Thursday is a major travel day in MLB, as only 18 teams are in action, with three games set to have a first pitch before 4 p.m. EST.
The Tampa Bay Rays and Kansas City Royals kick things off with their series finale at 12:10 p.m. EST, and I’m eyeing a side in that matchup with Seth Lugo taking the mound for KC.
In the National League, there are a couple of games to consider betting on, including the series opener between the Philadelphia Phillies and Washington Nationals. Phillies star Cristopher Sanchez is on the mound in that game, and he’s a player to target in the prop market against one of the best offenses in MLB.
Let’s dive right into the odds and analysis behind today’s MLB best bets before every team is back in action on Friday for their weekend matchups.
MLB Best Bets for Thursday, June 25
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
- Tampa Bay Rays Moneyline (-148) vs. Kansas City Royals
- Chicago Cubs-New York Mets OVER 8.5 (-110)
- Cristopher Sanchez UNDER 20.5 Outs Recorded (-123)
Tampa Bay Rays Moneyline (-148) vs. Kansas City Royals
The Rays need a win to split their four-game set with the Royals, and they’re rolling with a bullpen game on Thursday afternoon.
While Tampa Bay’s ‘pen (4.59 ERA) has struggled a bit in the 2026 season, I still think the Rays are deserving favorites at home against this Royals team with Seth Lugo on the mound.
Kansas City is 7-8 in Lugo’s starts this season and he has a 3.69 ERA. However, the right-hander’s advanced numbers are much shakier than that. Lugo has an expected ERA of 5.20 (which ranks in the 15th percentile) and he ranks in the 11th percentile in expected BAA, fourth percentile in whiff percentage and the 19th percentile in barrel percentage.
Tampa Bay has been pretty dominant at home (27-12) so far this season while the Royals are 10 games under .500 on the road and currently in last place in the AL Central. Even though Kansas City took the first two games of this series, I think Tampa Bay is a no-brainer bet on Thursday afternoon.
Chicago Cubs-New York Mets OVER 8.5 (-110)
The New York Mets and Chicago Cubs have combined for 15, 13 and 15 runs in the first three games of their series, so I’m going to take the OVER in Game 4 on Thursday night.
Chicago has lefty Matthew Boyd on the mound for just the sixth time this season, and he enters this start with a 6.00 ERA and an expected ERA of 4.28. Chicago’s offense is third in the league in Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+), and it’ll likely lean on that with a chance to sweep New York on the line.
The Mets have dropped five games in a row, though they have ace Freddy Peralta on the mound in this game. After a solid start to the season, Peralta regressed in June, allowing six, one and 10 runs in his last three starts.
He has a 4.83 ERA for the season and ranks in the 57th percentile in expected ERA.
Both of these teams have hit the OVER in the majority of their games, with the Cubs putting up nine or more runs in each game in this series to improve their OVER record to 43-36-1. I expect offense to be the story of the night once again on Thursday.
Cristopher Sanchez UNDER 20.5 Outs Recorded (-123)
Sanchez has been one of the best pitchers in Major League Baseball this season, posting a 1.80 ERA across 16 starts.
Despite that, I think his outs recorded prop is a little too high on Thursday night.
For Sanchez to clear this line, he’d need to complete seven innings against a Washington offense that is one of the best in baseball. The Nationals rank:
- Fifth in wRC+
- First in runs scored
- Fourth in OPS
- 11th in batting average
- Fourth in homeruns
Plus, Washington chased Sanchez after 5.1 innings back in April, picking up four hits and four walks against the Phillies star.
Sanchez has completed seven innings in seven of his 16 starts this season, though those all came in a row from May into early June. He’s failed to clear this line in back-to-back outings, and I think this number is a little high against such an elite scoring offense.
Sanchez can still have a really strong start and fail to clear this outs recorded prop on Thursday.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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