How MLB’s bold new salary cap proposal would affect Royals if it came into play in 2027

Looming over the league like an ominous storm cloud right now is the impending CBA between the MLB and MLBPA which needs to be renewed before next season. The area of contention that everyone is talking about is the salary cap. League owners are in support of it in order to bring more competitive balance to the league, while the player’s union feels that a salary cap would come at the expense of players receiving fair and optimized earnings.

Offers and statements were thrown around from both sides this week. The players union have taken a hard stance on a salary cap as a non-starter and proposed a “competitive-integrity tax” instead to promote spending from the bottom but not affect the top-end earning potential. The league did not appear interested as they countered with a salary cap offer that would see the floor be set at $171.2 million and the ceiling at $245.3 million. Considering the MLBPA’s stance on salary caps, the fear of a strike similar to 1994 has only intensified.

Obviously nothing is concrete and no agreements have been made on anything yet. In all likelihood, considering the MLB was locked out and had a delayed start to the 2022 season before salary caps were really a discussion, with a contentious issue like this, it’s not egregious by any stretch to think things will get uglier between these two sides before they get better

But what if the MLB gets what they want? What if this proposed salary cap comes into play? How would it affect the Royals?

As a perennial smaller market team, the Royals have been more frugal than many in their history. This season, while a little more financially competitive than in years past, the Royals still only have estimated payroll for 2026 of roughly $149 million, as per FanGraphs. For those doing the math at home, the Royals would need to spend over $22 million in order to reach the floor.

How the Royals could spend to hit proposed $171.2 million salary floor in 2027

Let’s say the league finally gets their way like didn’t back in 1994 and the Royals suddenly have to spend over $22 million more just to avoid the salary floor. John Sherman would have to pony up more money – which after the recent offseasons Kansas City have had, would likely be music to many Royals fans ears.

One way they could go about doing this is obviously the traditional way and attempting to lure free agent talent to address some real areas of need. Currently the Royals feature five positions with OPS rates under the current league average mark of .706 that could stand to be immediately addressed.

On top of those five positions in the lineup, the Royals also have real problem when it comes to pitching depth. Their already injury plagued starting rotation has experienced the same issues in their minor league depth. And beyond the back-end and a few middle relief options, the Royals could stand to improve the strength of their major league bullpen.

Looking internally though, there are extension candidates the Royals could look to dish out new offers to. The most notable and pressing one is Kris Bubic, who comes off the books this offseason and has been one of their more stable pieces in the rotation for the past two seasons. Beyond him, there’s names under team control that could be potential extension candidates, such as closer Lucas Erceg, relievers Daniel Lynch IV and Nick Mears, as well as defensive specialist Kyle Isbel out in center field.

On top of that, there are names like Erceg who will have to earn more than their $780,000 minimum salary in 2027 as they enter arbitration, as well as existing arbitration candidates whose salaries stand to increase year-over-year until they hit free agency.

Then, there’s the pre-arb youngsters like Jac Caglianone, Carter Jensen and Noah Cameron that, so long as they continue to develop and don’t regress, could be names the Royals look to build around and find a way to cut deals with to eat into their arbitration years.

Looking further down the road, perhaps if top-end pay is affected for high-level talents and Shohei Ohtani and Juan Soto-type mega deals aren’t nearly as attainable, Royals MVP hopeful Bobby Witt Jr. may be more incentivized to take those $35 million options between 2031 and 2034.

Again, we’re talking about proposals here and negotiations in May will almost surely look different from the final result whenever an agreement is met. However, it’s never to early to start thinking about an MLB where a salary cap is a reality, because who knows what could happen in the months to come.