Celebrity Turned Oscar Nominees? Adam Sandler, Jennifer Lopez and More

This awards season has a familiar theme: redemption.

Once dismissed as mere entertainers or mocked as tabloid fodder, popcorn draws or “just celebrities,” several of this season’s acting contenders are authoring dramatic second acts that could redefine their legacies.

Dwayne Johnson broke down in tears after the world premiere of “The Smashing Machine” in Venice. For two decades, Johnson has been “The Rock,” a muscle-bound box office juggernaut known for his catchphrases, not his craft. Now, with his starring turn in Benny Safdie’s dramatic biopic, he stands at the threshold of something he’s never achieved: his first Academy Award nomination.

Adam Sandler, long derided as the face of juvenile humor, is another viable contender. He stars alongside Oscar winner George Clooney in Noah Baumbach’s Hollywood meta-dramedy “Jay Kelly.” He’s had earlier brushes with respectability — “Punch-Drunk Love” (2002), which earned him a Golden Globe nod, and Netflix’s sports drama “Hustle” (2022), which brought a SAG nomination. But the Oscars remain stubbornly out of reach, raising uncomfortable questions about what the Academy sees when it looks at Sandler.

Jennifer Lopez has been flirting with Oscar glory for nearly three decades, coming close enough to taste it but never quite invited inside. The music biopic “Selena” (1997) introduced her as a serious actress. An acclaimed turn in “Out of Sight” (1998) was met with silence from voters. Then came 2019 and “Hustlers,” where her performance as stripper Ramona Vega felt undeniable. The Golden Globes, SAG and Critics Choice all agreed, but the Academy did not. Her omission became one of that season’s most discussed oversights.

Now, with Bill Condon’s muscular musical adaptation of “Kiss of the Spider Woman,” in which she embodies three distinct roles originated by the legendary Chita Rivera, Lopez is testing whether the Academy’s doors will finally open to her.

“It’s all about a filmmaker betting on them and trusting they can do it,” says a veteran entertainment publicist who has orchestrated such transformations. “When someone thinks of them one way, there’s an unexpectedness to that which catches viewers by surprise.”

The machinery of reinvention requires precision. “It’s about underscoring the reviews and getting people to watch the movies and find out for themselves,” the publicist explains. Strategic media placements matter. “They’re on the cover of New York Magazine, The New York Times and Variety. And it’s a different kind of media that can shift perception.”

The Academy has been seduced by transformation stories before. Robin Williams spent years as a manic comedian and family-film staple before earning four Oscar nominations and winning for “Good Will Hunting” (1997). Mel Gibson leveraged action-hero credibility from the “Mad Max” and “Lethal Weapon” franchises into directorial acclaim, winning best picture for “Braveheart” (1995) and returning to the race two decades later with “Hacksaw Ridge” (2016).

Jonah Hill shed his “Superbad” persona to earn nominations for “Moneyball” (2011) and “The Wolf of Wall Street” (2013). And Kristen Stewart, once synonymous with “Twilight” tabloid melodrama, earned a best actress nod for playing Princess Diana in “Spencer” (2021).

Not every story ends with redemption. Jim Carrey delivered career-defining performances in “The Truman Show” (1998), “Man on the Moon” (1999) and “Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind” (2004). Critics embraced his work, and key precursor awards recognized him. However, the Academy did not. Perhaps voters couldn’t unsee “Ace Ventura” or “Dumb and Dumber,” never reconciling the man talking through his butt with the artist revealing his soul.

“There’s a relatability to that,” a publicist observes about comeback narratives. “Everyone is discovering this together, and that’s a communal experience people can celebrate.”

But the path doesn’t always have a happy ending. Eddie Murphy came within reach of Oscar gold for “Dreamgirls” (2006) before losing at the finish line. Pop star Ariana Grande, returning this year with the musical sequel “Wicked: For Good” as the lovable Glinda, is undoubtedly hoping for a different outcome in the supporting actress race.

And let’s not forget: big stars mean big ratings. The more people recognize the nominees, the more likely they are to tune in to see if they’ll win — especially if the performances are indelible.

*** = PREDICTED WINNER
(All predicted nominees below are in alphabetical order)

Best Picture
“Hamnet” (Focus Features)
“A House of Dynamite” (Netflix)
“It Was Just an Accident” (Neon)
“Jay Kelly” (Netflix)
“Marty Supreme” (A24)
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.) ***
“The Secret Agent” (Neon)
“Sentimental Value” (Neon)
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)

Director
Paul Thomas Anderson, “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.) ***
Ryan Coogler, “Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
Jafar Panahi, “It Was Just an Accident” (Neon)
Josh Safdie, “Marty Supreme” (A24)
Chloé Zhao, “Hamnet” (Focus Features)

Actor
Timothée Chalamet, “Marty Supreme” (A24) ***
Leonardo DiCaprio, “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Ethan Hawke, “Blue Moon” (Sony Pictures Classics)
Dwayne Johnson, “The Smashing Machine” (A24)
Wagner Moura, “The Secret Agent” (Neon)

Actress
Jessie Buckley, “Hamnet” (Focus Features) ***
Cynthia Erivo, “Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)
Kate Hudson, “Song Sung Blue” (Focus Features)
Chase Infiniti, “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Renate Reinsve, “Sentimental Value” (Neon)

Supporting Actor
Benicio del Toro, “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Paul Mescal, “Hamnet” (Focus Features)
Sean Penn, “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.) ***
Andrew Scott, “Blue Moon” (Sony Pictures Classics)
Stellan Skarsgård, “Sentimental Value” (Neon)

Supporting Actress
Elle Fanning, “Sentimental Value” (Neon)
Ariana Grande, “Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures) ***
Regina Hall, “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Gwyneth Paltrow, “Marty Supreme” (A24)
Teyana Taylor, “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)

Casting
“Hamnet” (Focus Features) — Nina Gold
“Marty Supreme” (A24) — Jennifer Venditti
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.) — Cassandra Kulukundis
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) — Francine Maisler ***
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures) — Tiffany Little Canfield, Bernard Telsey

Original Screenplay
“Jay Kelly” (Netflix) — Noah Baumbach, Emily Mortimer
“Marty Supreme” (A24) — Ronald Bronstein, Josh Safdie
“The Secret Agent” (Neon) — Kleber Mendonça Filho
“Sentimental Value” (Neon) — Joachim Trier and Eskil Vogt ***
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) — Ryan Coogler

Adapted Screenplay
“Bugonia” (Focus Features) — Will Tracy
“Hamnet” (Focus Features) — Chloé Zhao ***
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.) — Paul Thomas Anderson
“Song Sung Blue” (Focus Features) — Craig Brewer
“Train Dreams” (Netflix) — Clint Bentley and Greg Kwedar

Animated Feature
“Arco” (Neon)
“In Your Dreams” (Netflix)
“KPop Demon Hunters” (Netflix) ***
“Little Amélie or the Character of Rain” (GKids)
“Zootopia 2” (Walt Disney Pictures)

Production Design
“Avatar: Fire and Ash” (20th Century Studios)
“Frankenstein” (Netflix)
“Marty Supreme” (A24)
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures) ***

Cinematography
“Hamnet” (Focus Features)
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) ***
“Train Dreams” (Netflix)
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)

Costume Design
“Frankenstein” (Netflix)
“Hamnet” (Focus Features)
“Hedda” (Amazon MGM Studios)
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures) ***

Film Editing
“Hamnet” (Focus Features)
“A House of Dynamite” (Netflix)
“Marty Supreme” (A24)
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.) ***
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)

Makeup and Hairstyling
“Bugonia” (Focus Features)
“Frankenstein” (Netflix) ***
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
“The Smashing Machine” (A24)
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)

Sound
“Avatar: Fire and Ash” (20th Century Studios)
“F1” (Apple Original Films/Warner Bros.)
“A House of Dynamite” (Netflix)
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures) ***

Visual Effects
“Avatar: Fire and Ash” (20th Century Studios) ***
“Frankenstein” (Netflix)
“Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning” (Paramount Pictures)
“Superman” (Warner Bros.)
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)

Original Score
“Hamnet” (Focus Features) — Max Richter
“A House of Dynamite” (Netflix) — Volker Bertelmann
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.) — Jonny Greenwood
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) — Ludwig Göransson ***
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures) — Stephen Schwartz

Original Song
“Golden” from “KPop Demon Hunters” (Netflix) ***
“I Lied to You” from “Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
“Train Dreams” from “Train Dreams” (Netflix)
“The Girl in the Bubble” from “Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)
“Zoo” from “Zootopia 2” (Walt Disney Pictures)

Documentary Feature
“The Alabama Solution” (HBO Documentary Films)
“The Eyes of Ghana” (U.S. Acquisition TBD)
“The Perfect Neighbor” (Netflix) ***
“The Tale of Silyan” (National Geographic)
“2000 Meters to Andriivka” (PBS)

International Feature
“It Was Just an Accident” from France (Neon) ***
“No Other Choice” from South Korea (Neon)
“The Secret Agent” from Brazil (Neon)
“Sentimental Value” from Norway (Neon)
“The Voice of Hind Rajab” from Tunisia (U.S. Distributor TBD)

Top 5 projected Oscar nomination leaders (films): “One Battle After Another” (14); “Wicked: For Good” (12); “Sinners” (11); “Hamnet” (10); and “Sinners” (11); “Marty Supreme” (8)

Top 5 projected Oscar nomination leaders (studios): Warner Bros. (27); Netflix (17); Neon (15); Focus Features (14); Universal Pictures (12)