twins. After a nice series win against the Padres, they got swept at home against the White Sox and lost the first two in Kansas City against the Royals. The way things stand, they have the second-best odds for the first pick in next year’s draft—but hey, even if they got it, the Pohalds would probably try to sell it.

Sunday’s tilt featured Bailey Ober against Michael Lorenzen as the starting pitchers. Ober has been a tough story this year. His velocity has been down, at least partially due to a hip issue that appears to still be lingering, and he’s allowed a truckload of home runs as a result. Lots of folks want him shut down for the year, but as a second-year arbitration guy, Ober surely has no designs on allowing that to happen.

He showed it Sunday. While his velocity was down again (he exceeded 90 MPH just thrice), his changeup was the sharpest I’ve seen it in months. He played that off of his sweeper, which also played up a tick, and the result was tons of weak contact and even some swings and misses. The first inning featured two groundouts and a pop-up. Then, he struck out four of the next six hitters. His first baserunner reached in the fourth, in the form of a leadoff double from Mike Yaztrzemski. He even worked around that, with Matt Wallner making a nice catch in foul ground to retire Maikel García; a soft liner from Vinnie Pasquantino; and a strikeout of Salvador Perez on a sweeper to escape with no damage.

The Twins played from out front, as Byron Buxton lifted off against a Lorenzen fastball at the top of the zone to make the game 1-0 after one batter.

Lorenzen did look pretty sharp, and generally kept the ball under the bats of Twins hitters with his slider, sinker and changeup. He allowed a softly hit Royce Lewis double in the second, but Edouard Julien lined into a tough-luck double play to end the frame.

After a quiet third inning, the Twins mounted a rally in the fourth. Austin Martin began the inning with a single, and Wallner produced a single of his own. That brought up Luke Keaschall in a spot to do damage, but the rookie second baseman grounded in a 5-3 double play to temporarily squelch the rally. Then, blessedly, Lorenzen left a changeup in the middle of the zone to Kody Clemens, who demolished it 451 feet to dead center field.

Ober got the first two outs in the fifth quickly, before allowing a double to Nick Loftin. Kyle Isbel would then walk, which brought up waiver claim catcher Luke Maile. He battled Ober to a 2-2 count before swinging through an 88-MPH fastball to end the inning.

The Royals would pay the next frame. Keaschall punched a one-out single to end Lorenzen’s day, and after a steal of second, Lewis beat out an infield single. He appeared to get caught off of first base, but Keaschall darted home as Lewis got in a rundown and the throw home was late, allowing a fourth run to score while Julien stood at home plate. It was probably a designed play, and if so, Lewis and Keaschall executed brilliantly.

Kansas City would chase Ober in the sixth. García hit a one-out double, and Pasquantino poked a single the other way to score the Royals’ first run. Cole Sands came on to face Perez, and retired him on an easy ground ball double play. I wonder if Kansas City fans care that Perez doesn’t run out ground balls, or is he just so slow that it just looks like he doesn’t run them out?

The Twins would add on in the seventh on a single, two walks and a hit by pitch against Daniel Lynch IV. Sands pitched a scoreless bottom half of the inning, including yet another double play—this time, a 5-4-3, including a great scoop at first by Clemens. 

The Royals threatened in the eighth against Kody Funderburk, even after leadoff hitter Isbel (who had reached on a hit by pitch) was successfully back-picked by Jhonny Pereda. Maile and Yaztrzemski singled, and García drew a walk after fouling a ball directly off his toe earlier in the at-bat. But Funderburk struck out Pasquantino, and Justin Topa came on to retire Perez on a grounder.

Topa got the first two outs of the ninth before exiting due to what appeared to be a leg injury. Génesis Cabrera came on and recorded the save.

Stray Observations:

-Buxton left the game after being hit by a Lorenzen fastball on his left knee. He initially stayed in the game both to run and play center field in the bottom half of the inning, but exited in the bottom of the sixth in favor of James Outman. Buxton’s career is truly a Greek tragedy: getting healthy and playing 100 games two years in a row only to have the team collapse around him, and now hitting his 30th home run only to exit with injury in the very same game.

-I know some folks think because Wallner can consistently post decent OPS numbers he is infinitely undervalued, but it’s 2025, not 2005, and I don’t think there is anyone on the Twins who puts up less of a fight when the pitcher executes his plan. With him struggling lately, I also would love to see what a certain cherry-picking media member has to say if Larnach finishes with a higher OPS.

-Jhonny Pereda ain’t much, but he has two pick-offs in two starts this year, making a great scoop and throwing out Isbel at first in the eighth.

-James Outman looks cooked.

What’s Next: Simeon Woods Richardson (5-4, 4.53 ERA) takes the hill Monday, as the Twins head to Anaheim to take on Caden Dana and the Angels. Woods Richardson was pretty good his last time out, and will be making his third start since returning from dealing with an intestinal parasite (a literal one, not the figurative one you’ve been fighting since around the time this team’s 13-game winning streak ended). The Angels are four games “behind” the Twins in the race to the bottom of the standings.

Postgame Interviews:

Coming soon

Bullpen Usage Chart: